MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
After maligning last week's lack of excitement, bond market bulls would be happy to have it back after today's sell-off.  We were expecting more volatility to show up today and indeed it was the fastest-paced session since NFP Friday, but it unfortunately brought yields back to territory not seen since the day before NFP Friday!  For 10yr Treasuries, that means "2.70's" again and MBS are pushing against 100-00 support in Fannie 3.5s.  Retail Sales is probably the most salient culprit, but not the only one.  European data added to the negative momentum overnight and Retail Sales essentially just "got out of the way" of a train that had already left the station.  The question now becomes whether or not we've just seen bond markets hold their ground before breaking into the weakest levels of the past 2 years or if this was simply where we pause to see if Thursday's data will suggest a move back in the other direction.  Either way, Thursday's data will be important (because there's not much tomorrow), and we've at least confirmed that this week brings at least some of the participation back into markets that was absent last week.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
96-00 : -0-24
FNMA 3.5
100-02 : -0-21
FNMA 4.0
103-12 : -0-14
FNMA 4.5
105-25 : -0-10
GNMA 3.0
97-02 : -0-26
GNMA 3.5
101-07 : -0-22
GNMA 4.0
104-01 : -0-14
GNMA 4.5
106-08 : -0-09
FHLMC 3.0
95-21 : -0-24
FHLMC 3.5
99-25 : -0-21
FHLMC 4.0
103-07 : -0-13
FHLMC 4.5
105-06 : -0-09
Pricing as of 4:06 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
2:01PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Persists as MBS and Treasuries Stay Near Weakest Levels
While 10yr yields were able to hold under the day's highest yields just now, the move from 2.708 to 2.72 came quickly. MBS sold off several ticks quickly in response, but have since bounced before hitting their lows. The problem is that bond markets have been moving into weaker and weaker territory in these sorts of pivoting movements (where we seem to recover for a time only to fail to recover past previously broken support levels).

Bottom line: negative reprice risk remains a factor for lenders who haven't repriced already. Risks increase if 10's break above 2.72--assuming MBS follow with their own move to the day's weakest levels.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matthew Carver  :  "REPRICE: 3:30 PM - Quicken Loans Wholesale Worse"
JRS  :  "REPRICE: 3:30 PM - Suntrust Worse"
Matthew Carver  :  "REPRICE: 3:30 PM - Sierra Pacific Worse"
Matthew Carver  :  "REPRICE: 3:29 PM - Flagstar Worse"
Matthew Graham  :  "you may be waiting a while. "
Fred Stringham  :  "Patiently waiting for the board to light up green!"
Dustin McAlister  :  "maybe it is double hitting it. i show this "
Victor Burek  :  "that seems friendly to us"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- LOCKHART SAYS DECISIONS TO REDUCE ASSET BUYS WILL BE DATA-DEPENDENT "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - LOCKHART – FED ASSET PURCHASES PROGRAM INTENDED TO HAVE A BEGINNING AND END; IT IS NOT QE INFINITY "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - LOCKHART: ADJUSTMENT TO ASSET PURCHASES, WHEN THEY OCCUR, SHOULD BE BEGINNING OF STEPS TO BE DETERMINED AS MORE DATA COMES IN "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- LOCKHART: FED DECISION TO REDUCE BOND BUYS, WHETHER SEPT, OCT OR DEC, SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF AS CAUTIOUS FIRST STEP "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED’S LOCKHART: DON’T EXPECT TO HAVE ENOUGH DATA BY SEPT TO BE ABLE TO LAY OUT FULL PHASE-OUT OF ASSET PURCHASE PLAN "
Matt Sullivan  :  "REPRICE: 12:23 PM - Fifth Third Mortgage Worse"
Jerrod Nash  :  "REPRICE: 12:22 PM - Chase Worse"
Jerrod Nash  :  "REPRICE: 12:02 PM - PennyMac Worse"
Nate Miller  :  "REPRICE: 12:02 PM - Green Tree Worse"
Nate Miller  :  "REPRICE: 11:46 AM - Caliber Funding Worse"
Michael Gillani  :  "It's impossible to compete with a liar Dustin. 100% of consumers will believe them because what they're saying sounds better. It doesn't matter what happens in the end, they still won't call you back out of embarrassment when the deal changes in the last minute."
Michael Gillani  :  "Liars lie harder and more often in this volatile, rising rate environment."
Tim Y  :  "or that BOA guy had the foresight to lock him without him knowing...I locked a 6 people in when things started to get ugly. and ended up closing 5 extra deals cause I had the upper hand"
Chris Kopec  :  "Dustin, that's the sort of stuff the Fed didn't factor into it's originator compensation formula."
Dustin McAlister  :  "thanks, gotta love liars....working this guy since beginning of june, tells me he isn't locked with anyone,,,,multiple estimates and lots of hours later say he is going with BOA on aug 8th...tell him we can beat them for sure if he locked aug 8th....get the GFE, lock june 12th for 90 days....are you kidding, i am at a 141 bps disadvantage..."
Chris Kopec  :  "Organic growth, Tim Y."
Tim Y  :  "Man we are getting beat on today...100bps in lower coupons in two days. "
Victor Burek  :  "advanced charts"
Dustin McAlister  :  "what is the easiest way to compare where MBS was on June 12th compared to today? "
Ted Rood  :  "Good job, ES. Post it to your profile here. or have client put in on your profile."
Eric Schuchaskie  :  "I got my first testimonial - thank you MBS live!"
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