Volume was moderate overnight after a healthy session yesterday. 10yr yields rose to yesterday's highs around 1.94 around 230am this morning before charging back lower on news that an Italian debt auction came in with a lackluster bid to cover. Out of several auctions, and despite lower-than-previous yields, markets were concerned with Italy's 2014 BTP bid-to-cover at 1.218. Beyond that there were plenty of other inconsequential European headlines, but only the one major market mover.
Like yesterday, today offers up a few domestic economic reports. The 830am time slot has the trade data with both Import/Export Prices and the International Trade report. The tenor of data shifts back to the consumer with Reuters/UMichigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am. Expectations for those reports are in the table below as well as updated results from yesterday's data.
MBS are flat on the morning ahead of data with Fannie 3.5's at 103-02. 10yr yields at 2.6bps lower at 1.900.
|
Period |
Unit |
Actual |
Forecast |
Prior |
||
|
Monday, January 09 |
|
|
||||
|
15:00 |
Consumer credit |
Nov |
$bln |
20.37 |
+7.00b |
+7.65b |
|
Tuesday, January 10 |
|
|
||||
|
10:00 |
Wholesale inventories mm |
Nov |
% |
+.01 |
+0.4% |
+1.6% |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale sales mm |
Nov |
% |
+.06 |
+0.6% |
+0.9% |
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
Wednesday, January 11 |
|
|
||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index (No Survey 12/28) |
w/e |
-- |
663.1 |
-- |
634.6 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market: change |
w/e |
% |
4.5 |
-- |
-4.1% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
177.1 |
-- |
163.9 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
3560.6 |
-- |
3448.3 |
|
07:00 |
Refinancing: change |
w/e |
% |
3.3 |
-- |
-2.5% |
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase: change |
w/e |
% |
8.1 |
-- |
-9.6% |
|
07:00 |
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate |
w/e |
% |
4.11 |
-- |
4.07% |
|
01:00 |
10-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thursday, January 12 |
|
|
||||
|
08:30 |
Retail Sales mm |
Dec |
pct |
0.1 |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
|
08:30 |
Retail Sales Ex Autos |
Dec |
pct |
-0.2 |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
399 |
375k |
372k |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
$mln |
3.628 |
3.59 m |
3.595 m |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
Nov |
% |
+0.3 |
+0.4% |
+0.8% |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
14:00 |
Federal budget, $ |
Dec |
$bln |
-85.97 |
-82.5b |
-137.3b |
|
Friday, January 13 |
|
|
||||
|
08:30 |
International Trade |
Nov |
$bln |
-- |
-45.0 |
-43.47 |
|
08:30 |
Import Prices |
Dec |
% |
-- |
-0.1 |
+0.7 |
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
Dec |
% |
-- |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
71.5 |
69.9 |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
80.2 |
79.6 |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jan |
-- |
-- |
65.0 |
63.6 |
MBS Market Alerts
