After reaching as high as 101-20, MBS 4.5's are back down to 101-14. Its seems that layers of support are building at levels that would leave 4.5's at PAR after settlement next week. Far be it from me to suggest there's some sort of external force that continues to push 4.5's toward that 101-00 level, but it LOOKS that way on the chart at least.
Meanwhile, stocks had recovered 100% of today's losses, though with the close still 20 minutes away, difficult to say where things will end. As for treasuries, the yield curve is reasonably unchanged on the day save for a little bulge in the belly (5's and 7's leading the pack by 2bps). All told, the stock lever did what we wanted it to do in the case of a stock sell-off today, and as stocks have rallied, little of what we wouldn't want it to do! The resiliency of bonds and MBS continues...
Normally, after a 7 tick loss in MBS, we might start talking about reprices for the worse as an outside possibility, but that's such an insanely remote possibility, that it only makes sense to act on it for deals you're already planning on locking today, AND at lenders who you already feel have priced in a ton of the gains. If you look at the bigger picture for stocks:
and bonds
the situation doesn't seem to warrant any panic whatsoever...
We'll let you know if if tsy yields get much higher than 3.56 in the next hour and change.