Just a quick update here to let you know that further losses have pushed us exactly to our long term trendline at 99-19 on 4.0's.
A more robust closing post will be out shortly, but a few tidbits from what's to come:
- MBS are down on the day by roughtly the same amount as their treasury counterparts. In fact, the MBS stack is more or less trading in concert with the yield curve with the lower coupons (longer duration) losing the most and higher coupons (short duration, corresponding to two year treasury space) losing the least.
- Markets may be seeing some liquidation in preparation for stress tests and a big data day tomorrow
- We still have not broken through our support line at 99-19
- Settlement week coming up which is a traditionally supportive week
- Treasuries getting high enough for Fed to step in? Or for technical rebound?