I'm not much for old movies, but I'm thinking about re-making "How Green Was My Valley."
It would be hard to find a more pertinent title for a movie about today's trading for not one, but two reasons.
- In the form of two very clearly delineated trend channels, MBS prices have formed a "valley" today. That's easy enough to see.
- If we change the title a bit, we can also speak comically about the interaction between treasuries and Stocks
New title: "How Firm Was My Lever"
Reason being: exactly as AQ pointed out this AM, the lever is in play on this limited day of data ahead of some significant releases and ongoing auctions.
Looks nice, no? Well, all's well that ends well, and despite the low-ish volume today, it looks like one of the halves of the stock lever is fixin' to sell sell sell (one can hope at least). That leads tsy's right into the brick wall that has been the 3.62 level this afternoon, so we'd have to see how willing the 10yr yield is to break through. It's possible, but with Auctions and FOMC coming up tomorrow, I wouldn't expect the lever to stay as connected as it has been so far today..
All that said, if all's well that end's well, AND stocks DO sell off, let's just say: all's well.
Not even impossible to see reprices for the better if this current positive trend channel continues.