MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
Open MBSonMND Dashboard | ||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Pricing as of 11:00 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
10:30AM :
Home buyers try to beat "jumbo" loans squeeze
(Reuters) - Beginning on October 1, the government will dial back on the size of mortgages it guarantees in high-cost areas like San Francisco, New York and Washington. Anybody who wants a government-backed mortgage for a $1-million home after October 1 may have to come up with a $370,000 downpayment instead of $270,000, says Rob Chrisman, an independent mortgage banking consultant from San Rafael, California.
The deadline will mean most to upper-middle-class buyers and sellers in costly real estate markets where $1 million buys a nice house, but not a mansion.
To be sure, that part of the market is picking up. Real estate agents operating in tonier neighborhoods are reporting brisker business this spring than in recent years.
Sotheby's, which specializes in luxury homes, reports sales making double-digit gains for the first quarter of this year over last year. The National Association of Realtors reported that the sale of homes over $1 million were up 5.1 percent in March over the same month last year.
"We are seeing a normal recovery," said Jed Smith, managing director of quantitative research. "I'm sure somebody will accelerate their activity (because of the expected drop in government-backed loan limits), but I doubt you'll see a lot of acceleration because of that."
(Reporting by Linda Stern; Editing by Richard Satran)
Follow the link for full article:
10:07AM :
MBS, TSY's Improve After Data, but Still Inside Highs
Following the release of The Philly Fed index, MBS moved to their highs of the day at 102-05, but are already back down to pre-data levels at 102-03. Treasuries also rallied on the economically unfriendly data but remained inside their best levels of the day from earlier this morning.
10:01AM :
DATA FLASH: Philly Fed 18.5 vs 37.0 Consensus
* PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS APRIL 18.5 VS MARCH 43.4 * PHILADELPHIA FED NEW ORDERS INDEX APRIL 18.8 VS MARCH 40.3 * PHILADELPHIA FED PRICES PAID INDEX APRIL 57.1 VS MARCH 63.8 * PHILADELPHIA FED EMPLOYMENT INDEX APRIL 12.3 VS MARCH 18.2 * PHILADELPHIA FED SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS APRIL 33.6 VS MARCH 63.0 * PHILADELPHIA FED SIX-MONTH CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OUTLOOK APRIL 20.0 VS MARCH 34.5
9:05AM :
MBS Marginally Weaker Following Claims
While the initial moves were positive for both Treasuries and MBS, minutes after the 830am Jobless Claims release, both have weakened. FNCL 4.5's made it as high as 102-05 but have fallen to 102-02, 2 ticks down on the day. 10yr notes rose from 3.368 to 3.393. Although this is 1.5 bps lower on the day, we'd prefer to see 3.40 hold as support heading into next week, but are wary of FOMC and auction supply creating concessionary pressures. Current MBS losses are not enough that we'd expect reprices for the worse. In that regard, yesterday's "danger level" remains the same: 102-00, with more danger the lower we go from there.
8:55AM :
ALERT:
IMPORTANT Service Notice
We've implemented some changes to our system in prepartion for the release of our new MBSonMND Dashboard. These changes have caused a few issues this morning including an incorrect pricing notification that some of you received around 8:30 AM. This PRICING WAS INCORRECT. We apologize for any bumps in the road this AM and ask that you please contact support@mortgagenewsdaily.com if you come across anything that needs our attention. Thank You!
8:36AM :
BOND MARKET CLOSES AT 2PM TODAY
SIFMA HAS RECOMMENDED A 2PM CLOSE FOR THE BOND MARKET TODAY IN OBSERVANCE OF TOMORROW'S GOOD FRIDAY HOLIDAY. All recommended market closes are recommendations only; each SIFMA member firm will decide for itself whether its fixed-income departments remain open for trading. All SIFMA recommendations are subject to change due to market conditions. All SIFMA holiday recommendations apply to the trading of U.S. dollar-denominated government securities, mortgage- and asset-backed securities, over-the-counter investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, municipal bonds and secondary money market trading in bankers’ acceptances, commercial paper and Yankee and Euro certificates of deposit. Previously scheduled SIFMA early close recommendations do not affect the closing time for settlements.
8:34AM :
DATA FLASH: Jobless Claims Remain Over 400,000
RTRS 08:30 - US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 403,000 APRIL 16 WEEK (CONSENSUS 392,000) FROM 416,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 412,000). RTRS 08:30 - US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 399,000 APRIL 16 WEEK FROM 396,750 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 395,750) . RTRS 08:30 - US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.695 MLN (CON. 3.670 MLN) APRIL 9 WEEK FROM 3.702 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.680 MLN). RTRS 08:30 - US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.9 PCT APRIL 9 WEEK (PREV 2.9 PCT)
8:14AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
UPDATED AT 11:35...
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
Adam Quinones : "GMAC Bank's wholesale group announced Expanded Approval Levels for the DU Refi Plus Fixed Rate product. "All levels of Expanded Approval decisions (EAI, EAII and EAIII) can go to 105% LTV," several without MI. The lender also announced its "Super Jumbo Products will now permit Second Homes: minimum FICO score of 740, maximum loan amount of $1,000,000, maximum LTV/CLTV of 65%, maximum DTI of 35%, purchase and R&T only - no cash out, and for one unit properties." Check the bulletin for appraisal "
Brett Boyke : "WF repricing"
Matthew Graham : "draw an imaginary line leading up from 3.35, connects several recent lows"
Matthew Graham : "easy to see on your 5 day treasury chart"
Matthew Graham : "the troublesome part for me is that the post-philly fed rally in 10's hit resistance perfectly, on the line leading back up from the broader rally of the last 2 weeks."
Matthew Graham : "If you guys pull up 5 day charts on either MBS or TSY's, kind of looks like we're making triangles that would be resolving themselves by FOMC next week"
Matthew Graham : "looks like bond markets are keeping the door open for a consolidating range into the extended weekend"
Adam Quinones : "Youre right though Andy...i think the post-FOMC press conference holds the most potential for fireworks. BUT....based on Ben's previous performances under pressure I am confident he will rise to the occasion as he is operating at a much higher level of understanding than the rest of us."
Victor Burek : "nose dive"
Victor Burek : "philly fed horrible"
Andrew Horowitz : "nose dive for the philly fed"
Adam Quinones : "i might ask him a question that sets him up for weakness in the future like...How long do energy and food prices need to stay high before inflation is not "Transitory" anymore? That way in 6-months when it's not getting any better...I HAVE AMMO."
Adam Quinones : "good call Andy...id say you would catch him off-guard on that one but the media wouldnt care bc they dont care about LO Comp!"
Adam Quinones : "what would you ask him Andy?"
Andrew Horowitz : "difference between senators and congressman and the news media is he can duck a question from congress, news media will persist if he tries that"
Adam Quinones : "no softballs there."
Adam Quinones : "Andy what about Congressman and Senators?"
Andrew Horowitz : "press conferences are different than speeches with Q & A softballs from economists"
Adam Quinones : "he is smarter than everyone in the room so i find it hard to believe we'll get a tapebomb from that....im more interested in the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections...which will be updated and shared in the next FOMC Minutes."
Andrew Horowitz : "interesting though to see if someone tries to trip him up"
Adam Quinones : "Ben is pretty tough nut to crack."
Andrew Horowitz : "i'm more intrigued by the press conference after the meeting"
Adam Quinones : "s/be better but FOMC meeting will be focus Ira."
Adam Quinones : "New Home Sales Ira..."
Ira Selwin : "AQ- Is there any news coming on Monday that may have an impact either way?"
Adam Quinones : "short covering = higher prices all things constant."
Adam Quinones : "position squaring should favor better prices as there are generally still more shorts than longs open."
Adam Quinones : "bond market is closed tomorrow."
Ken Crute : "bond market closed early today, tomorrow too? do we see sell off around 1 today? "