Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 5:07 PM
Rates have been rising rapidly in 2022 in general as the market quickly repositions for a big shift in Fed policy. The Fed sets short term rates and b...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 11:05 AM
My friend David had his id stolen and now he’s just Dav. Having anything stolen is not a laughing matter, and since we’re in the money business, lende...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since early March in terms of outright improvement. The catch is that they were at the highest levels ...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 2:17 PM
Black Knight's latest Mortgage Monitor report was released this morning and it provided more timely insight on home price appreciation than last week'...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 12:23 PM
“Rob, my capital markets gal eliminated our ability to lock overnight at yesterday’s rates. I think that she’s being unreasonable. Your thoughts?” No,...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 11:38 AM
NFP Friday rarely falls on the first day of the month/quarter. The last time it happened in April was 2016, and it was wholly uneventful. The same m...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:26 PM
Home prices have been on a tear since late 2020 despite generally higher rates in 2021. In the past few months, rates have upped the ante by surging a...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:20 PM
Rate Recovery Stumbles, But Jury Still Out
As we said in the run up to today's trading session, we need to s...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 2:37 PM
Total construction spending rose in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.704 trillion, a 0.5 percent increase from January and 11.2 per...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 12:09 PM
Bonds got off to a much weaker start on Friday as "new month, new quarter" tradeflows leave sellers firmly in control. This began right out of the ga...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 11:08 AM
I think that we can all agree that in 2017 not a single interviewee got the answer correct to, “Where do you see yourself 5 years from now?” Heck, pro...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:56 PM
The headline "lowest rates in a week" may not be too sensational or even that informative at first glance, but in today's case, it's big news. You'd ...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:34 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
The day began fairly well for the bond market...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 10:53 AM
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now. Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrows for investor...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:49 PM
Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day
Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:18 PM
There hasn't been much to get excited about when it comes to mortgage rates in the month of March--at least not in a positive way. Negative excitemen...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 10:59 AM
As we edge toward Easter, which isn’t until April 17 this year, the Dallas Fed has released a report on housing prices… have they become unhinged from...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 10:35 AM
For most of 2010 through the middle of 2013, the purchase mortgage market languished as homebuyers were reluctant to come back to the table after the ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 9:52 AM
Oil prices aren't everything when it comes to the bond market, but they've been an important domino a few places farther up the chain due to their imp...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 4:05 PM
Another Compelling Bounce. Is This Another Head Fake?
Much like Wednesday of last week, bonds managed to pos...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 3:46 PM
In a normal mortgage rate environment, it's common to see a remarkably equal distribution of good and bad days with rates moving lower or higher vers...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 2:03 PM
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 11:54 AM
When did “beauty parlors” become “beauty shops” become “salons” and “spas?” Our industry doesn’t have a monopoly on change, and in my recent travels a...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 10:06 AM
Not that there was any reason to doubt inflation as the key consideration in the bond market right now, but those looking for extra confirmation can e...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 4:28 PM
Last week's big news was the rapid jump in rates. In fact, it was right in line with the worst week in decades in terms of the total increase in the ...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 3:58 PM
Yields Recover After New Long-Term Highs Overnight
Treasury yields rose to new long-term highs during the fi...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 12:26 PM
The new week begins with longer-dated bonds recovering significantly better than short-term notes after Friday's big selling spree. In fact, the shor...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 8:47 AM
This isn’t a commentary. It’s a “next level experience!” How are we in the week ending the first quarter already? Here’s some news that will be greete...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 7:38 PM
While weeks in 2022 have been terrible for mortgage rates, we've always been able to say "at least it wasn't as bad as that one week in 2013." We can'...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 4:30 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Snowball Sell-Off?
Seemingly out of the blue, and without any clear connectio...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 2:30 PM
Friday’s pending home sales report was the hat trick; all three home sales measures declined last month . While new and existing home sales have had ...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 1:51 PM
Thursday may have seen some bond market weakness, but it was the kind we could tolerate considering yields didn't make new highs on the week. In that...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 11:08 AM
“A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.” Lenders sometimes grapple with the former, always deal with the latter. In my trave...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:54 PM
No Easy Victory For The Consolidation
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:28 PM
Tuesday (March 22) saw mortgage rates at their highest levels since late 2018 with top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios being quoted 4.75% by th...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 11:29 AM
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen since the Fed's first notable revision to the policy outlook in September 2021. ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 9:57 AM
The state of most commodity prices around the world? Prices are higher. What is the current state of donating blood? I tried donating blood again yest...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 9:52 AM
While they began to become homeowners at a more advanced age than many of their predecessors and encountered an abnormally high number of obstacles ge...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:34 PM
The month of March has amounted to a very long night for the mortgage market with rates not only moving higher at one of the fastest paces on record, ...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:17 PM
Best Rally in Weeks. Should We Care?
Days like Wednesday remind us of days like February 11th. At the time...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 1:58 PM
The data is in for Q4, 2021, and it was not a good quarter for mortgage profitability according to the Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance report f...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 1:24 PM
The correlation between interest rates and mortgage refinance demand is extremely strong and predictable. Rates go up, refis go down. Rates skyrocke...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 10:45 AM
When yields/rates have risen as much as we've seen so far in 2022, and especially when the 10yr hit the 2.40% target that we didn't expect to see quit...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 9:48 AM
Another day of travel, heading to California and its Central Coast. The state has seen its share of house price appreciation, as has the nation, and i...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 7:27 PM
Rates added to the record-breaking move higher today. The carnage has now earned early 2022 the dubious distinction of being the biggest 3-month rate...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 4:28 PM
Snowball Selling Pushes 10yr Toward 2.4%, Mortgage Rates to High 4's
The global market jumped on the bandwag...
