Today was a boring day in bond markets. Volume was low. Trading ranges held inside previous days' trading ranges. Benchmarks ended the week perfectly in line with the levels that prevailed after Tuesday's payrolls data. There was no volatility and no compelling statement made about momentum heading into next week.
That's actually a good thing considering the only momentum signal at risk was a turn toward weaker levels. It's also good to have boring days when MBS are calmly holding a 5 tick improvement. The other positive takeaway is that we were finally treated to some discernible connection between the data and trading levels. Granted, it wasn't much but the weaker economic data this morning resulted in immediate movement in Treasuries and MBS.
This normally wouldn't be much of a surprise, but it's the first time we've had the chance to observe such a thing in over 4 weeks apart from Tuesday's payrolls numbers. What's the implication? Hopefully it means we can look for more of the same next week as more of the previously delayed economic data arrives along with a Treasury auction cycle and an FOMC Announcement. This Fed meeting isn't going to hold any policy-related surprises, but it could still be worth something to get official confirmation of the more reserved tone.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
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Pricing as of 4:09 PM EST
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Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.
3:08PM :
Coasting Uneventfully Into the Weekend
Here's an update for the sake of having an update on an otherwise action-less day. MBS prices are currently at the exact same levels as the first update of the day. They've been less than 4 ticks higher or lower ever since.
10yr yields are down 1.76 on the day to 2.503, effectively keeping them right in the middle of the post-NFP range. Volume has been nonexistent, having dropped off abruptly after bonds hit the day's best levels at 10:30am. This increasingly looks like it will have been an unofficial "early close" for today.
The post 3pm time-frame is shaping up supportively so far. Sellers had been in control in Treasuries and to whatever extent they had selling to do, it would be done by 3pm, when most Treasury trade desks mark the end of the day, and in this case, the end of the week as well. All that suggests is that there may have been a slight pressure acting to keep bond markets contained today, and that pressure is now lifted.
Whether this introduces positive reprice potential for mortgages is a bit unclear as prices have already been as high as they are now, and still only 2-3 ticks higher than morning rate sheets. Most lenders would want to see additional positivity for anything other than a "stability reprice."
Live Chat Featured Comments
Ted Rood : "can stream, borrower staying on must have paid last 6 months, may have to income qualify, have to meet net benefit."
Nate Miller : "is there ever a way to streamline a brwr (FHA) & remove a spouse from title due to order from divorce decree, or does removing brwr always make it ineligible for streamline?"
Daniel Kramer : "our lock desk just said the same thin"
Ira Selwin : "ha. I'm gettnig the same error as well."
Christopher Stevens : "Just went to their site and they state "currently updsating pricing" "
Christopher Stevens : "has anyone rec'd Chase pricing"
Ira Selwin : "If you broker deals, and make less, but offer a more competitive rate when you broker, it could be viewed as steering if you dont broker all files"
john murphy : "CR maybe you can offer to sponsor with your local AMC or appraiser. education sorely lacking in most BOR's, except how to secure the commission. level of industry knowledge has not advanced at all in 20 years ive been doing this. we jsut did CON-ED on Dodd frank appraisal for realtors and went well."
Robert Rippy : "Why would anyone take the risk if there was not more income involved?"
Robert Rippy : "CS, I am considering moving to correspondent and the sole reason would be to make more money by not having to count lender paid compensation. So YES, there would be a disparity between a brokered deal and a correspondent deal."
Curt Sandfort : "it's a concern of mine as I am "morphing" into correspondent"
Caroline Roy : "do you guys feel like realtors need to have a course on why above and below grade square footage is not equal? this seems to come up just about every other week lately. Insane that many can't grasp that fact. "
Curt Sandfort : "If there is disparity in pricing between your broker channel and banking channel, are you concerned that one may be used to charge a client more?"
Robert Rippy : "Okay, so this may have been discussed already when I was not in here but in the commentary this morning there was a section on diversity. It almost read like they are going to be checking the diversity of my staff and not just checking to see if we are red-lining. Am I reading that correctly?"
MBS Market Alerts
