MBS Live: MBS RECAP
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FNMA 3.5
101-03 : -0-15
FNMA 4.0
103-11 : -0-12
FNMA 4.5
105-08 : -0-05
FNMA 5.0
107-07 : -0-02
GNMA 3.5
103-01 : -0-16
GNMA 4.0
106-01 : -0-13
GNMA 4.5
108-02 : -0-09
GNMA 5.0
109-17 : -0-04
FHLMC 3.5
100-30 : -0-15
FHLMC 4.0
103-05 : -0-10
FHLMC 4.5
104-30 : -0-06
FHLMC 5.0
106-29 : -0-02
Pricing as of 4:01 PM EST
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
3:59PM  :  Anticlimactic Market Response to EU Summit. Is That a Hint?
Two ways to approach today's session... With Fannie 3.5's at 101-05 and 10yr yields at 2.20, we're about mid-range vs yesterday's big moves--not bad, but fairly equivocal. No major swings either... So we're left wondering whether or not markets merely didn't get enough info out of the EU today (although maybe it's en route after hours), or if the domestic economic picture is perhaps a bigger piece of the pie than the recent Euro Zone focus would have us believe.

While we can't much speak to the former right now, we can at least take a look at impending events concerning the latter. To wit, we'll get Q2 Final GDP tomorrow, and of course Jobless Claims. Those hit at 830am and Pending Home Sales plays a supporting role at 10am. Then there's the last of the week's TSY auctions in the form of the 7yr Note at 1pm. For more details on the day's economic events, see the following:
3:53PM  :  Euro Zone Seeks 100 bln Euro Cut in Private Sector Greek Debt
(Reuters) - Euro zone leaders want private sector creditors to accept a writedown of more than 50 percent on their holdings of Greek government debt, a senior EU source said on Wednesday.

Such a 'haircut' would aim to reduce Greece's total outstanding private sector debt by around 100 billion euros, the source said.

In an effort to push through the deal, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are prepared to meet with private sector bankers on Wednesday night to negotiate face-to-face, the source said.

"The haircut will be superior to 50 percent, with 100 billion euros (reduction) of the Greek debt held by the private sector," the source said.

"The goal is to reach a Greek debt level of 120 percent of GDP by 2020."

It is unclear whether the private sector, represented by the Institute for International Finance, would accept such a large writedown.

Separately the source said Sarkozy would speak to Chinese President Hu Jintao soon on Chinese participation in the EFSF bailout fund. (Reporting by Julien Toyer and Yann Le Guernigou; Writing by Luke Baker)
3:25PM  :  FHFA Announces Feddie Mac Board and Managment Changes
"The Federal Housing Finance Agency today announced, in accordance with FHFA’s corporate governance regulation and Freddie Mac’s Corporate Governance Guidelines, two Freddie Mac board members, John Koskinen (Chairman) and Robert Glauber (Chairman, Governance and Nominating Committee), have reached the company’s mandatory retirement age and will be stepping down from the board at the end of the current term in February 2012..."

Read the announcement
1:43PM  :  ALERT: Reprice Risk Shifting Back to Negative, But MBS Hold Range
Fannie 3.5's are flirting with 101-06, which is both a short and long term technical level. This makes reprices for the worse a bigger risk and indeed, one lender already repriced. More could follow as these lows are tested (more still if they're broken).
1:08PM  :  ALERT: Negative Reprice Risk Wanes After Good 5yr Auction
Granted, EU events/headlines could ultimately supersede any domestic economic offerings, but the 5yr Treasury Note Auction that just occurred is a net-positive for MBS (especially considering the recently shorter durations in MBS lining up better with 5yr notes than 10's).

Bond markets are rallying in response to the lower-than-expected yield (1.055 vs a 1.067 when-issued) and the better than average bid-to-cover (2.90 vs 2.74 avg). MBS bounced higher to 101-12 and 10yr yields are down to 2.139 from 2.166 before the auction. Reprices for the worse are no longer a risk at the moment. Further gains in MBS would shift risks toward reprices for the better. But there's still a lot of European uncertainty looming.
11:48AM  :  ALERT: MBS Near Lows as Stocks Rally. Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
Lenders came into the day somewhat hedged for the expected volatility, so it's not likely that we'd see widespread reprices unless Fannie 3.5's get closer to 101-00. The 101-06 level could be a trigger for a few early adopters. Bottom line, MBS are near lows, currently 101-07 in Fannie 3.5's and reprice risk is greater than 0%. Stock lever very much in play.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Steve Chizmadia  :  "REPRICE: 3:49 PM - Pinnacle Worse"
Grant R. Menard  :  "You rock KENT thanks for the exact section! LOVE mnd"
Ira Selwin  :  "REPRICE: 3:40 PM - Wells Fargo Worse"
Kent Mikkola #353976  :  "reference the 4155 1-9 F"
Grant R. Menard  :  "exactly. any LINK for that to hud ?"
Matt Hodges  :  "u/w is wrong - it's 100% financed or 100% paid at closing - nothing inbetween"
Grant R. Menard  :  "Does anyone have a hud link that explains upfront MIP can be paid by borrower in cash at closing ? If you can believe it I have a lender telling me it HAS to be rolled in no exceptions."
Ira Selwin  :  "REPRICE: 3:28 PM - Chase Worse"
Thomas Quann  :  "REPRICE: 3:01 PM - FPF Wholesale Worse"
Grant R. Menard  :  "REPRICE: 2:58 PM - Stearns Lending Worse"
John Rodgers  :  "all loans now locked thanks to MND"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "2 trillion at least "
BVG  :  "how much is needed?"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "Thats not enough"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - OVERALL SIZE OF EFSF AFTER LEVERAGING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 1.0 TRILLION EUROS -- EU SOURCES "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - EFSF FUND LIKELY TO HAVE BASE OF 250-275 BLN EUROS FOR LEVERAGING -- EU SOURCE "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- LEVERAGE OF EFSF BAILOUT FUND EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORDER OF FOUR TIMES, BASE AMOUNT NOT YET FIXED -- EU SOURCE "
Brent Borcherding  :  "China has backed efforts to tackle the euro zone's debt crisis but there is currently nothing concrete concerning support for a special purpose investment vehicle (SPIV) of the euro zone's bailout fund, a Chinese diplomat said on Wednesday. "China always supported the EU's effort to deal with the crisis and has done its bit," said the diplomat, who is based in Brussels. "China will continue to do so but, with regard to the special purpose vehicle, there is nothing concrete and detailed." 10/26/"
Matt Hodges  :  "locked one at ST right before - woo hoo"
Timothy Baron  :  "REPRICE: 2:18 PM - Suntrust Worse"
Kent Mikkola #353976  :  "REPRICE: 2:02 PM - Interbank Worse"
Matthew Graham  :  "Another "A""
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US TREASURY - PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $14.11 BLN OF 5-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $17.23 BLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. 5-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.90, NON-COMP BIDS $28.65 MLN "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $35 BLN 5-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 1.055 PCT, AWARDS 57.79 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH "
Matthew Graham  :  "5yr WI currently 1.067-ish"
Matthew Graham  :  "I rarely have an opinion on which way an auction will go, but I tend to feel like this one will be strong due to auction timing not having offered up 5yr issues as near their historical lows as the 3,10,30 cycles"
Matthew Graham  :  "Average Bid-to-cover 2.74 for the last 4 auctions"
Matthew Graham  :  "6 of last 8 auctions had higher yields than 1pm When-Issued"
Ira Selwin  :  "If you have an alert setup, you can get a text message from here if it's significant."
Victor Burek  :  "mg..any auction info?"
Bobby Kurpinsky  :  "so nobody knows the time today? leaving for a closing and don't want to miss it"