10yr yields moved to new all-time lows overnight as the slow-motion train wreck in Europe continues to unfold. The Spanish region of Murcia becomes the third such autonomous region to move toward requesting financial assistance from Spain's central government. It's interesting to note that when combined with the other two regions to request aid, Catalonia and Valencia, Murcia fills the final hole covering Spain's entire eastern border. It's almost as if the Euro zone contagion is merely making landfall in the east of Spain with fears that it will quickly spread to the other regions.
"Fears also rose about Greece's ability to stay afloat, after its prime minister said on Sunday that the country was in a "Great Depression" similar to the one in the 1930s, as international lenders were scheduled to gather in Athens to discuss the terms of further rescue payments.The European Central Bank said on Friday that Greek government bonds will be ineligible for banks to use as collateral to borrow from the ECB from July 25." - REUTERS
The combination of Greek and Spanish turmoil in addition to the relative absence of domestic economic data mean that markets should remain relatively focused on European headlines at least for Monday. Other than the Fed's scheduled buying in the 2018-2020 maturity range, there's only the relatively unimportant Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30am.
Things pick up somewhat for the balance of the week. Tuesday is still a bit slow, suffering from the same lack of upper-tier data as Monday. 2yr Auctions might as well not even be reported as far as the mortgage origination community is concerned and The Monthly Home Prices report is more "interesting" than it is "market-moving."
Wednesday brings more relevant data with New Home Sales and the 5yr Treasury Auction, But Thursday is the climax of the relatively tame week of data with Durable Goods, Initial Jobless Claims, and the conclusion of the week's auction cycle on tap. Consumer Sentiment follows on Friday, but overall, the week leaves a lot of room for headlines, Euro zone drama, and summertime tradeflow considerations.
MBS Live Econ Calendar:
Week Of Mon, Jul 23 2012 - Fri, Jul 27 2012
| Time | Event | Period | Unit | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Jul 23 | |||||
| 08:30 | National Activity Index | Jun | -- | -- | -0.45 |
| Tue, Jul 24 | |||||
| 10:00 | Rich Fed comp. index | Jul | -- | -- | -3 |
| 10:00 | Rich Fed, services index | Jul | -- | -- | 9 |
| 10:00 | Rich Fed manuf shipments | Jul | -- | -- | -2 |
| 10:00 | Monthly Home Price mm | May | % | -- | 0.8 |
| 10:00 | Monthly Home Price yy | May | % | -- | 3.0 |
| 11:30 | 52-Week Bill Auction | -- | bl | 25.0 | -- |
| 13:00 | 2-Yr Note Auction | -- | bl | 35.0 | -- |
| Wed, Jul 25 | |||||
| 07:00 | Mortgage market index | w/e | -- | -- | 935.4 |
| 07:00 | Mortgage market: change | w/e | % | -- | 18.0 |
| 07:00 | MBA Purchase Index | w/e | -- | -- | 192.4 |
| 07:00 | Mortgage refinance index | w/e | -- | -- | 5314.4 |
| 07:00 | Refinancing: change | w/e | % | -- | 19.2 |
| 07:00 | MBA Purchase: change | w/e | % | -- | 12.8 |
| 07:00 | MBA 30-yr mortgage rate | w/e | % | -- | 3.74 |
| 10:00 | New home sales-units mm | Jun | ml | 0.372 | 0.369 |
| 10:00 | New home sales chg mm | Jun | % | -- | 7.6 |
| 13:00 | 5-Yr Treasury Auction | -- | bl | 35.0 | -- |
| Thu, Jul 26 | |||||
| 00:00 | Build permits R numbr mm | Jun | ml | -- | 0.755 |
| 00:00 | Build permits R chg mm | Jun | % | -- | -3.7 |
| 08:30 | Durable goods | Jun | % | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 08:30 | Factory ex-transp mm | Jun | % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 08:30 | Nondefense ex-air | Jun | % | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | w/e | k | 380 | 386 |
| 08:30 | Continued jobless claims | w/e | ml | 3.310 | 3.314 |
| 10:00 | Pending sales change mm | Jun | % | 0.2 | 5.9 |
| 11:00 | KC Fed manufacturing | Jul | -- | -- | 12 |
| 13:00 | 7-Yr Note Auction | -- | bl | 29.0 | -- |
| Fri, Jul 27 | |||||
| 09:55 | U.Mich sentiment | Jul | -- | 72.0 | 72.0 |
| 09:55 | U Mich conditions | Jul | -- | 82.8 | 83.2 |
| 09:55 | U.Mich expectation | Jul | -- | 64.4 | 64.8 |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" | CPI/PPI: "Consumer/Producer Price Index" * TIC: "Treasury International Capital" report |
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