MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
94-16 : -0-04
FNMA 4.0
98-10 : -0-04
FNMA 4.5
101-18 : -0-04
FNMA 5.0
104-10 : -0-04
GNMA 3.5
95-08 : -0-04
GNMA 4.0
99-20 : -0-05
GNMA 4.5
102-23 : -0-05
GNMA 5.0
105-16 : -0-04
FHLMC 3.5
94-10 : -0-04
FHLMC 4.0
98-06 : -0-05
FHLMC 4.5
101-15 : -0-04
FHLMC 5.0
104-05 : -0-05
Pricing as of 11:04 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
11:03AM  :  Despite Rising Stocks, Bonds Continue To Hold Range
Showing themselves to be content to march to the beat of their own drummer, bonds continue to hold relatively stable levels despite a stock market that has rallied somewhat off it's morning lows. 10yr yields are at 3.505 and FNCL 4.5's 101-17. No risks of reprices for the worse, and to reiterate previous notes, we could see reprices for the better (in small amounts) the longer this ground-holding/rallying persists in bonds. But keep an eye out today for volatility.
10:33AM  :  With Econ Data Done, Bonds Return To Morning Range
The initial mini-knee-jerk reaction to slightly stronger than expected econ data resulted in new lows for bonds. But they quickly stabilized and have since edged back into what had been the outer limits of their morning range. For treasuries, the outer limits are currently on the weak side around 3.513, but MBS are actually at their highs of the day. If these levels hold here or improve, reprices for the better (small ones) MIGHT be seen today. Let's not count chickens however... The point is that we're not rushing for the lock button right now. Whether or not that changes in the next five minutes is another matter. It's been a pretty choppy morning.
10:09AM  :  ALERT: Following 10am Data, MBS Fall To New Lows, But Stabilizing
FNCL 4.5's fell to 101-11 from 101-15 after a report showed that factory orders in the US were up 0.2% versus a consensus of -0.5% and the Institute for Supply/Management's index of business activity and their Purchasing Managers Index both beat expectations. The initial move weaker may prompt a jumpy lender to consider repricing for the worse, but the market is potentially already showing signs of stabilizing. Trading is brisk and things could still go either way.
10:04AM  :  DATA FLASH: Dec Factory Orders Rise 0.2%
+0.2 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.5 PCT) VS NOV +1.3 PCT (PREV +0.7 PCT) /// DURABLES ORDERS REVISED TO -2.3 PCT FROM -2.5 PCT /// NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT REVISED TO +1.9 PCT FROM +1.4 PCT /// EX-TRANSPORTATION +1.7 PCT VS NOV +3.3 PCT (PREV +2.4 PCT) /// EX-DEFENSE +0.2 PCT VS NOV +0.9 PCT /// NONDURABLES ORDERS +2.3 PCT VS NOV +2.5 PCT /// COMPUTERS/ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS ORDERS -0.2 VS NOV +6.7 PCT /// TOTAL MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES +1.1 PCT VS NOV +0.9 PCT /// INVENTORIES/SHIPMENTS RATIO 1.26 MONTHS' WORTH VS NOV 1.27 MONTHS
10:02AM  :  DATA FLASH: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and New Orders
PMI AT 59.4 IN JANUARY (CONSENSUS 57.0) VS 57.1 DEC /// BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 64.6 IN JANUARY (CONSENSUS 62.3) VS 62.9 IN DEC /// PRICES PAID INDEX 72.1 IN JANUARY VS 69.5 IN DECEMBER /// EMPLOYMENT INDEX 54.5 IN JANUARY VS 52.6 IN DECEMBER /// NEW ORDERS INDEX 64.9 IN JANUARY VS 61.4 IN DECEMBER
9:48AM  :  Bonds Weaken To Worst Levels Of The Day
In the past 30 minutes, bonds have weakened at their quickest pace of the day, pushing out toward the very last lines of defense for "the range." 10yr yields are up to 3.535 and FNCL 4.5's fell to 101-13. It bears repeating that it's not uncommon for the market to get aggressive with "lead-offs" before important econ data and/or events. That doesn't mean anything about how things will turn out tomorrow, but it does mean that NFP would have to confirm what we're seeing this morning, or it will simply look like a failed test to break out of the range.
9:27AM  :  Ahead Of Next Round Of Data, Bonds Trading Inside Am Extremes
At 3.511, 10yr yields are currently inside their morning extremes of 3.49 and 3.52. Similarly, FNCL 4.5's are at 101-16 with the lows at 101-14 and 101-18.
8:55AM  :  Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back Following Econ Data
Following the 830am data (Jobless Claims and Productivity/Costs), the bond market rallied slightly, with 10yr yields moving down to 3.49 from 3.52. FNCL 4.5's ticked up to 101-18 from 101-14. But moments later, and both markets are right back to their previous levels. More econ data is on the way at 10am.
8:32AM  :  DATA FLASH: Productivity And Costs
Q4 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY +2.6 PCT (CONS +2.0 PCT) VS Q3 +2.4 PCT (PREV +2.3 PCT) /// UNIT LABOR COSTS -0.6 PCT (CONS +0.3 PCT) VS Q3 -0.1 PCT (PREV -0.1 PCT) /// PRODUCTIVITY +3.6 PCT, LARGEST RISE SINCE 2002, VS 2009 +3.5 PCT /// UNIT LABOR COSTS -1.5 PCT VS 2009 -1.6 PCT
8:31AM  :  DATA FLASH: Jobless Claims
US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELLL TO 415,000 JAN 29 WEEK (CONSENSUS 420,000) FROM 457,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 454,000) /// US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 430,500 JAN 29 WEEK FROM 429,500 PRIOR WEEK (PREV 428,750) /// US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.925 MLN (CON. 3.92 MLN) JAN 22 WEEK FROM 4.009 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.99 MLN) /// US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL TO 3.1 PCT JAN 22 WEEK FROM 3.2 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.2 PCT)


Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Victor Burek  :  "flagstar is .6 worse than yesterday's open and .3 worse then the reprice"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "i would like to agree, but for whatever reason, even if the stock market sells off it wont guarantee that money flows into bonds....u can have a correction, and money rotates into specific sectors or other assets...."
B-C  :  "NOTHING BETTER THAN FLOATING A HIGH RATE WHEN THE MARKET TURNS AND YOU CAN LOCK WITH EXTRA YSP RIGHT BEFORE CLOSING"
B-C  :  "GUS, THIS IS SETTING UP FOR A LOVELY SELL OFF"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "tomorrows # will be distorted, and traders will perceive it however they like"
Matthew Graham  :  "Durables Revision applies to the reading that came in at -2.5%"
Matthew Graham  :  "ISM PMI - forecast at 57.0"
Matthew Graham  :  "ISM non-mfg bus activity forecast for 62.3"
Matthew Graham  :  "ISM and Factory Orders coming up at 10am (as well as Durable Goods Revision)"
Adam Quinones  :  "If you've been a long time MBS Commentary reader you know we have an ax to grind on labor productivity and how it impacts hiring trends. Many economists say a work force can only be so productive before it runs out of energy and firms are forced to hire more workers to keep up with demand. Humans are only capable of producing so much output before they get tired and need a break. Robots on the other hand do not need rest. And robots don't have health insurance premiums to pay or social security"
Adam Quinones  :  "i cant wait to see how banks play it when funding costs start to rise...."
Adam Quinones  :  "it starts in the front end of the curve and leaks out to the long end"
Adam Quinones  :  "4-6 months out the biggest risk is the shape of the yield curve...in terms of snowballing."
Adam Quinones  :  "any negativity would force short covering and help fuel a snowball rally"
Adam Quinones  :  "would be nice to stay in this area into NFP tomorrow"
Adam Quinones  :  "usually takes about a week after a major selloff like the one we saw last Friday Andy...so we're due"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "a correction is on the horizon....its a matter of when"
Andy Pada  :  "I sort of feel an equity sell off today"
Adam Quinones  :  "sounds like we still have the same problems more than a year later. High productivity. Seasonal hiring. Unskilled labor collecting unemployment benefits."
Adam Quinones  :  ""With that in mind, if productivity remains at these high levels and demand (output) does not increase , businesses will have less incentive to hire new labor. Given the uncertain economic outlook, we should expect to continue to see employers offering temporary job opportunities as seasonal influences warrant. From a positive perspective, the upward revision to unit labor costs and still extremely efficient read on productivity, while a function of less output, does support the notion that th"
Adam Quinones  :  "we have been very focused on productivity in the work force. we wrote this in December of 2009. WAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE."
Adam Quinones  :  "as my dad reminds me on a daily basis....grin and bear it son"
Adam Quinones  :  "anger is to be expected from this bond market behavior. this industry has been through the ringer over and over again. we all have an uncomfortable feeling in the pit of our stomach about the future......rationalizing only makes it worse"
Matthew Graham  :  "Here's the final word: drawing any conclusions about what the market is or isn't doing based on a bit of day-before-nfp volatility and/or fairly inconsequential econ data is grounds for a straightjacket"
Matthew Graham  :  "Oliver, you're killin' me!"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "i am beginning to believe that this data means nothing. Rates are going to go up no matter what happens. QE2 was the kiss of death for us."
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "spread is back over 280 on the 2 vs 10"