The week just passed was horribly epic--fraught with significant economic data (both at home and abroad), important Treasury auctions, an FOMC Announcement, and a final confirmation on Greece's bailout, just to name a few.  And let's not forget the purely technical developments that added to, and confirmed the sense that something very major was happening, namely, the release of the stored energy from months of interest rate repression.

Here's how it looked for MBS:

and for Treasuries:

After such a move, history suggests the average trading range will be wider over the next two weeks than it has been.  Whether or not that turns out to be true with the current breakout isn't yet clear.  Even if we do see a higher-than-normal amount of volatility this week, it doesn't look like it will be motivated by a particularly active data calendar, especially not in the same way last week was. 

There's hardly any meaningful data this week.  The little that exists is comprised mainly of the relatively inconsequential housing market series beginning today with the NAHB Housing at Market Index at 10am, which is seen rising from 29 in the previous month to 30 in today's report.  Even if it misses appreciably, we're not expecting major impact on trading levels.  More interesting by far will be Fed-Speak from FOMC Voter Dudley at 8:35am and again at 1:40pm.  In the interim, we'll get scheduled Fed Twist buying in the very pertinent 2020-2022 maturity range beginning at 10:15am and completing at 11:00am.  As has been the standard occurrence, look for the day's highest volume and volatility just after that.

The rest of the week:

Tuesday

830am - Housing Starts and Building Permits, both expected to be scarcely different than their previous report although building permits are seen rising somewhat faster to a 0.690 mln unit annual pace vs a 0.682 mln pace last time.  By contrast, Housing Starts are only seen 0.001 mln units higher than January's 0.699 mln unit pace.

Wednesday

700am - With us as always are the MBA's weekly application numbers.  Last week's refi index was down to 3971.1 and the overall index stood at 736.5

1000am - Existing Home Sales For February.  Seen rising from 4.57 mln annual pace to 4.62 mln.  One of the more important pieces of housing data this week and one of the only chances to see market movement from an industry-related report.

Thursday

830am - With us as always, weekly Jobless Claims.  351k last week, expected to rise to 355k this week.  One of the few non-housing reports we're mentioning this week and not surprisingly, the best opportunity for economic data to have a market impact.  

1000am - FHFA Home Price Index

Friday

  1000am - New Home Sales.  Expected to arrive at a 0.325 mln unit annual pace vs a 0.321 mln unit annual pace in January.