Mortgages Rates are unchanged in some cases and slightly higher in others.  Overall, the difference between today's offerings and yesterday's is fairly minimal and is more likely to be seen in the form of slightly higher closing costs (or lower lender credit) as opposed to the interest rates themselves.  Yesterday we noted that more an more lenders are able to offer 3.875% as a "Best Execution" rate for Conventional 30yr Fixed Loans.  Best-Ex is currently shared by 3.875% and 4.0%.

(read more about Best-Execution calculations).

Although there was plenty of economic data for markets to digest today, it did little to move interest rates in one direction or another.  Granted, rates are slightly higher, but because of yesterday's moderate improvements, they're still in healthy territory.  In short, market movements didn't really "make a statement" about interest rates' determination to go higher or lower.

We've been expecting recent monotony to be broken by tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, or at least to see its best potential of being broken.  The FOMC Announcement is the Fed's periodic official statement on monetary policy.  It used to be that markets tuned in to find out if there would be a change in the policy itself, usually meaning a change in the Fed Funds Rate.

But not only are markets not remotely close to expecting a change in Fed rates, they're not expecting any changes in policy either.  As has been the case on several occasions recently, markets are most interest in the verbiage the Fed chooses to convey its existing policy.  That verbiage can provide hints about how or when the Fed's stance might be changing.

The bottom line is that tomorrow's events can have a large, immediate effect on mortgage rates, though we'd be careful to note that there are plenty of examples of FOMC Announcement days that have resulted in relatively unchanged mortgage rates the following day.  The point is that FOMC Announcements--particularly those like this week's which is accompanied by a Bernanke Press Conference and FOMC Forecast updates--carry just about as much POTENTIAL to move markets as anything.  

Today's BEST-EXECUTION Rates 

• 30YR FIXED -  3.875%-4.0%
• FHA/VA -3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED -  3.125-3.25%
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.625-3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels
• Current levels have experienced increasing resistance in improving much from here
• Rates could easily move higher or lower, but given the nearness to all time lows, there's generally more risk than reward regarding floating
• But that will always be the case when rates operate near all-time levels, and as 2011 showed us, it doesn't always mean they're done improving.
• (As always, please keep in mind that our talk of Best-Execution always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There can be all sorts of reasons that your quoted rate would not be the same as our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you're following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).