• FN 4.5 prices up 6 ticks to 100-09
• 10yr note yield lower roughly 2 bps at 3.794
• S&P down just over 1 pt.  Dow is up 26 pts.
• Plenty of indecision remains ahead of auctions
• Short term trends remain undecided to supportive for bonds whereas longer term bear trends remain intact

10yr Treasuries would still have room to fall to nearly 3.75 and still remain in their 3+ month trend of higher yields.  In fact, given the support around 3.83 to 3.84, that wouldn't be all that surprising, but the ability to move into the lower 3.7 range gets a little less certain.

Here's a look at the recently broken downtrend.

As far as either breaking higher (in yield) over 3.84  or lower past 3.75 (resistance not shown on chart), a couple key events will be informative this week: FOMC and auctions.  Ben and the gang are out on Wednesday with a policy announcement.  An hour before that, 5yr notes auction results will be posted, flanked by 2's and 7's at the same 1pm time slot on Tuesday and Thursday.  Today's TIPS auction usually isn't that big of a mover for MBS, but it bears mentioning at least that we'd hope for no "bad surprises."

There's no other data today, so the low-ish volume and volatility is not too surprising, but in addition to the two headliners mentioned above, the data calendar is rather "meaty" of its own accord beginning tomorrow.  Well before the 1pm announcement on 2yr notes, we'll already have seen Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, and State St. Investor Confidence. Should be an interesting week!  I'm feeling "defensive" about the impending volatility.