After two excruciatingly slow, sideways weeks, markets will finally get what they've ostensibly been waiting for: Wednesday's FOMC Announcement. This one offers the full slate of festivities with the Bernanke press conference and the FOMC Member Forecasts. That means that the announcement itself is in the earlier time-slot at 12:30pm as opposed to 2:15pm. The 5yr Note auction that would normally be at 1pm, is moved instead to 11:30am.
Because of "all that," it's tough to consider how much attention we'd want to pay to any events before Wednesday afternoon. Economic data and even the 5yr Auction would have to be pretty bizarre in order to have much of an impact on wherever the market wants to be trading before, during, and after the FOMC stuff.
Thankfully, the data calendar is empty today, effectively giving us a free day to get geared up for the rest of the week. There is a round of scheduled Fed "Twist" buying concluding at 11:00am in the 2036 to 2042 maturity range, but that's about it.
Whereas the past week stood a good chance to be range-bound and sideways, the current week is much more of a wild card. Be prepared for bigger moves in either direction. On a final note, since we're basically saying "expect more volatility this week," remember that neither MBS or Rate Sheets care much for volatility. In other words, be ready to act quickly.
|
Week Of Mon, Apr 23 2012 - Fri, Apr 27 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Tue, Apr 24 |
||||||
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm SA |
Feb |
% |
+0.2 |
0.0 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
Feb |
% |
-0.6 |
-0.8 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 yy |
Feb |
% |
-3.4 |
-3.8 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Monthly Home Price mm |
Feb |
% |
-- |
0.0 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
New home sales-units mm |
Mar |
ml |
.320 |
.313 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Apr |
-- |
70.3 |
70.8 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
2-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Wed, Apr 25 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
725.4 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3936.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Durable goods |
Mar |
% |
-1.5 |
+2.4 |
-- |
|
11:30 |
5-Yr Treasury Acution |
-- |
bl |
35.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
12:30 |
FOMC rate decision |
no policy chng expected. all about verbiage |
||||
|
14:00 |
FOMC Member Forecasts |
|||||
|
14:15 |
Bernanke Press Conference |
will press "press" for QE clarity? Probably |
||||
|
Thu, Apr 26 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
375k |
386k |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.29 |
3.297 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Pending sales change mm |
Mar |
% |
+1.0 |
-0.5 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
7-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
29.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Apr 27 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
GDP (Q1 2011 – Advance) |
Q1 |
% |
+2.5 |
+3.0 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Apr |
-- |
75.7 |
75.7 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Apr |
-- |
81.0 |
80.6 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Apr |
-- |
72.5 |
72.5 |
-- |
|
mm: month over month | yy: year over year | qq: quarter over quarter (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted |
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