10yr yields hit all time lows yesterday and production MBS hit all time highs. But rather than forging ahead into new all time lows, 10yr yields (we'll focus on them as they're more of a benchmark for "the bond market" than poor old MBS) simply MATCHED previous all time lows. And it was EXACT at 1.442. 10's actually hit 1.442 several times today and then bounced higher at 2pm. MBS fared slightly better once that game was afoot, and managed to hold their ground for the most part. All in all, however, this didn't feel like an "all time" day...
Here in the early Asian trading hours, 10's are up to 1.4893 in mega light volume. Volume has been mega light for quite a while now with no July trading days cracking the standard-issue line in the sand for a "decent" day of volume: 1mil 10yr futures contracts. Things have fallen about as eerily silent as they get outside the year-end trading pattern in Dec/Jan.
Could today's Bernanke testimony have something to do with that? Honestly, we're getting a bit tired of constantly looking toward some impending event as a good potential market mover only to be disappointed. Could the Bernanke testimony utterly revolutionize the very landscape of fixed income forever and ever? Yeah... Maybe... Will it? Probably not.
The point is that we'll cross that bridge if someone builds it, but until then, everyone will look and feel a lot "cooler" if we sit back and observe--cognizant of certain events' gravity, but not banking on said gravity until it's felt. To that end we can wholeheartedly poo-poo the CPI and TIC releases today. Neither of these reports have merited consideration for quite some time. That knowledge will help you justify bumping the alarm clock back as the first potentially useful data hits at 9:15am with Industrial Production. Even then, the meat and potatoes are served at 10am with Bernanke's congressional testimony and more importantly, Q&A that follows.
|
Week Of Mon, Jul 16 2012 - Fri, Jul 20 2012 |
||||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Jul 16 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Jun |
% |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Jun |
% |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jul |
-- |
4.00 |
2.29 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
May |
% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
-- |
|
Tue, Jul 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
TIC Foreign buying, bonds |
May |
bl |
-- |
37.3 |
-- |
|
09:00 |
TIC (Long Term ex Swaps) |
May |
bl |
-- |
8.4 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Jun |
% |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
-- |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Jun |
% |
79.1 |
79.0 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jul |
-- |
29 |
29 |
-- |
|
Wed, Jul 18 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
192.6 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4369.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Jun |
ml |
0.740 |
0.708 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Jun |
ml |
0.755 |
0.784 |
-- |
|
Thu, Jul 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
365 |
350 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Jun |
ml |
4.60 |
4.55 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
1.05 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" | CPI/PPI: "Consumer/Producer Price Index" * TIC: "Treasury International Capital" report |
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