Thursday continues the theme of increased activity that arrived yesterday. In the overnight session, there's a decent offering of European data and events including Industrial Production for the whole Euro zone, inflation data for France and Germany, as well as a press conference with ECB Pres Draghi. There's some market moving potential there, but probably just as much in Treasuries favorite 2012 pastime: "Bund-Watching!"
On today's episode of Bundwatch (Bunds are Germany's 10yr bonds, also the Eurozone Benchmark), Treasuries will again be watching for Bunds to break into new all time lows. They did so last night, and to salubrious effect for domestic bond markets early yesterday morning. We're not necessarily expecting Bunds to do one thing or another--merely stating that Treasuries are paying attention in the sense that they've benefited from spillover buying when Bunds are well-bid.
On today's data calendar, there's Jobless Claims, with us as always. Forecasts call for 376k vs last week's 374k. Anything close to that is boring and a non-issue for bond markets. Import/Export Prices occupy the same 8:30am time slot and also compete with Jobless Claims (assuming Claims prints anywhere close to consensus) for the "report least likely to move markets," except in the case of prices, there's really not much hope.
Sorry to go a bit cynical on you there, but markets are significantly more interested in the 30yr auction, either to learn something about how it's taken down or simply to be done with it so they can move on to the trading for which they've been waiting until after this week's auction cycle. For their part, MBS will take whatever they can get. After bleeding out to noticeably weaker levels late yesterday, it's important to note how strong the levels actually are. Take the last 4 trading sessions out of the picture and yesterday's 103-12 on Fannie 3.0's would be an all time high. In fact, 3.0s could fall to 102-26 and STILL be in a strong, long, positive trend.
|
Week Of Mon, Jul 2 2012 - Fri, Jul 6 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Jul 9 |
||||||
|
15:00 |
Consumer credit |
May |
bl |
9.00 |
6.50 |
-- |
|
Tue, Jul 10 |
||||||
|
13:00 |
3-Yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
32.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Wed, Jul 11 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
816.7 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4524.1 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
International trade mm $ |
May |
bl |
-49.0 |
-50.1 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale inventories mm |
May |
% |
0.3 |
0.6 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Wholesale sales mm |
May |
% |
0.2 |
1.1 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
10-yr Note Auction |
-- |
bl |
21.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes (June 20th Meeting) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Thu, Jul 12 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Import prices mm |
Jun |
% |
-2.0 |
-1.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Continued jobless claims |
w/e |
ml |
3.300 |
3.306 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
376 |
374 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Export prices mm |
Jun |
% |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-- |
|
13:00 |
30-Yr TIPS Auction |
-- |
bl |
13.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
Fri, Jul 13 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Producer prices mm |
Jun |
% |
-0.6 |
-1.0 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Producer prices, core mm |
Jun |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich sentiment |
Jul |
-- |
73.5 |
73.2 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U Mich conditions |
Jul |
-- |
81.2 |
81.5 |
-- |
|
09:55 |
U.Mich expectation |
Jul |
-- |
67.8 |
67.8 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |
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