MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
MBS opened up a tick or two higher than yesterday's close and proceeded very gently higher into the 1015-1100am Fed "Twist" scheduled buying of 25-30yr maturity Treasuries. Treasuries and MBS both took a quck step back following the release of those details as they showed a potential selling bias in the long end of the bond market. This could continue to be an issue over the next two days depending on how today's 10yr Treasury auction is received. The 1.67-1.69+ level is very serious business as far as 10yr yields are concerned. So we're in a state of hypervigilance while yields operate within 4bps of those technical levels. 10's moved up from 1.61 to 1.64 in rather short order around the buyback details. Fannie 3.0s shed 4 ticks from 103-14 highs to 103-10. Any additional weakness could hearken negative reprice risk.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Pricing as of 11:08 AM EST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
9:32AM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Bond Markets Very Slightly Improved This Morning. Still In "The Woods"
We've had mostly green on the screens this morning but aren't out of the woods yet. 10yr yields are just over 1bp lower than yesterday's 5pm levels and Fannie 3.0 MBS are a scant 3 ticks improved at 103-12. S&P futures slid steadily lower overnight and are about 6 points lower than 4pm levels yesterday.
The pace and significance of events quickened overnight and volume finally made it back to average. Bond markets found their key motivation in a well-subscribed German 10yr Bund Auction. Treasuries were already underperforming the EU Benchmark ahead of the auction, but the discrepancy widened afterward. US Treasuries merely flattened out while German Bunds Rallied 3-4 bps.
The Treasury underperformance here, despite the German Auction and a slew of other moderately supportive data and events overnight, underscores the challenges facing bond markets of late. Beginning with ECB Pres Mario Draghi's comments in London 2 and a half weeks ago (the "believe me, it will be enough!" stuff), volatility has spiked and yields are about 20bps higher.
Additionally, the weakness in 10's and MBS are showing signs of technical significance. There are many ways to chart this, but we included two very basic charts in this morning's "Day Ahead," which is linked below. You see the sort of upwardly sloped wedge forming in 10yr yields? We don't really like those, as they often connote two competing uptrends. One is worse than the other, but both are bad.
It's no guarantee that we continue to see an uptrend in yields, but clearly that's what we HAVE been seeing. We're interested to see the extent to which today's 10yr Auction (US Treasuries at 1pm) has an impact on bond markets. This morning's divergence from German Bunds may be a tacit suggestion of that possibility.
In other words, Treasuries are looking like they care about something other than Europe in the overnight session and that probably has at least something to do with 2 upcoming auctions today and tomorrow. MBS, for their part, are just following the leader for now.
The pace and significance of events quickened overnight and volume finally made it back to average. Bond markets found their key motivation in a well-subscribed German 10yr Bund Auction. Treasuries were already underperforming the EU Benchmark ahead of the auction, but the discrepancy widened afterward. US Treasuries merely flattened out while German Bunds Rallied 3-4 bps.
The Treasury underperformance here, despite the German Auction and a slew of other moderately supportive data and events overnight, underscores the challenges facing bond markets of late. Beginning with ECB Pres Mario Draghi's comments in London 2 and a half weeks ago (the "believe me, it will be enough!" stuff), volatility has spiked and yields are about 20bps higher.
Additionally, the weakness in 10's and MBS are showing signs of technical significance. There are many ways to chart this, but we included two very basic charts in this morning's "Day Ahead," which is linked below. You see the sort of upwardly sloped wedge forming in 10yr yields? We don't really like those, as they often connote two competing uptrends. One is worse than the other, but both are bad.
It's no guarantee that we continue to see an uptrend in yields, but clearly that's what we HAVE been seeing. We're interested to see the extent to which today's 10yr Auction (US Treasuries at 1pm) has an impact on bond markets. This morning's divergence from German Bunds may be a tacit suggestion of that possibility.
In other words, Treasuries are looking like they care about something other than Europe in the overnight session and that probably has at least something to do with 2 upcoming auctions today and tomorrow. MBS, for their part, are just following the leader for now.
8:40AM :
ECON: Productivity And Costs Both Higher Than Expected. Limited Reaction.
* Productivity +1.6 vs +1.3 consensus
* Costs +1.7 pct vs +0.6 consensus
* Not the most meaningful piece of economic data in the current environment and having relatively little impact this morning. In the first 8 minutes, 10yr yields have moved just slightly higher and Fannie 3.0 MBS shed 2 ticks from 103-13 to 103-11. The movement and volume isn't big enough to attribute to this report (vs regular morning ups and downs)
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 2.0 percent in output and 0.4 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, productivity increased 1.1 percent as output and hours worked rose 2.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
* Costs +1.7 pct vs +0.6 consensus
* Not the most meaningful piece of economic data in the current environment and having relatively little impact this morning. In the first 8 minutes, 10yr yields have moved just slightly higher and Fannie 3.0 MBS shed 2 ticks from 103-13 to 103-11. The movement and volume isn't big enough to attribute to this report (vs regular morning ups and downs)
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 2.0 percent in output and 0.4 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, productivity increased 1.1 percent as output and hours worked rose 2.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Jason Adams : "When i was at ST retail we could only do NOO if it was in the same state and within 75 miles. If it was out of state but within the 75 miles we had to contact a LO in that state and hand it off... Needless to say i gave alot of Florida loans away.... (that was retail) "
Ken Crute : "but the 100 mile guide came up, and it was not STM that had it , so they are not the only one with that rule "
Ken Crute : "now that you mention it, I think I remember the 100 mile thing coming up a while back, although can't remeber if multiple lenders adopted that guide "
Matt Hodges : ""same state" or 100 mile radious"
Matt Hodges : "pg 77 of the correspondent guides disallow"
Matt Hodges : "no, i don't think so. just wondering why ST won't"
Victor Burek : "why wouldnt st do the loan?"
Ken Crute : "am I missing something Matt, I am not seeing a problem for the file "
Matt Hodges : "Q: US citizen working for State Dept, stationed overseas. Does not own any property. Buying a NOO, not counting any rent. ST specifically restricts this purchase, but I can't find other lenders disallowing. Thoughts?"
Ken Crute : "zes you zhould "
Gus Floropoulos : "multiply the gross rent by 11 for value"
Dean Gorenflo : "okay...thanks for the feedback. Can I get a zestimate on a two unit in Switzerland?"
philip mancuso : "prov funding def says yes"
Ken Crute : "if its on the E your UW will ask and he probably pays taxes and HOI on it, so you need to add that to his expenses "
Dean Gorenflo : "1003 question: Do you list foreign real estate on the REO section of the 1003? Borrower has no mortgage on the property, but it does appear on his schedule E."
Ken Crute : "would say that most countries close to france are about to get some very wealty citizenship applications "
Ken Crute : "this may be olds news http://www.cnbc.com/id/48563456"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "need some green today"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. Q2 NON-FARM UNIT LABOR COSTS +1.7 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.6 PCT), VS Q1 +5.6 PCT (PREV +1.3 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. Q2 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY +1.6 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.3 PCT), VS Q1 -0.5 PCT (PREV -0.9 PCT) "
Victor Burek : "yes...might have to listen to some Green Day to start the day"
Matt Hodges : "i smell a green day, you?"
Read what our user's have to say about MBS Live on LinkedIn.
» Start a two week free trial of MBS Live.