MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
Treasuries stayed exceedingly flat again in the overnight session, despite data that would otherwise be expected to create volatility. This continues to build the impression that US bond markets are super-focused on Friday's jobs report above all else. Whereas the correlation between bond yields and stock prices had broken down quite a bit since mid-March (and remains dislocated in longer intervals), it's been quite well connected since the 9:30am stock open. With that in mind, both stock prices and bond yields topped out shortly after the stock open, slid quickly lower, and then began marching steadily. With 10yr yields meeting overhead support (potentially) in the mid 1.78's, MBS are similarly looking like they will build on early lows at 103-20, and are currently at 103-23 and rising.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Pricing as of 11:08 AM EST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
9:21AM :
Carbon Copy Overnight Session And AM Rally Despite Big BOJ News
Bond markets are on a tear once again this morning. In strikingly similar fashion to yesterday's morning rally. In both cases, gains followed weak employment data after Treasuries moved relentlessly and even defiantly sideways in the overnight session.
This is made all the more impressive by the outrageously aggressive central bank policy announced by Japan overnight (doubling an already large annual bond buying target, and more than doubling the average duration target--essentially, the BOJ's announcement makes QE1-3 look remarkably timid, and the run toward all time low Japanese 10yr yields at 0.45 in a few blinks of an eye last night stands as evidence).
Despite that big news, Treasuries remained almost unbelievably sideways, In and of itself, the containment wouldn't have been that surprising, but considering it's the 2nd day in a row, and comes amid big news and big movement in global overnight markets, it's a major testament to how much US markets are hanging on Friday's jobs number and any employment data in between.
To that end, this morning's Jobless Claims data came in much higher than expected, and was quickly pounced upon by anxious bond markets. Yields were already edging lower into the data, but made another big jump after the 35k miss (385k vs 350k consensus).
MBS are up 6 ticks to 103-22 and certainly saw their first hint of resistance at 103-24. 10yr yields moved from the low 1.8's to 1.76 following the data. This is incredibly significant territory for 10yr yields as it is close to the outer limits of the long-term uptrend in rates. Stay on guard this morning as it already looks like resistance is in at the post data lows and we've been heading in the other direction since 8:55am with Draghi having nothing bond-bullish to add during his press conference.
This is made all the more impressive by the outrageously aggressive central bank policy announced by Japan overnight (doubling an already large annual bond buying target, and more than doubling the average duration target--essentially, the BOJ's announcement makes QE1-3 look remarkably timid, and the run toward all time low Japanese 10yr yields at 0.45 in a few blinks of an eye last night stands as evidence).
Despite that big news, Treasuries remained almost unbelievably sideways, In and of itself, the containment wouldn't have been that surprising, but considering it's the 2nd day in a row, and comes amid big news and big movement in global overnight markets, it's a major testament to how much US markets are hanging on Friday's jobs number and any employment data in between.
To that end, this morning's Jobless Claims data came in much higher than expected, and was quickly pounced upon by anxious bond markets. Yields were already edging lower into the data, but made another big jump after the 35k miss (385k vs 350k consensus).
MBS are up 6 ticks to 103-22 and certainly saw their first hint of resistance at 103-24. 10yr yields moved from the low 1.8's to 1.76 following the data. This is incredibly significant territory for 10yr yields as it is close to the outer limits of the long-term uptrend in rates. Stay on guard this morning as it already looks like resistance is in at the post data lows and we've been heading in the other direction since 8:55am with Draghi having nothing bond-bullish to add during his press conference.
8:36AM :
ECON: Jobless Claims Significantly Higher Than Expected
- Claims 385k vs 350k Consensus
- 4-week Average to 354,250 from 343k - Claims highest since Nov 24, 2012
In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 343,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 3,063,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,067,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,077,750.
- 4-week Average to 354,250 from 343k - Claims highest since Nov 24, 2012
In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 343,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 3,063,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,067,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,077,750.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matthew Graham : "we hit 1.759 this morning after being over 2.0% less than 3 weeks ago. We rallied aggressively at the end of last week and again yesterday. 1.75% is long-term range resistance. It would be a big surprise to be moving lower before NFP tomorrow. Almost everything about yesterday and today tells us that the focus on tomorrow's employment print is uncommonly high. I think we've taken the most aggressive possible pre-NFP lead off. Don't let this morning's moderate gains convince you that we're "
Victor Burek : "huge data tomorrow, not much matters what happens today"
Matthew Carver : "I was expecting more of a rally… and more sell off in equities. what is holding us back and preventing the consolidation in equities?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- DRAGHI SAYS PEOPLE WHO SPECULATE ABOUT EUROZONE BREAK UP VASTLY UNDERESTIMATE POLITICAL CAPITAL INVESTED IN EURO "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ECB'S DRAGHI, WHEN ASKED ABOUT POSSIBLE RATE CUT IN THE REFI RATE, SAYS WE NEVER PRE-COMMIT "
Victor Burek : "same here, what i didnt lock yesterday floating through tomorrow for sure"
Gus Floropoulos : "todays move will be further confirmed tomorrow"
Gus Floropoulos : "Im floating out "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS HAVE NOW CONFRIMATION THAT INFLATION IS IS EDGING DOWN WELL BELOW 2 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "I'm surprised we're not rallying further on these Draghi comments, It really sounds like a rate cut is coming"
Christopher Stevens : "so if you didn't lock yesterday I would certainly lock today. Especially on loans closing in <30 days."
Christopher Stevens : "so if NFP meets forecast or is better we should see a move back to mid 1.80 on 10YR or higher. If NFP much worse the 10YR should remain where it is."
Jeff Anderson : "I'm a little surprised the market hasn't taken more of a wait and see approach to tomorrow before trading. Again, unless Beeks has the crops report early. I love the conspiracy theory stuff."
Matthew Graham : "if early March was defensive against several big ticket events conspiring to move things one way, early April has been the opposite, CS. I think that's kind of a "yes" answer to your question"
Christopher Stevens : "MG- would you say the market has now positioned itself for a dissapointment in NFP tmrw?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS DISCUSSION ON RATES WAS EXTENSIVE"
Matthew Graham : "seem unlikely, unless Draghi has something wacky to say."
Paul L. Martin : "104 today?"
Matthew Graham : "http://tinyurl.com/dy63pta"
Christopher Stevens : "I was just going to say that VB"
Victor Burek : "i hope you have some fancy chart to show us about this"
Matthew Graham : "very very close to a test of the long term uptrend. for the first time since December when the trend was just getting established"
Gus Floropoulos : "touching on fresh new technicals today, MG is prob jumping with joy"
Victor Burek : "i think the bond market will be proven correct"
Gus Floropoulos : "sure looks like it Edgar....."
Edgar : "Seems to me the market, at least the bond market, is thinking this year might not be any different than 2012, 2011 and 2010."
Oliver S. Orlicki : "tomorrow should be entertaining to say the least"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS HIGHEST SINCE NOV 24, 2012 WEEK (390,000) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.063 MLN MARCH 23 WEEK (CONS. 3.050 MLN) FROM 3.071 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.050 MLN) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 354,250 MARCH 30 WEEK FROM 343,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 343,000) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 385,000 MARCH 30 WEEK (CONSENSUS 350,000) FROM 357,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 357,000)"
Ted Rood : ""A long-term creditable deficit-reduction plan from Congress is needed", said Lockhart. Sure they'll get right on that, given the apocalyptic attitude about the 85B sequester."
Ted Rood : "was a couple of times yesterday, now we just have to establish a range there."
Dan Clifton : "wow 10 hyear under 1.80, havent seen that in a while. "
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