MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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FNMA 3.5
94-12 : +0-07
FNMA 4.0
98-15 : +0-06
FNMA 4.5
101-25 : +0-04
FNMA 5.0
104-19 : +0-04
GNMA 3.5
95-06 : +0-07
GNMA 4.0
99-29 : +0-03
GNMA 4.5
103-02 : +0-02
GNMA 5.0
106-00 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
94-06 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.0
98-10 : +0-06
FHLMC 4.5
101-21 : +0-03
FHLMC 5.0
104-16 : +0-03
Pricing as of 4:01 PM EST
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
3:50PM  :  Looking Ahead To Next Week. It's NFP Time Again!
Next week kicks off Monday with Personal Incomes and Outlays at 830am. There's also Fed-Speak from Dudley and Rosengren 830am and 845am respectively. Chicago PMI comes in at 945am, followed by Pending Home sales at 10am. It's also the 28th, and thus the last day of the month, which can add some support to the bond market with month-end index buying. The rest of the week includes the following notable economic data and Fed speakers: Bernanke, ISM manufacturing and Construction Spending on Tuesday. ADP employment, Beige Book, Fed's Lockhart and more Bernanke on Wednesday, Jobles Claims, Productivity/Costs, Auction announcements, ISM Non-Manufacturing and Kocherlakota on Thursday, and Finally, the grand-daddy of em all, NFP at 830am on Friday with Factory Orders in tow at 10am.
3:38PM  :  MBS Going Out At The Highs Of The Day
With an hour and a half left of MBS trading, FNCL 4.5's are at their highs of the day, currently 101-27. 10yr treasuries are near their best levels as well at 3.42. Stocks have stagnated with the S&P continuing to refuse a break above 1320, currently at 1318.24. Any remaining lenders still on morning rate sheets are more and more likely to reprice for the better as the day winds down, although lenders pricing after 11:15 eastern may not be on this bandwagon.
2:34PM  :  Bonds On Track For A Bullish Close
Treasuries will get their official daily mark at 3pm for long term charts, and while it won't have technically broken any milestone, it does do one thing for us: it's another day without a reversal of what seems to be the current prevailing sentiment: longer term trends may be shifting for bonds. There is a lot left to be proven in days and weeks ahead, but 3.424 in 10yr notes is currently on the cusp of breaking back into the previous bullish trend from December. FNCL 4.5 MBS are in their own world this afternoon and apparently have not been told there are prices outside 101-25 and 101-27 as they've held that range since shortly after 11am. Volume is nil, and volatility close to nil. Reprices for the better continue to be a possibility.
1:40PM  :  MBS Maintain Their Range As Benchmarks Find Support And Stocks Stall
After hitting 3.44, 10yr notes made a noticeable support bounce lower to 3.43. Meanwhile FNCL 4.5's ticked up from 101-26 to 101-27, maintaining their tight range and increasing possibilities for reprices for the better from lenders who have not yet repriced today. Stocks had been pushing higher and higher, already at the highs of the day, but the S&P looks to have second thoughts about breaking through 1320. Volume is light. Cruise control into the weekend until further notice.
1:16PM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
12:40PM  :  MBS Rally Finds Resistance, Holding Gains Despite Stock Rebound.
Just before 11:30am, FNCL 4.5's hit their best levels in nearly a month at 101-27 and have held in a tight range between there and 101-25 since. 10yr notes experienced a similarly strong rally, finally meeting resistance at 3.418. They're currently at 3.427. Stocks initially fell during this time, but have since rebounded in line with previous levels at 1317. There's little by the way of data left to drive trading today, and volume was low, even at resistance points. Any ongoing stability in MBS prices near these levels should hearken additional reprices for the better from lenders who haven't released them yet.
11:44AM  :  Loan Pricing Update: Flat
Loan pricing is basically unchanged today. On average, C30 rebate is less than one basis point worse. Rate sheets influential MBS prices have however improved since the five major lenders published. If production MBS coupon prices continue to improve, we may see reprices for the better. 4.875% is still "Best Execution" and likely will be until the FNCL 4.0 crosses into the 101-00 price handle. Consider that in your lock/float decision making process.
11:38AM  :  ALERT: MBS At New Highs, Reprice Potential Increasing
FNCL 4.5's have made a bee-line for fresh highs at 101-26. 10yr notes ate at their best levels of the day at 3.427. Reprices for the better are an increasing possibility and the "early crowd" lenders should be coming across soon.
11:18AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
11:01AM  :  Sideways Slide Gives Way To MBS Gains. Reprices Possible
For lenders who are already out with rate sheets today, reprices for the better are a possibility on recent MBS gains to 101-24 in 4.5's. But in most cases, it's still a bit early for that, and some lenders may need further gains before repricing though. Benchmark 10's are currently doing well with respect to their pivot point at 3.45, right now at 3.442.

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Chris Kopec  :  ".....if NFP fails for the 4th time, and the revolution contagion shows signs of spreading, the topic changes to oil crunch / double dip."
Chris Kopec  :  "I can't think of a big swing week than next week. If NFP breaks 200k, and the situation in the Middle East dies down, we could hit 3.80."
Frank Ceizyk  :  "if you price something too close to the "cliff" you'll potentially cost them out of pocket--we can keep from getting too close by helping them understand the importance of working with an LO that watches this stuff--which will likely be a very small percentage of LOs after 4/1"
Steven Bote  :  "The YSP can't be used to comp the LO, but it can be used to cover all other fees non-LO, when charging the borrower up front."
Frank Ceizyk  :  "knowing best execution rate with your lenders will be essential to pricing a no cost/low cost loan--not impossible--but will take an MBS educated LO to do it well"
Adam Quinones  :  "http://www.mbaa.org/Advocacy/MortgageActionAlliance"
Jason Wilborn  :  "if we had good representation like Realtors, we wouldnt be taking the blame and getting hit with all the regulation"
Adam Quinones  :  "too harsh? I think not...."
Adam Quinones  :  "so we tread water and housing stagnates in a pool of its own filth in the meantime...."
Adam Quinones  :  "right now there are too many different lobbies who just cant get it done without a unified message"
Adam Quinones  :  "so youre saying you deserve continuing ed credit for using MBSonMND?"
Jim White  :  "I couldn't pay for a 6 month class and get an education like I get here!"
Adam Quinones  :  "but you prob will not be able to offer your client a 4.75 quote without points until 4.0s trade in size "
Adam Quinones  :  "the upside potential here is rebate improvements"
Adam Quinones  :  "we're gonna be stuck at 4.875 for awhile."
Adam Quinones  :  "remember this...."
Gus Floropoulos  :  "chart looks like 4.5's gonna make a push higher"
Chris Kopec  :  "The 5 day chart is looking handsome."
Chris Kopec  :  "I want to see 4.5 at 102.00 this afternoon."
Jim White  :  "pf .125"
Steven Bote  :  "Wow, you guys really thought of everything."
Gus Floropoulos  :  "if u move the curser over the name of the member it gives u a time stamp"
Steven Bote  :  "Is there an option for timestamping on the live discussion?"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "you guys are always spot on"
Matthew Graham  :  "dang... good timing on that reprice alert I guess"
Oliver S. Orlicki  :  "FAMC reprice"
John Klarin  :  "good to see some green on a friday for a change."
Adam Quinones  :  "that is one of the reasons why month end is a supportive time for MBS valuations (spreads)"
Adam Quinones  :  "yep. bc they will need to replenish their holdings "
Andy Pada  :  "so if prepay speeds are high, we should see some buying from real $$?"
Adam Quinones  :  "which are more speculative in nature"
Matthew Graham  :  "contrast that with "fast money" andy, hedge fund types"
Adam Quinones  :  "folks who are managing cash flow liabilities vs. cash flow assets"
Adam Quinones  :  "banks, loan servicers, pension funds, insurance companies."
Andy Pada  :  "AQ, who constites real $$; sorry if this is a simple question."
Adam Quinones  :  "eh. real$ investing is driven more by math. they hedge when needed. They seem well hedged right now with cheapest to deliver securities"
John Rodgers  :  "Everyone is waiting for a big player to put a "toe" in"
John Rodgers  :  "that is what I figured. From what I have been told, a lot of real$ players got creamed in Q4 in the 4.0's and that is what is keeping them out of that market."
Adam Quinones  :  "real$ hesitant "
Adam Quinones  :  "paper trading mostly JR"
John Rodgers  :  "is there any money coming into the 4.0's?"