MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Looking over the calendar of events (and holidays) at home and abroad today, we were expecting things to be fairly muted, but the lack of activity, volume, and volatility still managed to surprise us. Fannie 3.0s never went higher or lower than the highs and lows set in the first 15 minutes of trading. That's uncommon no matter the circumstances, but only 2 days after the big QE3 announcement, it seems almost eerily flat. Although we generally try not to read too much into technical signals when volume is low, there was a bit of ominous resistance in MBS today at Friday's major pivot point near 104-07.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
2:04PM :
ALERT ISSUED:
MBS Down An Eighth From Rate Sheet Time, Negative Risks Increase
Granted 4 ticks is fairly minor, but we wanted to get an alert out to those of you looking at the 2-day MBS chart as the huge swings on Friday can tend to make today's range look completely flat. In actuality, we're down 4 ticks on the day which is usually the first line in the sand before increased risk of negative reprices. We're not stampeding lower by any means--simply at the weaker end of today's range. Fannie 3.0s are still 3 ticks higher on the day at 104-01+ and 10's are down 3.4bps at 1.836.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Victor Burek : "REPRICE: 3:43 PM - Nexbank Worse"
the_norris_group : "REPRICE: 2:38 PM - Wells Fargo Worse"
Matthew Graham : "There are a lot of ancillary considerations here... Like how connected will MBS even be to Treasuries at the moment? and can we get a few more days of "pull back" to float in situations like Syii's? At the end of the day, even if I'm emotionally heartened by holding ground, I think if you plugged all the variables into a super-computer, it would tell you to lock, based primarily on 1) the nearness to all-time lows, 2) the unbroken uptrend in benchmark interest rates, and 3) the "too-soon-to-t"
Matthew Graham : "thanks for the input guys. RE: lock/float, on an emotional level, it's encouraging to have held ground over the weekend and also (morbidly) to see a bit of an uptick in the drama factor out of the EU. It's encouraging for 10yr yields not to be breaking into the 1.9's to start the week, BUT, as I noted earlier in the day, and as you can see on advanced charts, even if yields were to continue to trend higher, we'd still likely be seeing a bit of a pull-back at these levels. "
Alan Craft : "What Matt said"
Matt Hodges : "lock, we have lost ground during the day"
Ryan Kelly : "MG, my best rates were still 7/23"
syii tucker : "MG, you have the crystal ball for sure, where do you think we are headed today. I gotta lock today or tomorrow to close a streamline."
Matthew Graham : "yeah, some sheets were better Friday for sure. "
MortgageMan007 : "no I actually had better rates Friday morning MG"
Matt Hodges : "depends on how much secondary is juicing, mg"
BVG : "To our approved Broker Partners of Pinnacle Capital,
Due to recent feedback we have received from our legal counsel and our regulators regarding Fair Lending and disparate treatment concerns in the mortgage industry, Pinnacle Capital is making the following Broker compensation changes to address these issues:
Effective October 1st, Broker compensation will have a 50 basis point flexibility from the base comp that will be set for each Regional Production center.
For example, if your Region is s"
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