As stocks have kicked into overdrive with the Dow cresting 9000 and the S&P flirting with 970's, the 10yr Tsy has backed up to the 3.6's and 4.5's are now 12 ticks down on the day at 99-24.  You can see on the chart that we've had a substantial bounce at 99-19. 

Does that price level ring any bells for anyone?  It should...  It's the 50% retracement level / internal horizontal trendline we've been talking so much about in recent months. 

What it means for now is that once you've seen the half a point (give or take) of losses come across in today's rates, this is your next trigger.  Moving below 99-19 by more than a tick or two for more than a few minutes is a clear short term lock alert.  The lower prices go or the longer they stay under that level, the more suggestive the situation becomes of longer term lock biases.  For today, if you haven't seen any yet, reprices for the worse are likely from lenders that priced before 10AM eastern.  But if you got rates after 10:30 AM, don't rush to lock just yet...  Stay tuned...