MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
Bond markets began the day in moderately weaker territory and have given up ground steadily since then. The batch of morning economic data was a relative non-event, surprisingly. While Jobless Claims were right in line with expectations, Durable Goods came in stronger, but were somewhat offset by the weaker internal "excluding transportation" component. IMF comments on extending Eurozone budget deficit deadlines coincided with a move to new high yields in Treasuries and new lows for MBS. 10yr yields continue to battle with the 2.62 inflection point (drifting higher on several occasions) while MBS are bouncing along their lows of the day. The next relevant economic event hits at 1pm with the 7yr Note Auction.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Pricing as of 11:05 AM EST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
9:11AM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Well Contained Trading Session Now Threatening Weakest Levels
Bond markets began the overnight session holding relatively flat during Asian hours, expressing a bit more volatility during the European hours. European data could be discussed, and may have even had a slight effect on trading levels, but the emphasis would be on "slight" and "may have." Therefore, "could" becomes "won't" and we'll instead focus on the 'inside session' currently in the works.
An 'inside day' simply means that the price or yield of a charted security is trading inside yesterday's range. It can connote more indecision, less conviction, less momentum, and a general sense of waiting for more inspiration before embarking on the next journey. That's the spot in which bond markets find themselves this morning, following yesterday's sell-off, but in this case it's not only an inside day in terms of yesterday's range, but also in terms of the scant 3 hours of trading between 2 and 5pm.
ALL THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, we're very close to challenging the weaker side of that range now (higher in terms of Treasury yields and lower in terms of MBS prices). Fannie 3.5s are down 8 at 100-12 and Fannie 4.0s are down 6 at 103-14. 10yr yields are up just over 3bps at 2.618, getting very close to the 2.62 technical support level.
The most recent bout of weakness came in a flurry following headlines from the IMF saying the EU should extend budget deficit deadlines and consider a new long-term refinancing operation. It's unclear whether this is the biggest consideration at the moment or if we're simply getting hit by tradeflows.
An 'inside day' simply means that the price or yield of a charted security is trading inside yesterday's range. It can connote more indecision, less conviction, less momentum, and a general sense of waiting for more inspiration before embarking on the next journey. That's the spot in which bond markets find themselves this morning, following yesterday's sell-off, but in this case it's not only an inside day in terms of yesterday's range, but also in terms of the scant 3 hours of trading between 2 and 5pm.
ALL THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, we're very close to challenging the weaker side of that range now (higher in terms of Treasury yields and lower in terms of MBS prices). Fannie 3.5s are down 8 at 100-12 and Fannie 4.0s are down 6 at 103-14. 10yr yields are up just over 3bps at 2.618, getting very close to the 2.62 technical support level.
The most recent bout of weakness came in a flurry following headlines from the IMF saying the EU should extend budget deficit deadlines and consider a new long-term refinancing operation. It's unclear whether this is the biggest consideration at the moment or if we're simply getting hit by tradeflows.
8:45AM :
ECON: Durable Goods Stronger, but Offset by Internals
- Durable Goods +4.2 vs +1.3 forecast
- May revised to +5.2 from +3.7
- Excluding Transportation 0.0 vs +0.5 forecast
Market Reaction: bond markets looked to be weakening initially but held their ground before moving through to slightly stronger levels.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $9.9 billion or 4.2 percent to $244.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 5.2 percent May increase and was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. Excluding transportation, new orders increased slightly. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.0 percent.
Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $9.9 billion or 12.8 percent to $87.1 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $6.5 billion.
- May revised to +5.2 from +3.7
- Excluding Transportation 0.0 vs +0.5 forecast
Market Reaction: bond markets looked to be weakening initially but held their ground before moving through to slightly stronger levels.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $9.9 billion or 4.2 percent to $244.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 5.2 percent May increase and was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. Excluding transportation, new orders increased slightly. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.0 percent.
Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $9.9 billion or 12.8 percent to $87.1 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $6.5 billion.
8:38AM :
ECON: Jobless Claims Roughly in Line with Consensus
- 343k vs 340k, last week revised to 336k from 334k
- Continued Claims fell to 2.997 mln vs 3.0 mln consensus
In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 346,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 13 was 2,997,000, a decrease of 119,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,116,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,023,250, an increase of 2,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,020,750.
- Continued Claims fell to 2.997 mln vs 3.0 mln consensus
In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 346,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 13 was 2,997,000, a decrease of 119,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,116,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,023,250, an increase of 2,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,020,750.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Hugh W. Page : "Message is Europe is still a mess but we'll keep kicking the can until it isn't. Nothing to see here so move on..."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS EURO ZONE FISCAL CONSOLIDATION MAY SUBTRACT 1.0-1.25 POINTS FROM GROWTH THIS YEAR, 2013 RECESSION SEEN AT 0.6 PCT -IMF "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EURO ZONE SHOULD FURTHER EXTEND DEADLINES FOR BUDGET DEFICIT CUTTING FOR SOME COUNTRIES -IMF "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ECB SHOULD CONSIDER NEW LTRO FOR SOLVENT BANKS, TARGETED LTRO LINKED TO NEW LENDING TO SMALL FIRMS OR DIRECT BUYING OF PRIVATE ASSETS -IMF "
Oliver Orlicki : "2.46 is going to be the line in the sand for 2013 moving forward...huh?"
Oliver Orlicki : "mg, great day ahead"
John Tassios : "MG, findings look at current status of house, if client has another current OO house at time of current application for HARP, then HARP refi get's treated as invesment"
joon choi : "yes, house now investment"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JUNE NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT +0.7 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS MAY +2.2 PCT (PREV +1.5 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. JUNE DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION UNCHANGED (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS MAY +1.0 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JUNE DURABLES ORDERS +4.2 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.3 PCT) VS MAY +5.2 PCT (PREV +3.7 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 2.997 MLN (CONS. 3.000 MLN) JULY 13 WEEK FROM 3.116 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.114 MLN) "
Oliver Orlicki : "durable goods much higher"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 345,250 JULY 20 WEEK FROM 346,500 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 346,000) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 343,000 JULY 20 WEEK (CONSENSUS 340,000) FROM 336,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 334,000) "
John Rodgers : "Harp question - so when the guy bought the house it was his primary and not it is investment. do they get the investment hit?"
Ira Selwin : "Especially since you only mentioned cash out llpas\"
Ira Selwin : "Risk management team looks at past performance"
Ira Selwin : "Could be pure risk."
Michael Gillani : "Thanks Ira. I figured as much. The question is why would they be doing that right now?"
Ira Selwin : "https://www.fanniemae.com/content/pricing/llpa-matrix-refi-plus.pdf"
Ira Selwin : "Fannie hasn't adjusted their LLPAs: https://www.fanniemae.com/content/pricing/llpa-matrix.pdf"
Ira Selwin : "That would be a lender overlay MG"
Michael Gillani : "Straight from the GSE's or would that be an overlay?"
Michael Gillani : "At a time when you would think guidelines and pricing adjustments would be loosening, I just got an ema this morning from Florida Capital stating that conventional cashout LLPA's were increasing. Of course, why not? It's not as if they don't already whack you hard enough. Is that straigjt"
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