Tue, Jun 28 2022, 10:59 AM
You can rest assured that no animals were harmed in the making of this commentary! But the harm felt by stockholders during the last several months ha...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM
Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter). After hitting t...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 3:43 PM
Pending Home Sales hit their most recent peak in October according to data reported in November, 2021 by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 10:56 AM
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be rig...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM
In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022's role is to take things back in the o...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 12:56 PM
Last month's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau was a real downer. It showed sharp declines in sales and a puzzlingly abrupt jump in inventor...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 11:23 AM
Knocking on wood is an apotropaic (averting bad luck) tradition of literally touching, tapping, or knocking on wood, or merely stating that one is doi...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:17 AM
Rates may be much higher in each of the past 3 months, but those with mortgages are making their payments with record-setting regularity. The overall...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM
Most of today's mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Well, a few things could b...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 10:24 AM
Crypto and blockchain technologies have some valid applications but when it’s just for investment, there are tons of scams. (And what would we do for ...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:45 AM
One topic of conversation at the MBAH conference is the quote making the rounds, “Marry the house, date the rate,” a nightmare for capital markets and...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
An increase in home purchase activity drove mortgage applications higher during the week ended June 17. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said it...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields... All of the above moved steadily lower in th...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates surged well into the 6% range last week before quickly cooling down after Wednesday's Fed announcement. The average top tier rate was ...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 4:17 PM
April, May, and June of 2020 were the only 3 months where Existing Home Sales suffered as a result of the pandemic. During those three months, the an...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week's big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 10:56 AM
Here in Honolulu, talk among those gathered for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference includes the rise in adjustable-rate mortgage lending by depositorie...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 8:06 PM
In a year where mortgage rate volatility has been extreme, this week made everything else look tame by comparison. While it will never show up in wee...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It's been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 10:30 AM
There are strange things going on out there. Revlon filing for bankruptcy. Atlanta’s mayor calling for limits on investors buying homes. Delta Airline...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday. Clarity from the...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning's headline suggested a sideways, v...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 11:18 AM
As might have been expected considering the sixth consecutive drop in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) Housing Market Index release...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 11:14 AM
If you can't think of a word or phrase, say, "I forgot the English word for it." That way people will think you're bilingual instead of an idiot. It i...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 6:48 PM
The pace of the spike in mortgage rates over the past several days has been nothing but staggering --especially considering it began when rates were ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 6:06 PM
Builders are increasingly nervous about the impact inflation and higher interest rates might have on prospective home buyers in coming months. The Nat...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM
Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting
Whether we're talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM
Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending ...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM
It's hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today's. 4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 10:26 AM
“Do you know that humans eat more bananas than monkeys? Think about it, when was the last time you ate a monkey?” Words and terms are important. At th...
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 8:29 AM
Mortgage application volume increased during the week ended June 10 after four straight weeks of declines. However, the overall gains shown by data fr...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 5:31 PM
Yes, mortgage rates really moved above 6% yesterday for the first time since 2008. Yesterday's coverage addressed the core of the matter (definitely ...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?
Ideally, you've been locking at app all month as the only argument for float...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:03 PM
While we await FEMA to declare the Yellowstone area a disaster (page down and spend 40 seconds watching the video) is “niches to riches” the new infor...
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM
***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn't fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:57 PM
It's hard to quantify just how bad today was for mortgage rates because there's no quality day-over-day mortgage rate data from before 2009 (when we c...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM
One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade
At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM
Bonds had two options after last Friday's sell-off. They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin...
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 10:03 AM
Life is too short to waste time matching socks. Yes, time flies. Remember a year ago, when a) the announcement of Juneteenth, the new Federal holiday,...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 10:58 PM
2022 has already had its fair share of bad news for mortgage rates, but this week was not to be outdone. It began as just another reasonably bad week...
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM
Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear
If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf...
