Today, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 3:26 PM
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 4:58 PM
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:37 AM
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:25 PM
Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:02 PM
One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to u...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 10:25 AM
Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than t...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:59 PM
Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data
Bonds lost ground over the weekend as new...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:41 PM
The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rat...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 12:26 PM
Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the "risk-on" vibes following more news...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 4:45 PM
Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged
Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 2:44 PM
In terms of the market movement that underlies and dictates mortgage rate movement, today looked a lot like yesterday. Things started strong and fade...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 11:49 AM
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 5:06 PM
Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win
There's not much to say about today's trading session. MBS and Tre...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 4:32 PM
It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they're driv...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 11:07 AM
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting
In a small vacuum, today's Fed announcement had a noticeably...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 3:52 PM
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probab...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 12:34 PM
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 3:37 PM
Low Volatility Session Ahead of Fed Day
4 out of the year's 8 Fed announcements include an updated dot plot ...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 3:07 PM
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enoug...
Tue, Mar 18 2025, 11:37 AM
Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor's ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 4:12 PM
Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday
Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend. As such, one might assume that Monday...
Mon, Mar 17 2025, 11:57 AM
After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET. At first glance, it should have been help...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 6:22 PM
Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker
Friday's trading session was the most uneventful of the week. It...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 3:38 PM
Despite some ups and downs on a small scale, mortgage rates have been sideways in the bigger picture. That's a good thing if the latest refi applicat...
Fri, Mar 14 2025, 9:29 AM
It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations. Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any ...
Thu, Mar 13 2025, 4:25 PM
Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses
You won't always be able to count on the market dynamics we've seen ove...
Thu, Mar 13 2025, 3:38 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday and they were on track to remain unchanged today. In fact, the average lender o...
Thu, Mar 13 2025, 10:40 AM
Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally i...
Wed, Mar 12 2025, 4:09 PM
Why Aren't Bonds Happier About CPI?
For the 2nd month in a row, the market's reaction to a CPI/PPI report en...
Wed, Mar 12 2025, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates have moved up over the past 2 days, ultimately hitting the highest levels since February 24th today. While that sounds somewhat unplea...
Wed, Mar 12 2025, 11:48 AM
Today's CPI came in lower than expected. That would normally help bonds rally, but they didn't seem too eager to do that. One explanation is that the ...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 3:56 PM
Consolidation Continues Ahead of CPI
February 19th through March 3rd marked an exceptionally directional ral...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 3:15 PM
With fiscal and geopolitical developments dominating the news cycle, it would be easy to forget that interest rates prefer to take their primary cues ...
Tue, Mar 11 2025, 12:52 PM
Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the sta...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 3:44 PM
More Help From Stocks, But More Reluctance From Bonds
Up until just after 3pm ET, the stock market was on pa...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 3:02 PM
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in months last Tuesday morning, with the average lender right in line with levels from ...
Mon, Mar 10 2025, 10:27 AM
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a per...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Give Up AM Gains After Powell Speech
Bonds made it through the jobs report in good shape with modest g...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 2:47 PM
The average mortgage lender was briefly able to offer noticeably lower rates this morning compared to yesterday's latest levels. Credit goes to this m...
Fri, Mar 7 2025, 10:20 AM
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which i...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 4:07 PM
Decent Recovery as Sentiment Swoons Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds have made it to Friday's jobs report without ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 3:18 PM
You may see conflicting news about mortgage rates today, depending on where you look. Weekly surveys, such as Freddie Mac's, are showing a fairly big ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 11:40 AM
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mea...
