MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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FNMA 3.5
95-01 : 0-10
FNMA 4.0
98-28 : 0-07
FNMA 4.5
102-03 : 0-06
FNMA 5.0
104-26 : 0-03
GNMA 3.5
95-24 : 0-13
GNMA 4.0
100-05 : 0-09
GNMA 4.5
103-08 : 0-06
GNMA 5.0
106-01 : 0-03
FHLMC 3.5
94-29 : 0-11
FHLMC 4.0
98-23 : 0-09
FHLMC 4.5
101-31 : 0-06
FHLMC 5.0
104-21 : 0-04
Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
3:11PM  :  Bond Market Stutters Late Day, But Recovers By 3pm Close
FNCL 4.5's went out the door at 102-03 with 10yr tsy yields in the 3.385 range. Losses were seen at 2:40 but nothing severe. MBS fell to 102-02 and 10yr yields rose to 3.40+. Current, after hours levels are 102-04 and 3.3834 respectively.
2:28PM  :  MBS Stay Strong, 10yr Yields Into 3.38's
3.38 marks the lowest Yield seen in the immediate wake of the FOMC announcement yesterday. Currently 10yr yields are at 3.3853 and have been trending lower in fits and starts since today's auction. FNCL 4.5's continue their directional and slow-paced rally, having added on a few ticks since last check, currently at 102-06. Reprices for the better continue to trickle and if you haven't seen one from a particular lender, chances are better and better that you will.
1:50PM  :  MBS Rally Directionally Into "Reprice For The Better" Territory
There's a distinction between "directional" and "big" sadly. FNCL 4.5's have experienced very little volatility as they have steadily gained from their pre-auction lows. In fact, the auction is almost imperceptible on the MBS chart as we it seems to have simply solidified the previous movements. 4.5's are currently at 102-03 and a few reprices for the better have been seen already. 10yr note yields are baking their second push down toward 3.40 after a bit of a post-auction head-fake where they backed up to the pivot point.
1:11PM  :  Treasuries Break Resistance Following Auction
After the FOMC announcement yesterday, 10yr notes have met with firm resistance just under 3.42. Yields ground into that level yesterday afternoon and again on several occasions this morning, including in the minute or two immediately preceding the auction. After the 1:01pm results, yield promptly moved lower and are currently at 3.405--not a face-melting rally, but decidedly on the positive side. FNCL 4.5's moved to their highest levels of the day at 102-01. Even if current levels are merely MAINTAINED, reprices for the better will be possible shortly. But that is not a foregone conclusion as a good deal of indecision pervades both sides of the bond market with no definitive moves in one direction or another since the initial few minutes after the results. We're still in "wait and see" mode.
1:11PM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
1:03PM  :  Data Flash: 7yr Auction Results
U.S. SELLS $29 BLN 7-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 2.744 PCT, AWARDS 95.59 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH *** U.S. 7-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.85, NON-COMP BIDS $17.20 MLN *** US TREASURY - PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $12.23 BLN OF 7-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $15.11 BLN
12:35PM  :  Bonds Enter Consolidative
Lower highs in 10yr yields are forming a triangle sort of pattern into what looks like the firmest resistance to further gains so far this morning at 3.42. MBS are back up at 101-30, indeed making chances of reprices for the worse quite slim. Again, it seems like the 7yr auction will be the deciding factor in moving out of this triangle.
11:59AM  :  Bond Market Has Hard Time Moving Below 3.44 Ahead Of Auction
Stocks have peeled away from there first and most serious attempt at 1300 S&P but 10yr notes remain reluctant to move below 3.44 pivot from this morning. FNCL 4.5's have lost a few more ticks and sit at 101-25. It's conceivable that an early pricer or two might reprice for the worse, but for now it seems that we're waiting on post-auction trading momentum.
11:31AM  :  ALERT: Reprices Possible. MBS Break 5-Week Range
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons just dropped from 101-28 to 101-24 in one swift move. This price decline has broken 5-week range support. Lenders who priced before 10AM eastern are likely to reprice for the worse.
11:21AM  :  The Great Margin Squeeze of 2011: Lumber Costs
RTRS-DR HORTON EXEC SAYS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS ON HIGHER LUMBER COSTS TO CUSTOMERS, NEGOTIATING WITH VENDORS
11:18AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
11:12AM  :  New York Fed purchases $5.790 billion in Treasury coupons
The purchase or sale of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a routine basis to offset other changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to maintain conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Jill Statz  :  "can you show where the same amount of money comes out of the acct each month for the rent?"
Aaron Meyer  :  "MH my understanding is they want 3 tradelines for each borrower"
Chip Harris  :  "did they get receipts for the rent?"
Matt Hodges  :  "Aaron: the FHA rule used to be minimum of 1 alt credit line and lenders often had an overlay of 3 lines. Is this specific lender demanding more than that?"
Victor Burek  :  "electrc"
Chip Harris  :  "cable"
Mike Drews  :  "phone?"
Chip Harris  :  "day care maybe"
Aaron Meyer  :  "Franklin"
Mike Drews  :  "which investor's taking that one?"
Aaron Meyer  :  "FHA question, give me some suggesstions for alt credit. I am using insurance and savings what else has been used? I have a true no score couple he pays cable & cell she pays insurance and saves money each month. I need 2 more. They pay rent with cash"
Victor Burek  :  "nexbank better"
Chip Harris  :  "5/3 repricing"
Brett Boyke  :  "Been away so did bbt chase us and gmac"
Chip Harris  :  "Stearns repricing finally"
Thomas Quann  :  "Did anyone realize yet that the irony in the LO Compensation date to start was April's Fools Day?"
Mike Drews  :  "Wells and FAMC are repricing"
Adam Quinones  :  " Some U.S. states face so much pressure to fund pensions for public employees that it could hurt their credit ratings, Moody's Investors Service said on Thursday. Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey and Rhode Island, along with Puerto Rico, have the largest debt-and-pension loads, Moody's found. * A majority of Californians back Governor Jerry Brown's plan to ask them to extend tax increases to help close a $25.4 billion state budget gap, pol"
B-C  :  "when do you think the US credit rating will get cut?"
Adam Quinones  :  "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/195492.aspx"
Adam Quinones  :  " 8:30 — The advance estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is expected to come in at +3.6%, according to economists polled by Reuters. Estimates range from +2.9% to +5.4%, indicating the final three months of 2010 were clearly stronger than the prior quarter’s +2.6% rate. Leading the way is retail sales, which may have jumped 4% in the quarter, and exports. “We believe that 2010 ended with a +3.8% bang,” said economists at BTMU, adding that full-year GDP likely grew 2.9%. “That’s really a paltry rebou"
Andy Pada  :  "What is tomorrow's econ data?"
Adam Quinones  :  "seems pretty orderly right now...havent seen much spread deviation today. "
Matthew Graham  :  "and illiquid MBS market "
Jason York  :  "I think I would be happier with less gains, but have it two days in a row"
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, that's exactly what the bond market wants you to feel TQ! It beat you down enough since Q4, you'll take anything you can get. (and I'm right behind ya)"
Matthew Graham  :  "IT'S A NARROW 2 DAY RANGE THAT MAKES IT LOOK LIKE A FACEMELTERRRRRRRRRR!"
Andrew Russell  :  "ITS A FACEMELTERRRRRRRRRRRRRR"
Jason Sheaffer  :  "portfolio lender - like a local bank who gives them in-house financing or a line of credit?"
Matthew Graham  :  "but it would certainly not hurt the chances of us staying receptive to bond-bullish news/events"
JTB  :  "Jason--Where are you located? A portfolio lender will do them"
Chip Harris  :  "Jason, some of the investors I have actually went out and got bank lines as they have been running the rentals through an LLC for a long time anyway."
Matthew Graham  :  "well, i'm not so sure we can draw connections between levels"
Matthew Graham  :  "it's going to take a healthy shot of something bond-bullish in order to coax yields out of their range, probably combined with an extended absence of anything outlandishly bullish for the broader economy"
Caroline Roy  :  "sell one"
Bernie  :  "BOA reprice avg is +31"
JTB  :  "If unsaid market were to correct say, oh I don't know, 10% what kind of effect what that have on UST yields? Get us around 3% yield, similar 10% lower?"
Jason Sheaffer  :  "this is going to be a stupid question but does anyone know how an investor can get money to buy more properties if they already have 10 houses financed? "
Matthew Graham  :  "lest I be labeled as a kook, but between you and I (no one else is watching right?) I do keep an eye out for yield curve behavior when stocks dance around their long term highs"
Victor Burek  :  "flagstar reprice"
Andy Pada  :  "bbt, usbank, amc all improve"
JTB  :  "MG--You think the major bit of guidance is the bond market awaiting equities? At this point, we've seen mixed data after mixed data...seems like that could be the market mover."
Chip Harris  :  "INterbank, UWM improving as well"
Christopher Max  :  "Wow this is nice!!!"
Chris Kopec  :  ""....U.S. Bill Rates Drop as Treasury Reduces Borrowing Plan for Fed ...." http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aU4f6ianjmHk"
Chris Kopec  :  "Sorry if disussed already, but is the Treasury announcement on limiting supply part of the boost?"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Not sure if you guys chatted about this earlier, but I had to chuckle when the CNBC talking heads were saying the big increase in the Jobless Claims were a result of catching up due to snow days 2 weeks ago but no one mentioned that last week when the number dropped."
Chip Harris  :  "STM repricing"
Dan Clifton  :  "another +.125 from PFG"
Chip Harris  :  "go 10 yr, go!"