Diligent readers of this commentary might ask themselves: "I wonder if those guys know how much FLAT, DEAD, BORING, and SIDEWAYS has been in the commentary recently." Indeed we do dear reader. Indeed we do... And so it is with more than a little bit of resignation that we regret to inform you that YET ANOTHER FLAT, DEAD, BORING, and SIDEWAYS trading session is now drifting inconsequentially further away in the rearview.
Monday was one of the slowest days of the year. A slow day was not entirely unexpected, but the magnitude of the slowness was--if nothing else--a bit odd considering that it had an oppotunity to trade European election results, the first trading day since NFP, and the first opportunity of the week to begin gearing up for Treasury Auctions.
It's possible we'll see more of that today, but as far as getting auction results that matter to MBS, today is not our day. The data calendar is deceptively larger, but doesn't contain the sort of reports that make it onto the short-list. As soon as ICSC Chain Store Sales, Redbook, IBD Economic Optimism Index, and BLS's JOLTS survey start eliciting real-time market reactions, we'd be keen to pay more attention. As it stands, we're already feeling some "analysis remorse" even having mentioned them. Moving on...
Apart from the least interesting of this week's coupon auctions (3yr Treasuries at 1pm), the only other events we'll tune in for are the two Fed Speakers in the morning and perhaps the schedule Fed "Twist" buying in the 6-8 year maturity range. As per usual, the Fed buying is 10:15-11:00am with some small level of volatility always possible at the conclusion. Fed speakers are Dudley at 4:45am (he's in Europe!) and Lacker at 9:45am (he's not!), both voters, and while neither is likely to blow our minds, we always like to tune in to observe potential changes their apparent place on the "Hawk/Dove" spectrum.
But all this is really pushing it compared to Wednesday. Even then, the best thing going for Wednesday is the 10yr Auction at 1pm combined with the fact that it is one day before Thursday (a day that actually offers some serious economic data as well as the conclusion of the Treasury Auctions for the week. Countin' the hours.... But of course, we'll let you know if something interesting happens.
Week Of Mon, May 7 2012 - Fri, May 11 2012 |
||||||
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
Mon, May 7 |
||||||
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Mar |
Bl |
+9.8 |
+8.73 |
-- |
Tue, May 8 |
||||||
13:00 |
3yr Treasury Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Wed, May 9 |
||||||
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
697.7 |
698.2 |
07:00 |
Refinancing Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
3715.2 |
3687.7 |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
Mar |
pct |
+0.6 |
+0.9 |
-- |
10:00 |
Wholesale Sales |
Mar |
Pct |
+0.7 |
+1.2 |
-- |
13:00 |
10yr Treasury Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Thu, May 10 |
||||||
08:30 |
International Trade |
Mar |
Bln |
-50.0 |
-46.03 |
- |
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
370 |
365 |
-- |
08:30 |
Import Prices |
Apr |
Pct |
-0.1 |
+1.3 |
-- |
08:30 |
Export Prices |
Apr |
Pct |
+0.2 |
+0.8 |
-- |
14:00 |
Federal Budget |
Apr |
-- |
55.5 |
56.0 |
53.5 |
13:00 |
30yr Treasury Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Fri, May 11 |
||||||
08:30 |
Producer Price Index mm |
Apr |
Pct |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-- |
09:55 |
Consumer Sentiment |
May |
-- |
76.4 |
8.2 |
76.4 |
* mm: month over month | yy: year over year | qq: quarter over quarter * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |