MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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4:00PM :
Quadruple Witching And Light Econ Data End The Week
Quadruple Witching is the market's term for one of 4 days a year where stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire. Basically, it's generally thought that this can create a higher than normal amount of volatility, but historically, that assertion has been compounded by it's usual occurrence on Fridays with limited or no data. Relative to the preceding three days this week, tomorrow is certainly light on data with only Consumer Sentiment and Leading Indicators reporting at 9:55 and 10am respectively. There will also be a weekly ECRI report, but we'd be shocked if it moved markets. There's no Fed Speak tomorrow, but an FOMC announcement coming up next week as well as Bernanke's quarterly press conference to consider as we stare at the the year's best levels in the bond market, and a stock market that continues to teeter on melt-down.
3:48PM :
Lenders Sue Builders Over Bankrupt Development
(Reuters) - Three of the nation's largest home builders, led by KBHome, will pay well over $200 million to settle legal claims by lenders related to Inspirada, a large bankrupt housing community near Las Vegas.
KBHome will pay lenders between $214 million and $225 million, and said it expects to incur a total obligation related to the project of $216 million to $240 million.
Beazer Homes USA Inc said it will pay between $15.7 million and $17 million, while Toll Brothers Inc said it agreed to a "cash settlement."
The settlements require bankruptcy court approval, and were disclosed in separate U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
Inspirada is a nearly 2,000-acre master planned community in Henderson, Nevada. The project was once expected to have about 11,500 homes, but stalled as the Las Vegas housing market collapsed.
Las Vegas has the nation's highest foreclosure rate among metropolitan areas with populations of at least 200,000, RealtyTrac Inc said on Thursday.
Home prices in the area are down roughly 58 percent in the last five years, the steepest drop among 20 U.S. markets tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
Inspirada had been developed by South Edge LLC, a venture that includes several builders. KBHome has a 48.5 percent stake in South Edge, and Toll has a 10.5 percent stake.
KBHome said some other entities in the venture had not settled, including Meritage Homes Corp .
A lender group that included JPMorgan Chase & Co , Wells Fargo & Co and Credit Agricole pushed South Edge into an involuntary bankruptcy in December following a loan default.
1:30PM :
Reuters Poll: Housing to Remain in Doldrums
(Reuters) - The beaten-down housing market is expected to sink further this year and prices will virtually flatline in 2012, a Reuters poll predicted. While the economy has slowly been recovering from the worst recession since the Great Depression, a housing market rebound has remained elusive despite multi-billion dollar federal programs and record low interest rates. Home prices -- as measured by Standard & Poor's 20-City Composite Home Price Index -- will fall 5.0 percent in 2011 as a whole before finding a floor and rising just 0.5 percent in 2012, according to the median forecast of the 21 economists who provided price forecasts in the Reuters poll. The findings were bleaker than those of the previous Reuters housing poll in March, which saw prices falling 2.3 percent this year and rising 1.2 percent in 2012. A rise in "distressed" home sales at depressed prices has helped clear a backlog of homes for sale on the market, but a glut of homes for sale still remains. The rampant pace of foreclosures hitting the market has abated but is still grim with more than a quarter of homeowners owing more on their mortgage than what their homes are worth. This negative equity not only prevents homeowners from selling but these borrowers tend to be more prone to defaults and foreclosures.
"It is hard to see the housing market doing better until the massive headwind of foreclosures is removed and that will likely take a couple of years," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Well Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. By the third quarter of 2011, the pace of U.S. existing home sales will only edge up to a 5.10 million annualized rate compared with 5.05 million in April, according to the median forecast of 22 economists who gave an outlook for sales. Forecasts for changes in the CaseShiller price index next year ranged widely, from a rise of 5 percent to a fall of 6 percent, highlighting the differences among economists on whether the housing slump has played out.
12:59PM :
Bonds Holding Up Well as Stocks Search for Savior
Wondering why bonds are still positive on the day even as equities rally? While stocks seem strong based on day over day gains, they're really just teetering on a major technical collapse. Stocks are clinging for life here, entrenched weakness is obvious and bond traders aren't being fooled by what seems like a short-term stabilization. That is why bonds are holding it together even though stocks are rallying. A closer look does indicate bond flows are skewed toward better selling on profit taking though. So while the speculative and technical bias is still bullish, traders aren't leaving profits on the table for long without a confirmed downturn in stocks. Lots of anxious market watchers out there. The potential for intraday directional price volatility is high if equities manage to find new life.
11:20AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Adam Quinones : "but only bc Up in Coupon is getting destroyed. I would say "down in coupon" performed the least worst today. "
Adam Quinones : "yes. the MBS curve flattened a bunch todya...."
Adam Quinones : "stocks just bounced. MBS weak all day. Treasuries providing price lift. Not much buyer interest. "Bid Wanted""
Tom Bartlett : "MBS getting whacked right now. what gives?"
Adam Quinones : "FYI: TBA MBS trading volume close to average today. Not a very busy day overall. This is somewhat obvious in the fact that MBS got its butt kicked by Treasuries today. The "Risk Off" sentiment is really not helping draw in demand as the 2nd quarter comes to a close."
Adam Quinones : "AARP is not gonna be happy about this!"
Adam Quinones : "RTRS - WELLS FARGO HOME MORTGAGE-AS OF 2010,FUNDED VOLUME OF REVERSE MORTGAGE BUSINESS WAS ABOUT 2.2 PCT OF RETAIL MORTGAGE VOLUME "
Adam Quinones : "RTRS - WELLS FARGO HOME MORTGAGE - CO'S 1,000 REVERSE MORTGAGE EMPLOYEES TO BE GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES TO APPLY FOR OTHER OPEN POSITIONS "
Adam Quinones : "RTRS - WELLS FARGO - DECISION BASED ON CURRENT UNPREDICTABLE HOME VALUES ALONG WITH RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REVERSE MORTGAGES"
Adam Quinones : "RTRS- WELLS FARGO HOME MORTGAGE - NEW APPLICATIONS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED AFTER JUNE 30, 2011 "
Adam Quinones : "RTRS- WELLS FARGO HOME MORTGAGE DISCONTINUES HOME EQUITY CONVERSION MORTGAGES "
Adam Quinones : "3-02 is the ledge on FN45/4 swap right MG?"
Adam Quinones : "it is an equivalency ratio."
Adam Quinones : "so for example at a 65% hedge ratio...if we bought $1,000,000 Fannie Mae 4.0s, we would offset the embedded risk by selling $650,000 worth in 10yr notes. "
Adam Quinones : "that allows us to compare the relative performance of MBS vs. a benchmark hedge"
Adam Quinones : "65% is a "hedge ratio". It is how we match the duration of the FN 4.0 vs. the UST10YR note. It's how we match up expected cash-flows. "
Matthew Graham : "translation: the difference in price between 4.0s and 4.5's is smaller than it was. Indicating a preferential shift away from higher coupons towards lower coupons."
Matthew Graham : "4.0/4.5 spread 35bps tighter since Tuesday afternoon though. so at least some of the to-be-expected down in coupon movement is coming through"
Adam Quinones : "good question...."
Victor Burek : "why do you use the 65% ratio?"
Adam Quinones : "we'd say FN 4.0s are 6-7 ticks wider"
Adam Quinones : "Compare FN 4.0 prices to UST10YR at 65% ratio....so +14 vs +4 = 10tick difference. At 65% the Fannie 4.0 is 6.5 ticks behind 10s"
Adam Quinones : "getting their butt kicked Oliver"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "mbs are lagging today"
Adam Quinones : "still...flows are skewed toward better selling on profit taking. So while the speculative and technical bias is still bullish...traders aren't leaving profits on the table for long without another downturn in stocks. "
Adam Quinones : "it illustrates entrenched weakness in equities. bonds aren't being fooled. "
Adam Quinones : "although stocks are +0.59% now...the S&P is still teetering on a major technical breakdown. 1270 is the key level. The S&P is at 1273 and showing little desire to push higher"
Jeff Anderson : "What would cause the disconnect? Uncertainty where we go from here?"
Adam Quinones : "Congress won't like this headline...RTRS - FDIC'S BAIR SAYS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET RID OF TOO BIG TO FAIL PROBLEM, BUT NEW AUTHORITIES CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN OVER TIME "
Matthew Graham : "more 'bounce' materializing for 10's off the intraday pivot "