Someone snuck into bond market central today and stole the volatility right out from under our noses. Afternoon trading ranges have adhered beautifully to the two levels that have proven the most significant for the last four months. That will be shown on the chart of current action by the two red lines. But we have to cram a bit more onto said charts owing to additional interesting visual representations of our reality over the last few days.
In short, you'll see 3 different isolated events and the effect they had on trading in a short period of time. In this way, we can see who the big dogs are. It may be more appropriate to say "who the big dogs were this time around," due to the fact that roles could have been reveresed or otherwise shuffled if they deviated from the mean by the right amount and in the right direction.
After you've taken a moment to note the extremely positive correlation in the stock lever today (stock price down / bond price up. Since we chart the 10yr in yield, the more similar the curves, the higher the correlation of the stock lever), let's move on to today's contest: WHO HAS THE MOST MARKET MOVING POWER OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. I know you can already see the winner, but I thought we should make a laudatory podium of sorts to get an even better idea of the comparison:
King Fed wins again. And despite the vote of significance for this AM's econ data shown by the stock market, the massive impact of yesterday's FOMC announcement has lessened the volatility impact on the bond market, at least to a small extent. In other words, it provided a lot of information for the bond market. Good information.
The trend going into the close is good in both MBS and Tsy's and even Tsy Futures. All kinds of horizontal resistance levels are continuing unbroken into the PM. For MBS, that's somewhere around 100-25 with 10yr futures firm at 117-22 despite some moderate volume blips here and there. To whatever extent you're seeing your best rates in 4 months, you might also be leaning towards pipeline protection. Or feel free to chase the dragon with the outside bet that we can crack and hold over 101-00 and that stocks will continue to sell off. Good luck with that one. I'd probably take some profit though. As AQ discussed earlier, I'd also be wary of that same sentiment existing elsewhere in the market as investors may look to take profit, especially if we move over 101-00 early tomorrow.
MBS, Tsy, and LIBOR Quotes