MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
10:17AM :
ECON: Home Vacancy Rate Eased in Q2
(Reuters) - The percentage of empty privately owned U.S. homes and rental units eased in the second quarter, a government report showed on Friday.
The homeowner vacancy rate slipped to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said.
Rental vacancies fell to 9.2 percent from 9.7 percent. (Reporting by Mark Felsenthal; Editing by James Dalgleish)
10:15AM :
ALERT:
Rally Gaining Steam Ahead of Obama Speech
In a few minutes, Obama will make a statement on the status of the debt ceiling negotiations. Ahead of that potentially market moving event, bond markets are about as strong as they've been in 2011 with 10yr yields at 2.856 (they've dipped slightly lower on a few brief occasions in the past, but lowest closing yield - 2.86+). MBS Still lag Treasuries into the rally, but each of them have ratcheted to better and better territory following each piece of economic data. Fannie 4.0 MBS are up half a point on the day at 101-09 currently. Rate sheets should be stronger this morning, obviously, but lenders are likely to remain conservative while volatility remains elevated.
9:58AM :
ECON: Consumer Sentiment Falls in July
(Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in July to its lowest point in more than two years, as anxieties over stagnant wages and rising unemployment deepened, a survey released on Friday showed.
Concerns about the U.S. debt crisis also loomed large, as lawmakers in Washington continue to wrangle over plans to raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. government runs out of money to pay its bills on Tuesday.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.7, down from 71.5 in June, the lowest reading since March, 2009. That is just below the preliminary July figure of 63.8 and the median forecast of 64.0 among economists polled by Reuters.
"While consumers may not fully understand the debate about the federal debt, they do understand the meaning of the oft repeated warnings of 'dire economic consequences,'" Director Richard Curtin said in a statement.
Confidence in government economic policies reached a new low under the Obama administration.
The survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 56.0, on par with economists' predictions but below June's 64.8. Curtin added that the expectations index is at levels consistent with recession, but has not been down long enough to signal one definitively.
The survey's barometer of current economic conditions was 75.8 in July, down from 82.0 in June, and below a forecast of 76.3.
Just one in ten consumers expected to earn more money in the year ahead and twice as many consumers reported hearing about new job losses compared with job gains in July.
"The absence of positive long term financial expectations has turned consumer resilience into consumer fragility at the first sign of adversity," Curtin said.
(Reporting by Alex Alper, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
9:52AM :
SNAPSHOT - What is Happening in the US Debt Crisis
(Reuters) - Here is what is happening on Friday as lawmakers scramble to close in on a deal for Congress to raise the U.S. government's $14.3 trillion borrowing limit by an Aug. 2 deadline and avoid a debt default:
* President Barack Obama is to make a statement on the debt limit situation in Congress at 10:20 a.m. EDT. (1420 GMT)
* After Republican House of Representatives leaders failed Thursday to muster sufficient support for Speaker John Boehner's proposal to raise the ceiling, they labored through Thursday night to rework the bill in hopes of winning over a few Republican holdouts. So far Democrats stand united against the Boehner plan. A House vote on the new plan could be scheduled for later Friday, at the earliest.
* House Republicans are set to meet behind closed doors at 10:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) to discuss the reworked Boehner plan.
* At least one House Republican holdout, Representative Trey Gowdy in a CNN television interview predicted the new Boehner plan will pass the House.
* A White House official says Obama remains opposed to any short-term debt limit hike as sought by House Republicans.
* The U.S. Treasury is preparing an emergency plan for how the government would function and pay its obligations if Congress fails to raise the government's borrowing authority. The plan could be released as early as Friday, officials say.
9:49AM :
ECON: Midwest Business Barometer Drops in July
Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew less than expected this month as the labor market weakened, a report showed on Friday.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer dropped to 58.8 in July. The reading was 61.1 in June, and economists had forecast a July reading of 60.
The employment component of the index sank to 51.5, from 58.7 in June. New orders also fell, to 59.4, from 61.2. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy. (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by James Dalgleish)
8:54AM :
ECON: Q2 Advance GDP Misses the Mark. Spending Flat
Reuters) - The economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose amid higher gasoline prices, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday.
Growth in gross domestic product -- a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders - rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said. First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.
Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter.
In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit.
Economists had expected the economy would show signs of perking up by now with Japan supply constraints easing and gasoline prices off their high, but data has disappointed. This and the sharp downward revisions to the prior quarters suggest a more troubling and fundamental slowdown might be underway.
8:47AM :
ECON: Q2 Employment Cost Rise Biggest in Almost 3 Years
(Reuters) - U.S. civilian employment costs surged a steeper-than-expected 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the biggest gain since September 2008, on a jump in benefits costs, Labor Department data showed on Friday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the Employment Cost Index to increase 0.5 percent in the three months ending in June, after a 0.6 percent rise in the prior quarter.
Benefits costs, which make up about 30 percent of compensation, grew 1.3 percent in the quarter, the biggest gain since June 2007. Wages and salaries expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter after increasing by the same amount in the first quarter.
Over 12 months, compensation costs rose 2.2 percent, the sharpest annual increase since December 2008. (Reporting by Mark Felsenthal, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
8:45AM :
US Treasury, Dealers to Discuss Market Conditions
(Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said it will meet with primary-market dealers in New York on Friday as part of regularly scheduled meetings ahead of next week's quarterly refunding announcement.
"These meetings typically give us an opportunity to hear the latest from those who buy U.S. Treasuries, and we expect them to be particularly useful as we enter a period where Congress has not yet acted to raise the debt ceiling," a Treasury official said.
(Reporting by Glenn Somerville)
8:43AM :
ALERT:
Treasuries Rally Overnight and on Data, MBS Reluctant, but Following
As we discussed yesterday, Treasuries continue to rally more and sell-off more than MBS depending on the flavor of the day. Today is a rally day, both due to overnight trading (Spain downgraded by Moody's, Boehner cancelled vote for his debt plan), as well as the morning's economic data. The data showed a much weaker than expected Advance GDP and employment costs rising at their fastest pace since 2008. While MBS (Fannie 4.0's) are up 7 ticks on the day at 101-00, 10yr notes are up 18 ticks in price, dropping yields to 2.89. Yields have been flagging sideways in a narrow range around 2.885 since falling from 2.91+ before the release of the data.
8:11AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- BULLARD - FED CAN'T BUY DEBT DIRECTLY FROM TREASURY, IF THERE WERE A CRISIS, FED COULD PROVIDE LIQUIDITY - CNBC "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - FAILURE TO RAISE DEBT CEILING WOULD HAVE UNPREDICTABLE CONSEQUENCES FOR U.S. ECONOMY, EXPECT DEAL AT END OF THE DAY - CNBC "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. HOUSE REPUBLICANS AIM TO VOTE ON REVISED DEBT LIMIT BILL ON FRIDAY - HOUSE RULES COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN DREIER "
Adam Quinones : "Friday, July 29, 2011 10:46:49 AM RTRS - NEW REPUBLICAN DEBT LIMIT PLAN TO CALL FOR SHORT-TERM EXTENSION WITH 2ND DEBT LIMIT INCREASE LINKED TO CONGRESS PASSING BALANCED BUDGET CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT - REPUBLICAN LAWMAKER"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- OBAMA WILL PREPARED TO WORK ALL WEEKEND WITH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TO GET A DEBT DEAL "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- OBAMA SAYS A LOSS OF U.S. TRIPLE-A CREDIT RATING WOULD CAUSE INTEREST RATES TO RISE, BE LIKE A HIGHER TAX ON ALL AMERICANS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS U.S. COULD LOSE ITS AAA CREDIT RATING BECAUSE OF POLITICS"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS WOULD BACK SOME KIND OF ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM TO CONTROL DEFICITS IF DONE IN SMART AND BALANCED WAY "
Matthew Graham : ""plenty of modifications we could make to these plans that would allow them both to pass and allow me to sign them into law""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS ANY SOLUTION TO AVOID U.S. DEFAULT MUST BE A COMPROMISE"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS BOEHNER DEBT PLAN FOR VOTE IN HOUSE DOES NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2009 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2009 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH 5-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK FINAL JULY 2.9 PCT VS PRELIMINARY JULY 2.8 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH 1-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK FINAL JULY 3.4 PCT VS PRELIMINARY JULY 3.4 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRSPRELIM JULY 55.8 Today 06:55 - THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH 12-MONTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INDEX FINAL JULY 55 VS PRELIMINARY JULY 52 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS INDEX FINAL JULY 56.0 (CONSENSUS 56.0) VS PRELIM JULY 55.8 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX FINAL JULY 75.8 (CONSENSUS 76.3) VS PRELIMINARY JULY 76.3 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- THOMSON REUTERS/U. OF MICH US CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JULY 63.7 (CONSENSUS 64.0) VS PRELIMINARY JULY 63.8 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT PRODUCTION INDEX 64.3 IN JULY VS 66.9 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - CHICAGO PMI EMPLOYMENT INDEX 51.5 IN JULY VS 58.7 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGEMENT PRICES PAID INDEX 71.7 IN JULY VS 70.5 IN JUNE"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- CHICAGO PURCHASING MGMT NEW ORDERS INDEX 59.4 IN JULY VS 61.2 IN JUNE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - SEN. REID CALLS ON SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER TO "SIT DOWN WITH ME" AND NEGOTIATE COMPROMISE DEBT LIMIT BILL "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US SEN REID SAYS "I MUST TAKE ACTION"; AIMS TO START ADVANCING SENATE COMPROMISE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER REID SAYS SENATE "CANNOT WAIT ANY LONGER" FOR REPUBLICAN HOUSE TO ACT ON DEBT LIMIT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- OBAMA TO DELIVER STATEMENT ON STATUS OF DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS AT 10:20 A.M. EDT (1420 GMT)-WHITE HOUSE "
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) STEVE BLITZ, DIRECTOR AND SENIOR ECONOMIST, ITG NEW YORK
"The economy is weak, and it's going to stay weak, and it's going to stay weak for a while because we are in the process of deleveraging and this is what deleveraging looks like. To get the economy moving forward the way it should requires a reform of the tax code that will lower rates and broaden the base and favor investment over consumption. Efforts to try and put Humpty Dumpty back together again to have the economy we ha"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES, ST. PETERSBURG, FL
"The face value is certainly not great. The second quarter disappointed, but the first-quarter downward revision is more disturbing. It advances the pangs of concern. The debt ceiling nonsense is not going to help us. We're already in an economy that is subpar."
"Glancing through it doesn't look like anything is really out of line with what people were expecting for the second quarter... Gasoline price increasing f"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters)TIM GHRISKEY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SOLARIS ASSET MANAGEMENT IN BEDFORD HILLS, NEW YORK:
"Everybody expected GDP to be weak for the second quarter, estimates had steadily come down, but this is a pretty shockingly low number. The revision to the first quarter is even more shocking."
"Clearly this is evidence of a mid-cycle slowdown. The only question now is do we see a pick up in the second half and so far the economic data to date doesn't suggest that."
"You might hav"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) CHRIS LOWE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK
"What is worrisome is that each month in the quarter was weaker than the month before. We are looking at another slow quarter in the third quarter but still positive so no recession....At this point growth is so close to zero and confidence is more important than it normally is and the distraction of the debt ceiling fight could make a big difference. A government shutdown would have a big impact as well.""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX +2.2 PCT OVER 12 MONTHS ENDED IN JUNE, LARGEST RISE SINCE +2.6 PCT IN DEC 2008 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q2 BENEFIT COSTS LARGEST RISE SINCE +1.3 PCT IN JUNE 2007 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX LARGEST RISE SINCE +0.7 PCT IN SEPT 2008"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX +0.7 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT) VS Q1 +0.6 PCT"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US 2010 PERSONAL SAVING RATE REVISED TO 5.3 PCT FROM 5.7 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US 2009 GDP REVISED TO -3.5 PCT FROM -2.6 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US 2010 GDP GROWTH REVISED TO +3.0 PCT FROM +2.9 PCT; CORE PCE PRICE INDEX REVISED TO +1.4 PCT (+1.3) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US Q2 BUSINESS INVESTMENT +6.3 PCT (Q1 +2.1 PCT), EQUIPMENT/SOFTWARE +5.7 PCT (Q1 +8.7 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US Q2 MARKET-BASED PCE PRICE INDEX +3.5 PCT (Q1 +4.0 PCT), CORE +2.4 PCT (Q1 +1.3 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US Q2 PCE PRICE INDEX +3.1 PCT (CONS +3.4 PCT), Q1 +3.9 PCT; CORE PCE +2.1 PCT (CONS +2.3 PCT), Q1 +1.6 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US ADVANCE Q2 GDP DEFLATOR +2.4 PCT (CONS +2.0 PCT), Q1 +2.7 PCT "
MMNJ : "we should fly"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US ADVANCE Q2 GDP +1.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.8 PCT), Q1 +0.4 PCT; FINAL SALES +1.1 PCT (CONS +1.8 PCT), Q1 0.0 PCT "
Victor Burek : "1.3 wow"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US TREASURY OFFICIAL SAYS MEETINGS "PARTICULARLY USEFUL" AS U.S. ENTERS A PERIOD WHERE CONGRESS HAS NOT YET RAISED THE DEBT CEILING "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US TREASURY OFFICIAL SAYS HOLDING REGULARLY SCHEDULED MEETINGS IN NEW YORK WITH MARKET PARTICIPANTS ON FRIDAY TO DISCUSS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AHEAD OF QUARTERLY REFUNDING NEXT WEEK "