Compared to last week, which boasted several major central bank policy announcements and the jobs report, the week ahead is a relative ghost town in terms of significant data and events. As such, it's fair to expect fewer market participants will be glued to their screens, meaning that it takes fewer people/dollars/computers/algorithms to move financial averages. This can exaggerate price movements at times, but it's probably better to "be aware of that possibility" rather than to flat-out "expect volatility."
As the emissary of the slow week, Monday looks the part. There's really nothing on the calendar that bears mentioning. Even the European and Asian sessions overnight have far less on tap than normal, and none of it "big ticket."
From an economic data standpoint, there's really only one major report this week with Thursday's International Trade report. Even then, we're increasingly viewing some pieces of economic data as having more "old school" street cred in the sense that they've been important market movers in the past, but have certainly waned in the past year or so. The inflation reports, for instance, fit that bill perfectly. They used to be huge, but now we can't really be bothered. International Trade probably won't be put out to that same pasture with PPI and CPI, but it ain't what it used to be.
That's true of so many previous truths that we're hesitant to assume the nonchalant stance suggested by the week's calendar of events and probable lower volume. In the current era, it's the unexpected European tape-bombs that do the most damage, leaving markets in a state of somewhat eternal vigilance. Likely, nothing incites a major move this week, but we're sensitive to the fact that rates markets are coming into the week at recent highs after a volatile 5-6 sessions.
Week Of Mon, Aug 6 2012 - Fri, Aug 10 2012 |
||||||
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
Mon, Aug 6 | ||||||
-- | No Significant Scheduled Data | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Tue, Aug 7 | ||||||
13:00 | 3-Yr Note Auction | -- | bl | 32.0 | -- | -- |
15:00 | Consumer credit | Jun | bl | 12.00 | 17.12 | -- |
Wed, Aug 8 | ||||||
07:00 | Mortgage market index | w/e | -- | -- | 945.7 | -- |
07:00 | MBA Purchase Index | w/e | -- | -- | 182.0 | -- |
07:00 | Mortgage refinance index | w/e | -- | -- | 5452.8 | -- |
07:00 | MBA 30-yr mortgage rate | w/e | % | -- | 3.75 | -- |
08:30 | Productivity Revised | Q2 | % | 1.4 | -0.9 | -- |
08:30 | Labor costs Revised | Q2 | % | 0.5 | 1.3 | -- |
13:00 | 10-yr Note Auction |
-- | bl | 24.0 | -- | -- |
Thu, Aug 9 | ||||||
08:30 | Continued jobless claims | w/e | ml | 3.270 | 3.272 | -- |
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | w/e | k | 370 | 365 | -- |
08:30 | International trade mm $ | Jun | bl | -47.4 | -48.7 | -- |
10:00 | Wholesale inventories mm | Jun | % | 0.3 | 0.3 | -- |
10:00 | Wholesale sales mm | Jun | % | 0.2 | -0.8 | -- |
13:00 | 30-Yr Bond Auction | -- | bl | 16.0 | -- | -- |
Fri, Aug 10 | ||||||
08:30 | Import prices mm | Jul | % | 0.0 | -2.7 | -- |
08:30 | Export prices mm | Jul | % | -0.1 | -1.7 | -- |
14:00 | Federal budget, $ | Jul | bl | -- | -- | -- |
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |