MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:03 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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3:44PM :
Conclusion of EU Summit in Addition to Increased Domestic Econ Data
Tomorrow will host the lion's share of this week's domestic economic data after 3 previous days with only 1 report each and a Friday that's completely silent. Jobless Claims kicks things off at 830am as well as Fed Speak from Chuck Evans. At 10am, another econ report and another Fed Speaker, this time it's the Philly Fed Survey in a duet with "the Ben" himself, testifying in the Senate on financial reform. Speaking of financial reform, to say that this would be the center of discussion in the 2nd of a 2 day summit in Europe would be putting it lightly. Top officials will continue sorting out how best to deal with the situation in Greece, among other things, and unexpected headlines arising from the summit continue to be potential domestic market movers. We'll also get FHFA's home price index as well as Leading indicators at 10am, but the aforementioned items are the most likely candidates to move markets. For a complete look at forecasts and such, tune into the following link:
3:26PM :
Wells Fargo Hit with $85mln Mortgage Penalty
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that Wells Fargo & Co agreed to pay $85 million in a civil penalty and will compensate prime borrowers who were allegedly steered into more costly subprime loans. The Fed said the bank might have to pay an additional $1,000 to $20,000 to each borrower affected by the alleged faulty mortgage practices. The number of borrowers who may be compensated is estimated to be between 3,700 and possibly more than 10,000, according to the Fed.
1:40PM :
Markets Once Again Sideways Following AM Volatility
Stepping back from this morning's volatility for a slightly bigger-picture look at MBS and Treasuries, the sense of "SIDEWAYS" is once again overwhelming. Both markets are trading inside yesterdays's ranges (you may have heard us mention "inside days" in the past). But despite the fact that highs vs lows are less extreme than yesterday, and even without a strong continuation of the recent turn around in MBS, Fannie 4.0s at 100-27 are still fairly close to their highs of both today and yesterday. That's good to see considering 10yr notes are much weaker by comparison, relative to their 2 day range. In terms of day over day price change, MBS are down 2 ticks versus 10yr notes down 13 ticks. If we had to wager a guess, we'd probably still be more defensive against potential price losses than we would be hopeful for potential price gains.
11:56AM :
Complete 180 for MBS. Treasuries Back to Mid-Range
A few seconds after hitting new lows of the day on a fairly steep little sell-off, MBS prices turned around and put in an equally steep rally before leveling off in the middle of the day's range. Since then, they've added to those gains even further and are now in line with their best levels of the day, 100-28 in Fannie 4.0's. 10yr notes, however, are not at their best levels of the day, more like mid-range, currently 2.918 with the extremes lying at 2.94 and the high 2.89's. If someone forced us to mention the word "reprice" in the near future, we'd say we're no longer seeing a likelihood of reprices for the worse.
11:23AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Adam Quinones : "Reds are anti-GSE for most part"
Adam Quinones : "BO wants it but I wouldnt hold my breath. Won't make it through the House if you ask me."
Scott Valins : "what are the chances that the high loan limits get extended?"
Adam Quinones : "https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/mha/mharefi/pdf/refinancefaqs.pdf"
Adam Quinones : "Previously, to be eligible for Refi Plus (manual) or DU Refi Plus, the existing loan must have been owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae before March 1, 2009. In March of 2011, the March 1, 2009 date was extended to June 1, 2009."
Kent Mikkola #353976 : "loan had to be delivered to Fannie/Freddie prior to March 1, 2009"
Brent Borcherding : "What is the initial funding date, cutoff, for a loan to be HARP eligible?"
Adam Quinones : "Another EU Summit, Another Greek Bailout? (Reuters) - Confusion over competing policy proposals reigned among officials and bankers on Monday as Europe struggled to put together a second bailout of Greece and prevent the region's debt crisis from spreading. French government spokeswoman Valerie Pecresse said she believed a summit of the euro zone's 17 national leaders scheduled for Thursday in Brussels would agree on a rescue of Greece, supplementing a 110 billion euro ($154 billion) bailout lau"
Adam Quinones : "FYI TOMORROW..."
Ken Crute : "interesting read below, I had 3 contracts die in June myself, vairious reasons, from inspection, to buyer remorse to seller loosing home to f/c days before closing "
Ken Crute : "http://www.cnbc.com/id/43824730"
Matthew Graham : "Try 5/11 to 7/19. connect a straight line between the two. you'll have at least something to look at there. But you make my point for me, which is that the "resistance to further gains" has much more developed technicals than "support against losses""
Brent Borcherding : "MG--I don't see the increasing low prices in MBS. Over what time period are you looking?"
Matthew Graham : "but the best analysis may be this: it doesn't really matter... If the downwardly sloped trendline is broken, we'd over course then watch 101-00 itself for breakage, all the while not caring too much about MBS-specific technical analysis in favor of the significantly more pertinent technical analysis of risk-free benchmarks"
Matthew Graham : "I think the best way to make an argument for 101-00 would be to say that's the nominal level of resistance, and has simply been "tweaked" into the downward slope owing to generally wider spreads over the same time frame."
Gus Floropoulos : "u can make an argument both ways...kinda like Vic"
Matthew Graham : "no, actually if you zoom out to a longer term time frame on your charts, you can see that the ceiling is not horizontal for MBS and instead has been adhering quite well to a steadily declining trend beginning most recently with the 101-05-ish highs from early July. But you're also welcome to go all the way back to early June and pick up the exact same trendline at 101-18."
Steve Chizmadia : "101 seems to be a little stubborn huh?"
Adam Quinones : "UIC liquidity = gone "
Adam Quinones : "-28+ vs. -10"
Adam Quinones : "112-06+"
Adam Quinones : "one mkt at 111-20 another at 112-0+"
Steven Stone : "whats it down Adam?"
Adam Quinones : "haha. anyone w/TWEB. Check out 6.5s. Having a rough day!"
Adam Quinones : "now we do more "wait and see""
Adam Quinones : "now he is cool with 8/2"
Adam Quinones : "was 7/22"
Cut Capn Crunch : "I'm thinking the deal gets done this week....at least in principle.....they can jack up the debt ceiling first, and then work on the details thereafter."
Brent Borcherding : "Anyone recall Obama's date, that he wanted a deal by?"
Adam Quinones : "August 2nd?"
Brent Borcherding : "AQ--Your thoughts on when a deal gets done? "
Adam Quinones : "another poor jobs report = lower mortgage rates and more talk of QE3 (with Jackson Hole just around the corner)."
Adam Quinones : "debt deal getting done = flatter yield curve"
Adam Quinones : "sure Jude. EU debt crisis is long from over (thinking 12/2012) and econ reality is "long road ahead" plus banks still have "shadow inventory" on their books to deal with."
JudeB : "AQ, so if it passes, yields could go lower??"
Adam Quinones : "the longer it goes without passing the higher yields rise (bc more debts will go unpaid)"
Brent Borcherding : "AD--If the impossible happens, US defaulting on debt, than anything else becomes possible...complete unknown."
Brent Borcherding : ""Zillow IPO doubles in early trading" What does Zillow do exactly, other than give bad representation of home values?"
Adam Dahill : "AQ- YSo in your opinion if for some reason debt ceiling doesn't pass, what do you think we will see yeilds rise to? "