Yesterday, we noted that the morning's economic data was highly unlikely to move markets and that Bernanke's 2nd round of Congressional testimony was even more unlikely to offer up any new market movers. Those educated guesses panned out well as the most significant movement of the day was seen in the overnight session. For Treasuries, domestic hours just drifted sideways again with the highs and lows of the day both arriving early and INSIDE the previous sessions extremes.
MBS were slightly better-off though. Fannie 3.0's had a nice, even if low-volume run of higher highs all the way until the 3pm Treasury close at which point they had once again matched all-time highs. As the world gets more and more comfortable with the idea of 3.0s, we think that sort of moderate outperformance stands a decent chance to continue on days like yesterday where there was not much movement in one direction or another and where new MBS originations stay average or lighter.
Today is slightly more robust than the past few days in terms of scheduled economic data, but only just. Jobless Claims still aren't interesting until they're definitively outside the longstanding range between 350-400k, but it's still employment data. Existing Home Sales is germane to our industry, but not as important to markets. Leading indicators is even less so. That leaves the Philly Fed Index as today's "biggee" in terms of potential. Just remember that potential is sometimes wasted. We'll see.
As a final point of order, it should be noted that Germany convenes a special session of Parliament today to debate Spain's €100 bln bailout request. Additionally, The ECB's governing council will be meeting. Both of these goings-on create the possibility of unscheduled European tape-bombs, but we'd expect them to be mostly out of the way by late morning (no time frames provided at last check).
|
Week Of Mon, Jul 16 2012 - Fri, Jul 20 2012 |
||||||
|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Jul 16 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Jun |
% |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Jun |
% |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jul |
-- |
4.00 |
2.29 |
7.39 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
May |
% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
+0.3 |
|
Tue, Jul 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
+0.2 |
|
09:00 |
TIC Foreign buying, bonds |
May |
bl |
-- |
37.3 |
45.9 |
|
09:00 |
TIC (Long Term ex Swaps) |
May |
bl |
-- |
8.4 |
55.0 |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Jun |
% |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
+0.4 |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Jun |
% |
79.1 |
79.0 |
78.9 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jul |
-- |
29 |
29 |
35 |
|
Wed, Jul 18 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
192.6 |
-- |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4369.3 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Jun |
ml |
0.740 |
0.708 |
-- |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Jun |
ml |
0.755 |
0.784 |
-- |
|
Thu, Jul 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
365 |
350 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Jun |
ml |
4.60 |
4.55 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
-- |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
1.05 |
-- |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" | CPI/PPI: "Consumer/Producer Price Index" * TIC: "Treasury International Capital" report |
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