MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
For the most part, this morning's price action in MBS and Treasuries would be best characterized as a healthy rally, but as we postulated in the most recent update this morning, "a bounce back to slightly weaker territory is always a risk following daily Fed buying."  This idea is nothing new, and it's no mystery that the minutes just following 11:00am have a better than 50% chance of acting as resistance if bond markets are rallying from 10-11am on days where the Fed is conducting scheduled buying in the longer end of the yield curve.  It's not so much of a "sure thing" as it is a slightly better than random possibility.  This looks to be the case so far today.  Bond markets were dead silent overnight and began rallying after stronger ADP data, continuing to improve after ISM data.  The rally continued through the scheduled Fed buying and is now leveling off with MBS a cool quarter point higher, breaking through 103-10 resistance.  10yr yields are similarly at their outer limits, pushing the boundaries of resistance, but again, looking like they've found that boundary for now.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
103-14 : +0-08
FNMA 3.5
105-27 : +0-05
FNMA 4.0
106-26 : +0-04
FNMA 4.5
107-26 : +0-02
GNMA 3.0
104-26 : +0-08
GNMA 3.5
107-27 : +0-05
GNMA 4.0
109-08 : +0-04
GNMA 4.5
109-15 : +0-03
FHLMC 3.0
103-01 : +0-09
FHLMC 3.5
105-18 : +0-05
FHLMC 4.0
106-18 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.5
107-02 : -0-01
Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.

10:22AM  :  Bond Markets Improve Following Equities Open and Data
Both data sets have had a salubrious effect for MBS and Treasuries so far this morning with the first leg down in yield following ADP Private payrolls now complemented by weaker ISM Services ("non-manufacturing") data. Between those two reports, the opening bell for stock markets was of minor benefit to bond markets as well, though the stock lever connectivity has been sketchy of late. So we'll focus on the reactions to the data.

This most recent gains took 10yr yields from 1.84 to 1.826 currently. We think we're seeing a shift in tradeflows that suggests real buying behind the gains (as opposed to short-covering). That suggests that this is more than a tactical move and that bond markets are indeed willing to challenge recent resistance if things go well in the coming hours and days, culminating with NFP Friday.

For their part, MBS are up 7 ticks on the day at 103-14 now. This isn't quite enough of a gap from the earliest rate sheets to be hoping for a positive reprice, but one 'price-leader' sort of lender might be close if we hold here or improve over the next few minutes.

There's no other scheduled data for the day and the only other relevant event is the scheduled Treasury purchase operation going on now in 6-7 year maturities. When that wraps up at 11:00am, we'll be curious to see if it reinforces resistance at these stretched boundaries in 10yr yields. A bounce back to slightly weaker territory is always a risk following daily Fed buying. If we avoid one today, it's another positive mark on the wall of the jail cell heling 10's between 1.83 and 1.87 this past week.
10:07AM  :  ECON: ISM Services Weaker Than Expected, Employment Lower
- PMI (or NMI™) 54.4 vs 55.8 consensus, 56.0 previously
- Business Activity 56.5 vs 56.9 consensus
- Employment 53.3 vs 57.2 in Feb, lowest since Nov
- PMI lowest since August

In March, the NMI™ registered 54.4 percent, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 39th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in March registered 56.5 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than the 56.9 percent registered in February. Thirteen industries reported increased business activity, and four industries reported decreased activity for the month of March. Comments from respondents include: "Getting ready for higher business activity in coming months" and "Increased retail sales."

ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in March for the 44th consecutive month. The index registered 54.6 percent, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the 58.2 percent reported in February. Comments from respondents include: "Higher demand" and "New product launch."
9:00AM  :  Bond Markets Back In Positive Territory After ADP
To speak of the overnight session as anything interesting or relevant would be to give it too much credit. Even though Italian credit spreads were on the move and Eurodollars somewhat volatile these past few days, Treasuries essentially disregarded the overnight gyrations and held EVEN FLATTER than they had during the domestic session. Considering our gripes about yesterday's flatness, that's saying something! 1.855 to 1.861 ALL NIGHT! Ranges that narrow are a rare occurrence indeed.

Domestic market participants began running yields higher at the open, ahead of ADP data. 1.861 quickly gave way to 1.871. Fannie 3.0's opened in line with yesterday's latest levels of 103-06, experiencing less volatility at the open than Treasury counterparts.

ADP printed quite a bit weaker than expected (158k vs 200k consensus) though the previous month was revised higher. Even so, it was enough to reverse the course of early Treasury selling, and get back to positive territory. 10's moved from 1.871 to 1.847 and MBS ratcheted up 2 ticks to 103-08.

So we're not stampeding toward breaks of recent resistance levels, but "the slide" has been more than arrested so far. ISM services data at 10am may help keep that progress going if the report is weaker or could help reinforce the generally resistant territory we've gotten into when 10yr yields have been in the 1.83's and 1.84's. Either way, the message remains mostly sideways and contained ahead of NFP.
8:27AM  :  ECON: ADP Private Payrolls Lowest Since October
- Private Payrolls 158k vs 200k Consensus
- lowest since October
- Previous month revised to 237k from 198k

– Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from February to March, according to the March ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Revisions to job gains in the two prior months were offsetting; February’s gain of 198,000 jobs was revised up by 39,000 to 237,000, and January’s 215,000 gain was revised down by 38,000 to 177,000.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Christopher Stevens  :  "I agree VB...telling my LO's to lock'em at these rates."
Victor Burek  :  "strong nfp friday and we easily go back to 2.06 or higher on 10 yr..a weak nfp, we might rally some, but much more to risk than to gain"
Andy Pada  :  "I've been targeting 103-15, but I am covering almost everything now."
Matthew Graham  :  "hard to argue with that Vic. I don't think the ECB is quite there yet with respect to any aggressive policy move. Even if the rally continues tomorrow, we're at 1-month rate lows. Hoping for more is a roll of the dice on ECB/NFP prints"
Matthew Graham  :  "103-10 is the closest pivot"
Victor Burek  :  "today's the day to lock if locking before nfp"
Matthew Graham  :  "bit higher at the moment"
Andy Pada  :  "MG, are we at the high part of our range on the 3.0?"
Mike Drews  :  "time to call that concrete contractor i guess."
Scott Rieke  :  "I'm guessing we need to push though and sustain 1.81 to mark a small regime change."
Jeff Anderson  :  "Oh, my. Under the 1.83467298 concrete floor. Let's keep it that way!"
Ted Rood  :  "That can only help MBS. Now if we get some disappointing employment #"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM NON-MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 53.3 IN MARCH VS 57.2 IN FEB "
Scott Rieke  :  "Green shoots"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE AUGUST "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM REPORT ON U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS PMI AT 54.4 IN MARCH (CONSENSUS 55.8) VS 56.0 IN FEB "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ISM NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 56.5 IN MARCH (CONSENSUS 56.9) VS 56.9 IN FEB "
MMNJ  :  "TS, we feel your appraisal pain with Provident. The flips we had to do post closing in Jan and Feb cost us 6 figures in losses of revenue. And the worst part is that Wells, Suntrust and PHH bought the loans with zero issue"
John Rodgers  :  "Tom, suggestion don't use them"
MMNJ  :  ""my buddy, who has a cousin who is a daytrader and used to do mortgages says I should be able to get 100% financing and that you can negotiate the state closing costs......and he's really smart so I trust him""
Tom Sawyer  :  "Guys, asked this question a few weeks ago. Looking to add an additional correspondent relationship, Provident has good rates but they are killing me on appraisals, any suggestions? "
MMNJ  :  "we live in Mortgage Bizarro World....."
Steve Chizmadia  :  "you could offer them a high nalance 3.5% down fha loan though. "
Jason Anker  :  "MMJM just had a BK & FC 3 years ago and the borrower was confused why I could do a 5% down jumbo for them. "
MMNJ  :  ""I know I had a Ch 7 4 months ago, but I have 5% down from my parents. I don't understand why you can't approve me""
Victor Burek  :  "i dont want go back to how it was, it was way to easy, but right now lenders are way too strict"
Ira Selwin  :  "Also, don't forget VB, everyone is "entitled" to owning a house for some reason now. ha."
Jeff Anderson  :  "Big revision up for the previous month, Chiz, so it kind of balances out, so far. We'll now have to wait and see what Friday brings. GM, all."
Matthew Graham  :  "plus, it's ADP Chis, if NFP missed by 25%-ish, we'd likely see more movement"
Ira Selwin  :  "I mean if you want "normal" vb, there's plenty of things you can look at. To this day, I'm still amazed that we use a borowers gross pay to qualify."
Victor Burek  :  "chiz, previous month revised higher"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "I would have thought a 158k ADP report would have had a bigger and better initial reaction and push higher for mbs. "
Matthew Graham  :  "I think risk-taking stance is more complicated than that. Certainly, low rates + filled capacity means it makes sense to focus on the highest credit quality first, leaving dry powder in the keg for when rates rise, but wouldn't you also agree that someone who was just in a bad car accident is going to take some time in getting back to previous driving habits?"
Victor Burek  :  "of course not ira, but you asked earlier are we far from normalcy..yes we are as i feel stated should be available to high fico low ltv"
Dirk Postupack  :  "there is a market for it VB.......who wants to takwe that risk again after what happened last time?"
Ira Selwin  :  "Thats up to a bank wanting to do it though. You can't force someone to do it."
Ira Selwin  :  "Possibly some local banks in other areas for high profile clients"
Dirk Postupack  :  "sooooo unless you income you can refi......if you can't prove income it is the preverbial "SORRY CHARLIE!""
Victor Burek  :  "so no stated in Pa?"
Dirk Postupack  :  "In Pa we have to have proof of ability to repay in every file"
Ira Selwin  :  "VB - honestly not sure about the state restrictions. Anyone else have more info on their states?"
Victor Burek  :  "stated loans should come back for high credit clients with large down payments"
Matthew Graham  :  "my 0.02: we're in the process of honing in on a new normal that must necessarily be redefined due to the unprecedented shake up ."
Victor Burek  :  "YES"
Ira Selwin  :  "What is normal I guess is the question. In terms of product, are we that far away from normal ?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US ADP FEBRUARY PAYROLL CHANGE REVISED TO 237,000 FROM +198,000 "
Andrew Russell  :  "my .02 , carry on good folks of the MBS secret handshake crew!!!"
Andrew Russell  :  "there has to be a middle ground, Ira, I am sure you dont think we are in the happy middle ground, I think we have more room to "swing" back to the middle ground or normalcy. It would take insanity to go back to how it was, but this certainly isnt mortgage lending normalcy."
Andrew Russell  :  "“If that were to come to pass, that would open the floodgates to highly excessive risk and would send us right back on the same path we were just trying to recover from,” said Ed Pinto, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former top executive at mortgage giant Fannie Mae."
Andrew Russell  :  "This is an intersting paragraph, is it a dramatic statement to say we will get right back into our mess? What caused the mess? Stated income? Low down payment? "

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