The weakness in MBS and Treasuries over the past few days has been unpleasant, but at least the charts are suggesting it's been a calculated move. Notice in the MBS chart below that a majority of "bounces" (peaks and valleys) are occuring along the same two lines over the past two days. These "internal trendlines" have governed a linear downtrend over the past two days. Ebbs and flows... Risk-on, risk-off. No violation of broader trends yets, so with half an hour left before the official bond market close, it looks like NFP will decide if MBS can overcome Cobra Kai, err... I mean, "the downtrend."
Long term trend in Benchmarks is even more intact than in MBS:
In fact, based on the charts, the risk is to be overly assumptive about impending stock market weakness because that's really the only long term trend that looks to be in jeopardy.
If stocks don't get much higher than current levels in the next 1.5 hours, it would reinforce the risk that the downtrend would continue with a lousy NFP tomorrow (that's a good risk for MBS!).