MBS Live: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:02 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.
1:17PM :
ALERT:
MBS Continue Outperforming. Several Positive Reprices Reported
The post-NFP trading continues to be about as uneventful and disappointing as it gets... Fortunately, that's just the way MBS likes it and Fannie 3.5's continue to trade in a tight range, several ticks improved from yesterday's latest levels (keep in mind, that refers to "latest levels in April coupons, which went out at 103-03), currently up 4 ticks at 103-07.
As for the "uneventful and disappointing," we note the utter lack of conviction that continues to dominate Treasury trading. It's not that we'd want higher mortgage rates, but it is disappointing to see that 10yr yields are still unwilling to break higher than their March 1st highs even after the combined impact of the Greek bond swap and today's NFP. What's the point of economic data and ostensibly important headlines if markets aren't going to do anything with them anyway?
Even volume is much lower than normal for NFP Friday's, yet another symptom of a disturbingly quiet and noncommittal bond market. It's scary because past precedent has groomed us to expect a big move in one direction or another following such bouts of tenaciously sideways price action. So we're left wondering--uncomfortably--are things different this time? The fact that we can answer "yeah... probably they're different" feels like scarcely enough to extinguish the instinctive anxiety that heretofore, has served to protect the savvy market watcher from being caught on the wrong side of bigger moves.
The compensation for this increased blood pressure is some moderate outperformance by MBS, which tend to appreciate stability in benchmarks such as 10yr yields. So we'll take the small victories when we can. Case in point: a few reprices have already been reported, and further gains in MBS, or even simply more time spent holding current levels, could result in a few more this afternoon.
As for the "uneventful and disappointing," we note the utter lack of conviction that continues to dominate Treasury trading. It's not that we'd want higher mortgage rates, but it is disappointing to see that 10yr yields are still unwilling to break higher than their March 1st highs even after the combined impact of the Greek bond swap and today's NFP. What's the point of economic data and ostensibly important headlines if markets aren't going to do anything with them anyway?
Even volume is much lower than normal for NFP Friday's, yet another symptom of a disturbingly quiet and noncommittal bond market. It's scary because past precedent has groomed us to expect a big move in one direction or another following such bouts of tenaciously sideways price action. So we're left wondering--uncomfortably--are things different this time? The fact that we can answer "yeah... probably they're different" feels like scarcely enough to extinguish the instinctive anxiety that heretofore, has served to protect the savvy market watcher from being caught on the wrong side of bigger moves.
The compensation for this increased blood pressure is some moderate outperformance by MBS, which tend to appreciate stability in benchmarks such as 10yr yields. So we'll take the small victories when we can. Case in point: a few reprices have already been reported, and further gains in MBS, or even simply more time spent holding current levels, could result in a few more this afternoon.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Brett Boyke : "http://www.isda.org/dc/view.asp?issuenum=2012030901"
Scott Valins : "REPRICE: 3:02 PM - Interbank Better"
Matt Hodges : "disorderly vs. orderly default"
Victor Burek : "wonder how many had cds, but swapped their bonds and now are not gonna get paid"
Matt Hodges : "a default occurs when any part of principal or interest is not fully repaid"
Victor Burek : "i thought they said early on if voluntary no default..but of course it was never gonna be 100% involvment"
Matthew Graham : "Vic, it was possible we'd get a credit event even without CACs"
Matt Hodges : "it's a default regardless if principal isn't repaid"
Brent Borcherding : "Wow...people running back to their desks?"
Victor Burek : "you force it on them...its a default"
Matthew Graham : "markets are just finding out that this was due to invocation of CACs"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISDA SAYS VOTE ON GREEK CREDIT EVENT WAS UNANIMOUS AFTER SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURING "
Matthew Graham : "has occurred. remaining CDS to be auctioned 3/19"
Victor Burek : "has"
Brett Boyke : "there go all the mouse traps popping"
Brent Borcherding : "Credit event has or has not occured?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISDA EMEA DETERMINATIONS COMMITTEE: RESTRUCTURING CREDIT EVENT HAS OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC "
Victor Burek : "ISDA...credit event has taken place in Greece"
Kent Mikkola #353976 : "REPRICE: 11:56 AM - Provident Funding Better"