Today, 9:58 AM
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering t...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 3:54 PM
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher af...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 3:12 PM
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media re...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 9:11 AM
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic ...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 4:07 PM
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-re...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the s...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 9:38 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) af...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 4:28 PM
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid-...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and ...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 10:35 AM
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Horm...
Mon, Mar 30 2026, 3:24 PM
The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recover...
Mon, Mar 30 2026, 9:12 AM
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of mea...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 4:16 PM
Some Resilience After AM Weakness
10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July,...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 2:29 PM
There were mixed blessings in the mortgage rate world today. The bad news is that today's rates are just a bit higher than yesterday's, resulting in a...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 10:12 AM
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instea...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 4:11 PM
That Escalated Quickly
It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon a...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 2:49 PM
After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the ...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 4:04 PM
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen sin...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 2:55 PM
The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There's a ceasefire. There...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 9:39 AM
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon)...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 4:03 PM
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Tuesday was notable for financial marke...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 3:35 PM
March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates--a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, t...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 9:43 AM
Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Ira...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines
Don't worry about what actually happened, who actually spoke to wh...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates are dictated by bonds and bonds had a volatile day. During overnight trading hours, bonds suggested we should brace for the impact of e...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 9:26 AM
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. The...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 5:21 PM
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode
Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mort...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 2:53 PM
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 9:46 AM
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More si...
Thu, Mar 19 2026, 3:48 PM
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with ...
Thu, Mar 19 2026, 8:55 AM
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn'...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 5:04 PM
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has sh...
Wed, Mar 18 2026, 9:14 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes withou...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 4:07 PM
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. The...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 3:07 PM
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful ...
Tue, Mar 17 2026, 10:45 AM
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as t...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 3:24 PM
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 2:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation beget...
Mon, Mar 16 2026, 10:38 AM
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during E...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 4:40 PM
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not gr...
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 2:12 PM
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6....
Fri, Mar 13 2026, 9:07 AM
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thank...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 4:38 PM
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 ...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched hig...
Thu, Mar 12 2026, 11:30 AM
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, ...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 5:10 PM
General Selling Spree Continues
It hasn't exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generall...
Wed, Mar 11 2026, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about intere...
