MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
Something remarkable has happened. Well, it's remarkable relative to the recent trend of shunning domestic economic data in favor of European headlines. After an extremely boring overnight session, which saw little by way of volume or volatility, and after the 8:30am economic data (Durable Goods) looked set to confirm the aforementioned trend, Weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence actually marked something of a turning point for Treasuries and MBS. Please note that "turning point" is a grossly exaggerated term in this case. For instance, Fannie 3.0s had drifted down from 102-27 at the open to 102-25--a whopping 1/16th of a point-- before moving up to 102-28 after the data. So this "bounce" is happening in an inconsequential 3/32nds range. While this isn't exactly exciting, it's better than a sharp stick in the eye that could have been waiting for domestic bond markets on the other side of the weekend's Cyprus Bailout. The Euro isn't melting down (or up), tacitly suggesting that markets are stabilizing in earnest or at least taking an extended time to prepare for the next move. Then there's the matter of volume. It's low--so low in fact that we might hesitate to read too much into any ostensible reaction to data. Then again, markets are sideways, so they're not reading much into anything anyway.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Pricing as of 11:08 AM EST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
10:23AM :
Relatively Tepid, Slightly Positive Response To Data
Now that the last of this morning's economic data is out, markets are showing their hand. The first few minutes into the 10am seemed like a frustrated and underdone attempt to rally on weaker data. Even though bond markets are now improving, it's taken 15 minutes to see more than a 1bp movement in 10yr yields or more than a tick in MBS prices.
The takeaway is that we're through the morning data with no major damage, but clearly lacking inspiration or conviction. If there's a tilt, it's slightly positive at the moment. Euros are in a consolidation pattern that could inform the next move for domestic markets if they see a technical break.
The takeaway is that we're through the morning data with no major damage, but clearly lacking inspiration or conviction. If there's a tilt, it's slightly positive at the moment. Euros are in a consolidation pattern that could inform the next move for domestic markets if they see a technical break.
10:09AM :
ECON: New Home Sales Weaker Than Expected
- Feb SFR Sales at 411k vs 422k consensus
- Last month revised slightly lower from 437 to 431
- Biggest detraction from headline: Northeast -13.3 pct
- Midwest +13.7, South -9.7, West -2.1
Sales of new single-family houses in February 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.6 percent (±20.4%)* below the revised January rate of 431,000, but is 12.3 percent (±23.3%)* above the February 2012 estimate of 366,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2013 was $246,800; the average sales price was $313,700. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 152,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate.
- Last month revised slightly lower from 437 to 431
- Biggest detraction from headline: Northeast -13.3 pct
- Midwest +13.7, South -9.7, West -2.1
Sales of new single-family houses in February 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.6 percent (±20.4%)* below the revised January rate of 431,000, but is 12.3 percent (±23.3%)* above the February 2012 estimate of 366,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2013 was $246,800; the average sales price was $313,700. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 152,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate.
10:05AM :
ECON: Consumer Confidence Declines, Misses Expectations
- 59.7 vs 68.0 Consensus
- Present Situation 57.9 vs 61.4 last month
- Expectations 60.9 vs 72.4 last month
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in February, declined in March. The Index now stands at 59.7 (1985=100), down from 68.0 in February. The Present Situation Index decreased to 57.9 from 61.4. The Expectations Index declined to 60.9 from 72.4 last month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 14.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer Confidence fell sharply in March, following February’s uptick. This month’s retreat was driven primarily by a sharp decline in expectations, although consumers were also more pessimistic in their assessment of current conditions. The loss of confidence, particularly expectations, mirrors the losses experienced this past December and January. The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident.”
- Present Situation 57.9 vs 61.4 last month
- Expectations 60.9 vs 72.4 last month
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in February, declined in March. The Index now stands at 59.7 (1985=100), down from 68.0 in February. The Present Situation Index decreased to 57.9 from 61.4. The Expectations Index declined to 60.9 from 72.4 last month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 14.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer Confidence fell sharply in March, following February’s uptick. This month’s retreat was driven primarily by a sharp decline in expectations, although consumers were also more pessimistic in their assessment of current conditions. The loss of confidence, particularly expectations, mirrors the losses experienced this past December and January. The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident.”
9:19AM :
Home Prices Accelerate in January 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Data through January 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed average home prices
increased 7.3% for the 10-City Composite and 8.1% for the 20-City Composite in the 12 months ending in
January 2013.
All 20 cities posted year-over-year gains with Phoenix leading the way with a gain of 23.2%. Nineteen of the twenty cities showed acceleration in their year-over-year returns. Despite posting a positive double-digit annual return, Detroit was the only city to show a deceleration. After 28 months of negative annual returns, New York came into positive territory in January.
All 20 cities posted year-over-year gains with Phoenix leading the way with a gain of 23.2%. Nineteen of the twenty cities showed acceleration in their year-over-year returns. Despite posting a positive double-digit annual return, Detroit was the only city to show a deceleration. After 28 months of negative annual returns, New York came into positive territory in January.
9:16AM :
Moderately Weaker After Uneventful Overnight Trading
Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am made for a brief pop of volume, but not much movement against what had already been a quiet overnight session. The trading range in Treasuries was exceptionally well-contained by yesterday's range, and that continues to be the case following Case Shiller Home Price data.
While trading volumes and volatility were light overnight, it wasn't for a lack of noise in Europe. Cypriot Banks will now be closed until Thursday with deposits over 100k likely to see a 30% haircut. When they reopen, capital controls will restrict what can be withdrawn, a state of affairs Cyprus' president says is "very temporary."
We got a laugh from a story on an IMF economist saying that central banks could grow too powerful, but given the generally soporific tempo of relevant information, it was one of the only interesting stories all night. Markets are either on Spring Break or waiting on Italian news, but clearly they're not "all here" today.
As for trading levels, Fannie 3.0 MBS are currently 3 ticks weaker from yesterday's close at 102-26 and have been in a 2 tick range between there and 102-25 all morning. 10yr yields are just under are nearly 2bps higher at 1.939 and have maintained a 1.92 -1.94 range most of the night (5's and 7's are noticeably weaker than the rest of the curve, in preparation for this week's auctions). S&P futures are up about 3 points from 4pm levels.
Next data is at 10am with Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. The 2yr Treasury note auction at 1pm is a non-event. Other than that, we have to remain on the lookout for EU headlines, even if good examples have been hard to find so far.
While trading volumes and volatility were light overnight, it wasn't for a lack of noise in Europe. Cypriot Banks will now be closed until Thursday with deposits over 100k likely to see a 30% haircut. When they reopen, capital controls will restrict what can be withdrawn, a state of affairs Cyprus' president says is "very temporary."
We got a laugh from a story on an IMF economist saying that central banks could grow too powerful, but given the generally soporific tempo of relevant information, it was one of the only interesting stories all night. Markets are either on Spring Break or waiting on Italian news, but clearly they're not "all here" today.
As for trading levels, Fannie 3.0 MBS are currently 3 ticks weaker from yesterday's close at 102-26 and have been in a 2 tick range between there and 102-25 all morning. 10yr yields are just under are nearly 2bps higher at 1.939 and have maintained a 1.92 -1.94 range most of the night (5's and 7's are noticeably weaker than the rest of the curve, in preparation for this week's auctions). S&P futures are up about 3 points from 4pm levels.
Next data is at 10am with Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. The 2yr Treasury note auction at 1pm is a non-event. Other than that, we have to remain on the lookout for EU headlines, even if good examples have been hard to find so far.
8:45AM :
ECON: Durable Goods Stronger But Internal Components Mixed
- Headline Durables +5.7 vs +3.8 Consensus
- Excluding Transportation -0.5 vs +0.5 Consensus
- Excluding Defense +4.5 vs +0.5 Consensus - Ex-Defense and Aircraft -2.7 vs -1.2 Consensus
- Market Reaction: bond markets were at their weakest levels of the morning ahead of the report and have improved microscopically since then. Trading ranges are exceptionally narrow.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $12.4 billion or 5.7 percent to $232.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up five of the last six months, followed a 3.8 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 4.5 percent.
Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $13.3 billion or 21.7 percent to $74.4 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $9.0 billion.
- Excluding Transportation -0.5 vs +0.5 Consensus
- Excluding Defense +4.5 vs +0.5 Consensus - Ex-Defense and Aircraft -2.7 vs -1.2 Consensus
- Market Reaction: bond markets were at their weakest levels of the morning ahead of the report and have improved microscopically since then. Trading ranges are exceptionally narrow.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $12.4 billion or 5.7 percent to $232.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up five of the last six months, followed a 3.8 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 4.5 percent.
Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $13.3 billion or 21.7 percent to $74.4 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $9.0 billion.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Victor Burek : "new year optimism wearing off"
Brent Borcherding : "I'm guessing people who are missing more from their paycheck in 2013, when they were barely getting by in 2012 aren't too confident!"
Jeff Anderson : "Home sales will be blames on the blizzard."
Ted Rood : "How bout a little MB S love in return??"
Victor Burek : "wonder what they will blame it on"
Cory Bannerman : "wow thats a big miss for consumer confidence"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US MARCH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 59.7 (CONSENSUS 68.0) VS FEB REVISED 68.0 (PREVIOUS 69.6) - CONFERENCE BOARD "
Victor Burek : "that data might help"
Victor Burek : "sounds like damage control after yesterday's template mistake"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "well that is not good news for bonds"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - IMF TO PUBLISH STATEMENT ON ITALY FINANCIAL STABILITY AT 1700 GMT, EXPRESSING "SUBSTANTIALLY POSITIVE" VIEW OF BANKING SYSTEM - SOURCES "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US JAN 20-METRO AREA HOME PRICES +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT) VS +0.2 PCT IN DEC- S&P/CASE-SHILLER "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JANUARY HOME PRICES IN 20 METRO AREAS +1.0 PCT SEASONALLY ADJ (CONSENSUS +0.9 PCT) VS +0.9 PCT IN DECEMBER- S&P/CASE-SHILLER "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. FEB DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION -0.5 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS JAN +2.9 PCT (PREV +2.3 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US FEB DURABLES ORDERS +5.7 PCT (CONSENSUS +3.8 PCT) VS JAN -3.8 PCT (PREV -4.9 PCT) "
Jeff Anderson : "GM, all. Another Euro equity dive just happened. Who's running their mouth now?"
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