MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
While the overnight session saw increased volume and movement, the domestic session has been broadly similar to yesterday's in terms of the distribution of volume across the hours. Also similar is the narrowness of the range in production MBS, which borders on remarkable. We're impressed by the range in that it's been a quarter point on the first two days this week after the previous two sessions average over a point between highs and lows. That's a steep drop-off in realized volatility and combined with Treasury benchmarks under 1.80, adds incrementally to the case for Fannie 3.0s getting comfortable in the 104's. The morning's data was a non-issue despite varying more than a little from expectations. It's especially interesting to note that builder sentiment came in at the best levels since June 2006, though the majority of the gain was led by sales expectations over the next six months.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Pricing as of 11:05 AM EST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
10:45AM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Slightly Cautious Heading Into Fed Buyback Completion
The 11:02am results of almost daily scheduled Fed "Twist" buybacks always has the potential to cause a bit of volatility or a more pronounced move in one direction or another. As bond markets have generally weakened during this buyback (10:15 - 11:00am), any further weakness takes us into territory where negative reprice risks would be increasing.
Even now, we're a bit cautious as Fannie 3.0s have put in several ticks around the 104-05 level vs 104-08 to 104-09 during rate sheet generation time. We'd stay vigilant here for any further weakness, especially right after 11:00am.
Even now, we're a bit cautious as Fannie 3.0s have put in several ticks around the 104-05 level vs 104-08 to 104-09 during rate sheet generation time. We'd stay vigilant here for any further weakness, especially right after 11:00am.
10:03AM :
ECON: Builder Confidence Highest Since June 2006 - NAHB
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for a fifth consecutive month in September to a level of 40 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This latest three-point gain brings the index to its highest reading since June of 2006.
“This fifth consecutive month of improvement in builder confidence provides further assurance that the housing market is moving in a positive direction, but there’s still a long way to go on the road to recovery and several obstacles are slowing our progress,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “In particular, unnecessarily tight credit conditions are preventing many builders from putting crews back to work – which would create needed jobs -- and discouraging consumers from pursuing a new-home purchase.”
“Builders across the country are expressing a more positive outlook on current sales conditions, future sales prospects and the amount of consumer traffic they are seeing through model homes than they have in more than five years,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, against the improving demand for new homes, concerns are now rising about the lack of building lots in certain markets and the rising cost of building materials. Given the fragile nature of the housing and economic recovery, these are significant red flags.”
“This fifth consecutive month of improvement in builder confidence provides further assurance that the housing market is moving in a positive direction, but there’s still a long way to go on the road to recovery and several obstacles are slowing our progress,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “In particular, unnecessarily tight credit conditions are preventing many builders from putting crews back to work – which would create needed jobs -- and discouraging consumers from pursuing a new-home purchase.”
“Builders across the country are expressing a more positive outlook on current sales conditions, future sales prospects and the amount of consumer traffic they are seeing through model homes than they have in more than five years,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, against the improving demand for new homes, concerns are now rising about the lack of building lots in certain markets and the rising cost of building materials. Given the fragile nature of the housing and economic recovery, these are significant red flags.”
9:10AM :
ALERT ISSUED:
Bond Markets Steady In Stronger Territory, Unaffected By Data
As expected, the week's economic data continues to have a limited effect on trading levels as this morning's narrower-than-expected trade deficit and surging foreign investments in US Treasuries (in the ancient month of July) barely made a peep.
Ostensibly more correlated with a bit of strength overnight is the biggest piece of German data overnight, the ZEW Sentiment survey. The headline actually declined less than expected, which would normally be negative for bond markets, but the recent high point of the data set--"Current Conditions"-- moved in a bond-market-friendly direction falling from 18.2 to 12.6.
All that notwithstanding, bond markets were already in the throws of a slightly positive overnight session before that data and continue doing fairly well in its wake. Participation and volume have increased as expected today and combined with the bond market gains, helps to solidify some level of "supportive ceiling" in the mid 1.8's (10yr yields).
As we've noted, we can't assume a normal level of connection between MBS and Treasuries at the moment, but the biggest discrepancies were seen last week after the QE3 announcement. We're still sensitive to trading levels in 10's as they can better provide clues as to broader shifts in fixed income sentiment.
With that in mind, it's "so far so good" today with 10's trading in the 1.79's for most of the domestic session. Fannie 3.0 MBS are up 10 ticks at 104-08 and stock futures are almost perfectly flat with yesterday's 4pm levels.
Ostensibly more correlated with a bit of strength overnight is the biggest piece of German data overnight, the ZEW Sentiment survey. The headline actually declined less than expected, which would normally be negative for bond markets, but the recent high point of the data set--"Current Conditions"-- moved in a bond-market-friendly direction falling from 18.2 to 12.6.
All that notwithstanding, bond markets were already in the throws of a slightly positive overnight session before that data and continue doing fairly well in its wake. Participation and volume have increased as expected today and combined with the bond market gains, helps to solidify some level of "supportive ceiling" in the mid 1.8's (10yr yields).
As we've noted, we can't assume a normal level of connection between MBS and Treasuries at the moment, but the biggest discrepancies were seen last week after the QE3 announcement. We're still sensitive to trading levels in 10's as they can better provide clues as to broader shifts in fixed income sentiment.
With that in mind, it's "so far so good" today with 10's trading in the 1.79's for most of the domestic session. Fannie 3.0 MBS are up 10 ticks at 104-08 and stock futures are almost perfectly flat with yesterday's 4pm levels.
8:37AM :
ECON: Trade Gap Narrows More Than Expected
- Current Account Deficit $117.41 bln vs 124.5 bln consensus
- Deficit equates to 3 pct of GDp vs 3.5 pct in Q1
The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $117.4 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter from $133.6 billion (revised) in the first quarter. The decrease in the current-account deficit was accounted for by a decrease in the deficit on goods and an increase in the surplus on income.
- Deficit equates to 3 pct of GDp vs 3.5 pct in Q1
The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $117.4 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter from $133.6 billion (revised) in the first quarter. The decrease in the current-account deficit was accounted for by a decrease in the deficit on goods and an increase in the surplus on income.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2006 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- NAHB SEPT INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS 51 VERSUS REVISED 43 IN AUG "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - NAHB SEPT INDEX OF CURRENT SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 42 VERSUS REVISED 38 IN AUG "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. SEPTEMBER NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 40 (CONSENSUS 38) VERSUS 37 IN AUGUST "
Victor Burek : "who supplies the ink..probably a good stock to buy?"
Andrew Horowitz : "my money is on Evans"
Matthew Graham : "Evans vs Burek 2012!"
Victor Burek : "get that printing press fired up!!"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS SAYS SEES NO EVIDENCE OF UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS EXPECTS 'ROBUST DISCUSSION' AT FED OVER WHAT CONSTITUTES JOBS IMPROVEMENT TARGETED BY QE3, HARD TO USE A SINGLE NUMBER "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - EVANS-IF DON"T SEE STRONG EMPLOYMENT BY YEAR-END WHEN OPERATION TWIST EXPIRES, WOULD EXPECT FED TO BOOST QE3 TO KEEP TOTAL MONTHLY ASSET PURCHASES AT $85 BLN/MTH "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED'S EVANS - WOULD BE SURPRISED IF SEE EVIDENCE OF STRONG EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY END OF THIS YEAR "
Ted Rood : "My client got notice lender approved their short sale offer.....after 4 months.....now we just have the pesky 2nd lien to deal with. Sure we might hear on that by time home goes into foreclosure."
Matt Hodges : "nice way to start the day...word of ratified contract over night"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. JULY NET OVERALL CAPITAL INFLOW $73.7 BLN VS REVISED $15.1 BLN INFLOW IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS-IF COULD UNCLOG TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS, BY ADJUSTING HOME REFINANCING PROGRAMS, FED STIMULUS WOULD HAVE MORE EFFECT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS-OUGHT TO BE POSSIBLE FOR CONGRESS, PRESIDENT TO PROVIDE 'A LITTLE HELP' TO ECONOMY AND ALSO TACKLE LONG-TERM FISCAL PROBLEMS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS-FED'S NEW STIMULUS HAS BUILT-IN SAFEGUARDS ON INFLATION, EFFECTIVENESS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EVANS-FED HAS MORE EASING TOOLS, INCLUDING MORE PRECISE FORWARD GUIDANCE ON POLICY INTENTIONS, FURTHER ASSET PURCHASES "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED IS 'RUNNING FLAT OUT AS MUCH AS WE CAN' ON MONETARY EASING POLICIES, EVANS SAYS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT EQUAL TO 3.0 PCT OF GDP VS 3.5 PCT IN Q1-COMMERCE DEPT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT $117.41 BLN (CONSENSUS $125.5 BLN BLN), Q1 DEFICIT $133.62 BLN (PREV $137.31 BLN) "
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