As the day winds down, MBS have put in a linear series of higher lows and are now 6 ticks up on the day at 101-03.  Meanwhile, the 10yr did end up testing the 3.67 level where we drew the line in the sand in the previous commentary.  You'll be able to see a nice bounce off that resistance, in line with Friday's low yields, before moving lower and giving sort of a supportive nod back in that same direction.  Any way you slice it, we're still only at 3.66.

100-27 to 100-29 is the name of the game for the moment.  That band of prices is the longest running and still the most frequently visited pivot point for the 4.5 coupon.  The higher MBS prices get in relation to that pivot, the more "locky" I'm feeling.  Likewise, if prices were to be operating slightly higher on any given day (like today) and suddenly break below that range (hopefully unlike today), I'd also get the keys out as it would be time to lock up.  But as long as we're CLOSE but not moving meaningfully under, it's a safe enough intraday wave to ride. 

As for tomorrow, it's unclear whether the market will want to move appreciably before the afternoon FOMC minutes.  It would seem to SOUND good to say so, but recently, we've seen plenty of movement lead data/events in terms of pure price.  So don't take anything for granted overnight, but if you wake up with all limbs intact, at least you'll likely get rates far in advance of FOMC, and then have the comparatively easy task of simply floating intraday and locking on any significant losses.