Today, 4:55 PM
Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning....
Today, 2:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days ...
Today, 10:45 AM
The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provid...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so fa...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:29 PM
As markets digested implications of several fiscal policy changes over the past 2 months, a predictable trading pattern emerged. Stocks and interest r...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:35 AM
What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movem...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 4:39 PM
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marki...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 3:50 PM
Financial markets experienced relatively extreme volatility on several occasions following the April 2nd tariff announcements. The bonds that underlie...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 11:24 AM
In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in rela...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 4:18 PM
Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change
It was a low drama session for bonds with overnig...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 3:18 PM
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. La...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 10:10 AM
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied stea...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 5:03 PM
Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data
Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield s...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 4:16 PM
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure. As an example, the poster...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 12:38 PM
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 5:08 PM
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 3:50 PM
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:49 AM
It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in g...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 4:29 PM
For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day. This is ju...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 4:43 PM
While no one can be sure exactly how things will pan out in the long run, the market is currently expressing extreme disapproval of the new tariff pla...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:00 PM
Tariff volatility giveth and taketh from interest rates. Up until Friday afternoon, it's been mostly "giveth-ing." In other words, the prospect of t...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 4:29 PM
This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed ...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 3:42 PM
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 11:19 AM
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:44 PM
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directio...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when th...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 12:06 PM
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out ...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously wor...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 3:29 PM
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on t...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:30 PM
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:34 PM
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 3:26 PM
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 4:58 PM
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
