• AM opened stronger in both MBS and Treasuries
• 4.5 closed at 100-13, opened at 100-16, now back down to 100-13
• 10y tsy closed at 3.867, opened at 3.858, now up to 3.879
• If you don't have rates yet, now looking to come out slightly weaker
• limited to no risk of early rate sheets getting a reprice
• consumer confidence still to come

This AM begins largely as yesterday ended.  That's not to say that prices are the same, but it IS to say that we're still in the same range, with the 10yr treasury putting in a lower high and a higher low than yesterday's high and low respectively ("inside day"). 

Using your microscope, you might be able to see the hint of a top forming on the treasury yield chart.  hopefully, that materializes, which would help MBS do the same.  We start the discussion with treasuries today (and most days recently) because as far as MBS are concerned, treasuries are calling the shots.  Recent movements have concerned the broader rates market and since MBS spreads have been more volatile as Fed Exit approaches, and because treasuries speak more to the broader rates market anyway, that's the better read on the big picture.

Case Shiller Home Price Index is out this AM.  Here are the details:

• 10 city MoM change ............................  - 0.2% (unchanged from previous). 
• 10 city MoM Seasonally Adjusted ......... +0.4% (previously +0.3%)
• 10 city YoY ..........................................-19.4% (previously -3.1%)

This time of AM, all we can do is watch things play out as we await Consumer Confidence at 10am.  If MBS prices or treasury yields break out of yesterday's ranges, we'll let you know.