MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
It's still possible to count the number of days where Fannie 3.0s have closed over 104-00 without using toes, though today seems set to make that one step closer to impossible. Prices traded a narrow range of 104-02 to 104-10 and since 11am, only 104-02 to 104-06! These are extremely narrow ranges given the massive swings last Thursday and Friday, and would even be on the narrower range for any old trading day regardless of it's nearness to epic QE3 announcements and such. Volume turned out to be surprisingly low as well, despite what appeared to be a quicker start in the Asian and European hours. The discrepancy between volume and volatility over the past two days versus that of the previous two sessions (on Thursday and Friday), is large enough to be interesting. Either markets are doing a quick job of settling into new normals or we're about to see more pronounced movement.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
1:09PM :
Fed's Dudley Provides Concise Mission Statement For QE3
New York Fed President William Dudley hit all the relevant points today in a prepared speech to the Morris Country Chamber of Commerce, giving balanced treatment to the recently announced QE3.
To hear Dudley say it, the "if's and then's" of current Fed policy are simple: If the economy weakens, the Fed will buy more assets and if the economy strengthens, the Fed will buy less assets. Dudley said simply: "the amount of asset purchases that we undertake will be a function of how the economy evolves."
He further noted that a strengthening economy would have to be accompanied by substantial improvement in labor markets and that marginal declines in unemployment (or those driven by a drop in the labor-force participation rate) would not qualify as "substantial."
The NY Fed Pres was also careful to note that the extension of the low-rate verbiage was not due to economic pessimism, but rather because the Fed does not want to remove accommodation prematurely, saying: " "If you’re trying to get a car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don’t stop pushing the moment the wheels start turning--you keep pushing until the car is rolling and is clearly free."
To hear Dudley say it, the "if's and then's" of current Fed policy are simple: If the economy weakens, the Fed will buy more assets and if the economy strengthens, the Fed will buy less assets. Dudley said simply: "the amount of asset purchases that we undertake will be a function of how the economy evolves."
He further noted that a strengthening economy would have to be accompanied by substantial improvement in labor markets and that marginal declines in unemployment (or those driven by a drop in the labor-force participation rate) would not qualify as "substantial."
The NY Fed Pres was also careful to note that the extension of the low-rate verbiage was not due to economic pessimism, but rather because the Fed does not want to remove accommodation prematurely, saying: " "If you’re trying to get a car moving that is stuck in the mud, you don’t stop pushing the moment the wheels start turning--you keep pushing until the car is rolling and is clearly free."
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Jason York : "Flagstar is 95% for cash in hand, or paying off non-mortgage debt, or at least that is what they used to be"
Kent Mikkola #353976 : "FLagstar if you are paying off mortgages"
Kent Mikkola #353976 : "Pacific Union and Flagstar do 100% cash out VA refis on the wholesale side"
Brent Borcherding : "Call the inside sales team."
Brent Borcherding : "It is their portfolio VA, I did one earlier this year. Who is your rep?"
Curt Sandfort : "if that's true, I must need a new rep, cuz I just asked my guy"
Brent Borcherding : "Impac"
Curt Sandfort : "any wholesalers doing 100% cashout on VA to VA?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED'S DUDLEY SAYS NEAR-TERM PACE OF U.S. GROWTH LIKELY TO REMAIN DISAPPOINTING "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - DUDLEY SAYS EXTENSION OF LOW-RATES GUIDANCE TO MID-2015 NOT DUE TO PESSIMISM ABOUT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - DUDLEY: PAYROLL GROWTH MUST BE SUPPORTED BY STRONGER ECONOMIC GROWTH; FALLING JOBLESS RATES CANNOT BE DUE MAINLY TO LESS PARTICIPATION "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FED'S DUDLEY SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECLINING 'A BIT' IS NOT 'SUBSTANTIAL' IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. FED'S DUDLEY SAYS CENTRAL BANK WILL BUY MORE ASSETS IF ECONOMY WEAKENS "
Matt Hodges : "Thursday is no big deal, but more Gfees will hit on Friday, Bert"
Victor Burek : "if initial docs, i would float..if closing thurs lock"
Bert Swyers : "lock now or float, thursday 6pm signup?"
Victor Burek : "instead of releasing from our storage which is there for emergencies"
Victor Burek : "a better option would be to drill baby drill"
Matthew Graham : "with gas over 4 bucks, I'd hope any president, election year or not, would keep this option on the table as the economy tries to prove it can recover. "
Justin Harward : "FML, locked two loans in on Friday afraid monday could be worse. Of course pricing improved by .75 with today over Friday"
Rob Clark : "Election year. What timing."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS-WHITE HOUSE SAYS 'ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE' IN DEALING WITH OIL MARKETS INCLUDING SPR RELEASE"
Jeff Anderson : "GM, all. Looks like yesterday on the chart. Deja Vu, all over again. We have a concrete ceiling at 104-08ish? Boo to you!"
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