Pre Obama Housing Plan Press Conference Prices...
1015 marks...
FN30__________________________________
FN 4.5 -------->>>> +0-01 to 101-05 from 101-04
FN 5.0 -------->>>> +0-01 to 102-07 from 102-06
FN 5.5 -------->>>> +0-01 to 102-24 from 102-23
FN 6.0 -------->>>> -0-01 to 103-11 from 103-12
GN30__________________________________
GN 4.5 -------->>>> +0-03 to 101-10 from 101-07
GN 5.0 -------->>>> +0-08 to 102-21 from 102-13
GN 5.5 -------->>>> +0-06 to 103-02 from 102-28
GN 6.0 -------->>>> -0-01 to 103-09 from 103-10
Economic Press Releases
Data: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Index
Press Release: http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/67707.htm
Results: +45.7%
Excerpts from press release...
"...for the week ending February 13, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 875.3, an increase of 45.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 600.6 one week earlier.....The Refinance Index increased 64.3 percent to 4472.9 from 2722.7 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.1 percent to 257.3 from 235.9 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index increased 10.9 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) increased 5.5 percent"
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 74.2 percent of total applications from 66.7 percent the previous week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.99 percent from 5.19 percent, with points increasing to 1.37 from 1.20...
Comments: Increased Application Activity adds a wee bit more prepayment worry to MBS market participant's models. This prepay anxiety aids in the deterioration of the "up in coupon" trading bias. Higher points charged does offer some prepayment protection but the group of borrowers that just "pulled the trigger" so they should not be looking for a new refi anytime soon...
Data: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Press Release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm
Results: Import Prices -1.1%, Export Prices +0.5%
Excerpts from press release...
"The U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.1 percent in January...following decreases in each of the previous five months. In contrast, export prices rose for the first time in six months, advancing 0.5 percent in January."
"Import prices fell 1.1 percent in January and 23.4 percent over the past six months. For the sixth consecutive month, petroleum prices and nonpetroleum prices decreased, falling 2.4 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, in January....Prices for both overall imports and petroleum decreased at a smaller rate in January than in each of the previous five months since prices last rose in July."
"Petroleum prices fell 69.1 percent over the past six months and 55.0 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decline since the index was first published in June 1982."
"Overall, import prices fell 12.5 percent for the year ended in January, the largest 12-month decline since the index was first published in September 1982."
"Export prices rose 0.5 percent in January after declining in each of the previous five months. The increase was driven by a 6.2 percent rise in agricultural prices as nonagricultural prices were unchanged.... overall export prices fell 3.6 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since the index fell 3.8 percent for the year ended in November 1998."
Comments: Less Price weakness than expected. Although we are experiencing disinflation...this data indicates appear we haven't reached deflation yet
Data: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G17)
Press Release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
Results: -1.8%
Excerpts from press release...
"Industrial production fell 1.8 percent in January. At 101.3 percent of its 2002 average, output in January was 10.0 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in the manufacturing sector dropped 2.5 percent with broad-based declines among its components. A plunge in motor vehicle and parts production that resulted from extended plant shutdowns subtracted more than 1.0 percentage point from the change in manufacturing production. The output of mines moved down 1.3 percent. A swing to below-average temperatures contributed to an increase of 2.7 percent in the output of utilities. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell to 72.0 percent, a rate 8.9 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2008."
Comments: Three Words and one picture should sum it up for you...
DEEP MANUFACTURING RECESSION
Data: New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)
Press Release: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
Results:
Excerpts from press release...
BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 521,000. This is 4.8 percent (±3.5%) below the revised December rate of 547,000 and is 50.5 percent (±2.2%) below the revised January 2008 estimate of 1,052,000.
Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 335,000; this is 8.0 percent (±1.8%) below the December figure of 364,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 166,000 in January.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 466,000. This is 16.8 percent (±11.0%) below the revised December estimate of 560,000 and is 56.2 percent (±4.4%) below the revised January 2008 rate of 1,064,000.
Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 347,000; this is 12.2 percent (±13.0%)* below the December figure of 395,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 114,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000. This is 24.2 percent (±5.9%) below the revised December estimate of 1,024,000 and is 41.7 percent (±6.9%) below the revised January 2008 rate of 1,331,000.
Single-family housing completions in January were at a rate of 566,000; this is 17.5 percent (±7.2%) below the December figure of 686,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 203,000.
Comments: Housing is still in the crapper
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