Fri, Apr 2 2021, 9:40 AM
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week suggesting nonfarm payrolls could come in closer to 1 million as opposed to the median forecast of 647k...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates have been trying to find a ceiling in the past 3 weeks after rising at the quickest pace in years. That search seemed to be going well ...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:09 PM
Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday
Thursdays have been almost universally bad in 2021--a point that was drive...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 10:55 AM
March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bri...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 10:45 AM
Worried about it being April Fool’s Day? Don’t be. We’ll take care of you. Today's podcast includes a discussion on extended locks, as well as an inte...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today after failing to capitalize on a hopeful move in bond markets yesterday. Bonds--particularly mortgage-bac...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. ...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 11:10 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard an...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 11:03 AM
The newly installed Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released her first quarterly report on the agency to Congress o...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 10:57 AM
February's pending home sales suffered a double digit month-over-month decline in February and fell below the pace a year earlier for the first time i...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 10:54 AM
What word becomes shorter when you add two letters to it? Short. (There’s the cutting-edge wit this commentary is known for!) Time can play tricks on ...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:50 PM
There are a few interesting developments for mortgage rates today--especially in light of last week's striking discrepancy between Freddie's weekly su...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:49 PM
'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly wo...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 12:16 PM
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) House Price Index (HPI) all show that the growth o...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 11:14 AM
The demand for shipping on the Suez Canal never stopped. (Do you think this conversation ever took place on the bridge of the Ever Given? “I bet you c...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 9:36 AM
Bonds remain in the midst of a very large and sustained sell-off. Generally speaking, the rising rate environment is a logical byproduct of pande...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 4:27 PM
New Week, New Weakness
The new week wasted very little time in reinforcing the realities of 2021. This is a...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 2:03 PM
Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 17.7 percent in February compared to a 16.1 percen...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 1:58 PM
The age of the U.S. housing stock is, to a certain extent, a reflection of the decline in new home construction since the onset of the housing crisis....
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 10:22 AM
Today's audio version of the commentary is always available. (This week’s, sponsored by The STRATMOR Group, has a short interview with me today on how...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 10:21 AM
Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds co...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:14 PM
The biggest story for the mortgage and housing market so far in 2021 has been the big spike in mortgage rates. It has been more abrupt and covered mor...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:13 PM
Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short
Insult, meet injury? Oh, you're already acqua...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 12:15 PM
For the moment at least, the number of loans in forbearance are heading downhill and picking up speed. Black Knight says the number of active plans de...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 10:46 AM
1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confi...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 10:39 AM
I just finished my weekly 3 minute “abs of steel” workout, and it’s time for a rant! A wealth tax? How does the Federal government pull that off? Is a...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 3:37 PM
Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds
Although bonds won't be able to say they b...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 2:52 PM
It's no secret that 2021 has been a rough year for mortgage rates so far. They've moved higher on all but a few weeks, and exclusively higher if we on...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 10:16 AM
After spending millions of dollars studying the issue, a blue-ribbon panel found that statistics show that teen pregnancy drops dramatically after age...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 10:06 AM
Today could be the day. If markets were to close right now, it would be the first day in 2021 where bonds could say they'd rallied 4 days in a row or...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates put in their 3rd decent performance of the week today amid relatively calm conditions in the underlying bond market. These sorts of win...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 3:44 PM
Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps
This morning's weaker Durable Goods data had ...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 11:16 AM
My cat Myrtle is not a huge basketball fan. And she certainly wasn’t interested in my idea recently to find fifteen people willing to pony up $1 milli...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 9:27 AM
Bonds are starting the day in roughly unchanged territory after trying to go on a stronger run in the overnight session. If the remainder of the week...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 8:50 AM
Mortgage originators' profits remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2020, although they were down considerably from the previous period. The Mortga...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 8:36 AM
Mortgage application volume declined for the third consecutive time during the week ended March 19 as refinancing continued to retreat. The Mortgage B...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower at a decent pace today for the 2nd day in a row. The average lender is still offering the same "note rate" compared to yest...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 3:33 PM
Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight h...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 11:01 AM
The two-month rally in new home sales ended abruptly and definitively in February. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Developm...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:59 AM
Mortgage delinquency rates rose in February, ending eight straight months of recovery from the spike that followed the onset of the pandemic. Black Kn...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:47 AM
Are you looking for signs of the times? The Wall Street Journal, along with supermarket flyers everywhere, tells us that there are more real-estate ag...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:40 AM
Fed Chair Powell will be in the hot seat again today, only this time in the form of congressional testimony on the CARES Act. The prepared remarks fo...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:34 PM
A new Freddie Mac survey found that both homeowners and renters are still concerned about their ability to pay their mortgage or their monthly rent as...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:29 PM
Sales of existing homes fell sharply in February after two months of modest gains. The National Association of Realtors® said pre-owned single-family ...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing
Rates have tried to convince us that the worst is over on several...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 12:19 PM
Fannie Mae made a few modest changes to its economic projections this month as consumer spending in January was above expectations and interest rates ...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 10:31 AM
Is your business interest rate independent? Are you girding your loins? How is your overhead? If lenders are selling into the same MBS market, executi...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 9:51 AM
Last week was the 7th straight week of higher bond yields--something we haven't seen since Q2 2009, when bonds were undergoing their first correction ...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 4:47 PM
Fed Confirms Market's Fear; Bonds Manage to Hold This Week's Range
The last time bonds sold off for 6 consec...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 12:19 PM
The number of loans in forbearance experienced the largest weekly decline since early January as servicers reviewed the hundreds of thousands that are...
