Mon, Mar 8 2021, 9:43 AM
Let’s start the week with a gaggle of questions. Do you feel old knowing that Taylor Swift is older than the four Beatles were when they broke up? Hav...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 5:28 PM
Huge Jobs Report, Logical Weakness, and a Nice Bounce, But...
Bonds did quite well today considering Powell'...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 11:54 AM
A new policy paper from the Urban Institute (UI) looks at the recent amendments to the senior preferred stock purchase agreement (PSPA) agreed to by o...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 11:43 AM
As Black Knight has repeatedly predicted, end of February expirations drove the number of mortgage loans in forbearance lower this past week. There wa...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 11:37 AM
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has proposed to delay the mandatory compliance date of the General Qualified Mortgage (QM) final rule ...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 10:30 AM
Today began with Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 379k vs 182k forecast. Last month's numbers were revised up to 166k from 49k. The unemployment rate t...
Fri, Mar 5 2021, 9:59 AM
In the legal field, virtual litigation is thought to be here to stay, vaccine or no vaccine. And as the pandemic continues, and remote hiring continue...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly today after Q&A session with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. What did he say to cause such drama? Actually, it's mo...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 4:19 PM
Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It)
From this AM: "some recent analysis h...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 2:57 PM
There seems to be a fair amount of surprise and confusion surrounding today's bond market sell-off in response to Fed Chair Powell's Q&A with the WSJ....
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 9:56 AM
Welcome to the only day where the date is a command. Owners of shopping malls wish they could command everyone to go shopping in one. When was the las...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 9:29 AM
Monday and Tuesday brought a stronger start for bonds and, with it, hopes that a broader bounce was in the works. Wednesday dashed those hopes and in...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 3:51 PM
MBS Outperform, But Bonds Fail To Confirm The Bounce
Tuesday's gains increased odds that a friendly bounce w...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 10:52 AM
To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary with an interview with STRATMOR Group’s resident recovering accountant Jim Cameron on handy metri...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 9:30 AM
Bonds had a great day yesterday--not so much because the rally covered a ton of ground, but rather because it helped build a case for the end of the m...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 8:25 AM
Mortgage application volume rose for the first time in four weeks during the week ended February 26, but it was only a marginal increase. The Mortgage...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:40 PM
In the past 2 decades , there have been 6 months where mortgage rates rose at least 50 basis points. February 2021 was one of them. Moreover, it was o...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:25 PM
Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It?
A fairly flat morning gave way to an afternoon rally, especia...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 12:22 PM
CoreLogic says home prices in January were 10 percent higher than a year earlier. It was the first double digit increase in the company's Home Price I...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 10:28 AM
What happens to homeowners and landlords when the federal, state, and local protections put in place during the pandemic go away? The Consumer Financi...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 10:18 AM
As a kid, magic tricks are amazing because we think there is magic. As an adult, magics tricks are amazing because we know there is no magic. Lenders ...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 9:34 AM
- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)
- 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)
...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 4:00 PM
Construction expenditures started 2021 displaying the same imbalance between the growth of residential and non-residential spending that had dominated...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 3:57 PM
Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy
- New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 10:13 AM
After Friday's impressive (and much-needed) bounce toward lower yields, the new week/month took on even greater importance than normal as a venue for ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 9:36 AM
With the jump up in mortgage rates Thursday, and the move back down Friday, a few lock desk personnel wrote to me over the weekend asking about ways o...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:49 PM
Rising rates have been on the menu for months, but the drama kicked into a higher gear this week. Maybe you heard about this? We've certainly been dis...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:47 PM
Nice Bounce! Now What?
- An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 2:42 PM
Black Knight reports a second increase in the number of loans in pandemic related forbearance plans in as many weeks. Forborne loans rose by 21,000 du...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:28 AM
Huh? Rates don’t continually go down and then stay there for an indefinite period of time? No, they don’t. There’s this opinion piece in the Wall Stre...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:15 AM
Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 16.1 percent in January compared to a 22.4 percent...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 9:11 AM
Deadlines for COVID-19 related relief for borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) mortgages were extended by the Federal Housing Finance Agenc...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates WISH they were still at 2.97%--the number conveyed today by Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Freddie's data is accurate when it comes to ca...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 4:58 PM
Just When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse
Staggeringly weak day for bonds.
2.0 MBS coupon is now ...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:47 AM
January marked the fifth straight month that the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has reported a decline in its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:44 AM
As hope for a recovery drawing nearer helps push rates higher, Carol K. writes, “I hate it when people ask me what I do for fun because there is no cl...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:37 AM
It got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringi...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:33 PM
As of today, you'd have to go back to June 2020 to see higher mortgage rates. This is courtesy of an ongoing move in the bond market that has longer-t...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now?
Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bo...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 12:28 PM
New home sales continued the turnaround, started in December, that ended three straight months of slowing sales. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:49 AM
Yesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:02 AM
There’s a cost to staying at home as much as we do. I went to the doctor the other day. She told me, “I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news i...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 8:43 AM
The volume of mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinancing fell for the third straight time during the week ended February 19. The Mor...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 4:37 PM
Glimmer of Hope in Bonds, But It Might Be a Trap
Bonds started the day in roughly unchanged territory and pr...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 11:25 AM
Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) report that the country ended the year with more than a 10 percent a...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:56 AM
(To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) Being home schooled was the goodest thing I ever did! Disparities in mortg...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:04 AM
In the past few weeks--and especially the past few days--we've seen a sharp spike in MBS yields relative to Treasury yields. And yes, the Treasury yi...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 6:06 PM
There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgag...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 5:00 PM
Huge Mortgage-Specific Weakness
The rate reset continues. Just when you thought 10yr yields surely couldn't...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 10:15 AM
Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market pa...
