Bond markets seemed to face an uphill battle from the outset on Thursday. Treasuries closely followed German Bunds in the overnight session and came into the domestic session at their highest yields of the week, just over 1.52 in for 10yr Notes. Weaker-than-expected Jobless Claims wasn't enough to gain any traction and had it not been for an abysmal employment component in the Philly Fed data at 10am, they might not have gotten any traction for the rest of the day either.
Even after we got the boost from Philly Fed, 10's were still never able to break back into the previous day's range, and instead got pushed back into the ceiling around 1.52 in the afternoon. MBS were heroic by comparison, actually hitting higher highs than the previous session and holding on to support at 103-18 in the afternoon. In short, MBS looked like that had a sideways-to-slightly positive day while Treasuries had a tough one.
Today is anyone's guess as we have no scheduled economic data, a gigantic raft of corporate earnings, and perhaps most unpredictable of all, a conference call among Eurozone finance ministers to discuss Spain's bank bailout. Bond markets will likely take their cues from whoever speaks the loudest between equities and European markets. As was the case yesterday, MBS stand a good chance to fair better than Treasuries in most scenarios except a barn-burning rally, in which case, we probably wouldn't care about the underperformance given the green on the screens.
|
Week Of Mon, Jul 16 2012 - Fri, Jul 20 2012 |
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|
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
|
Mon, Jul 16 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Retail sales mm |
Jun |
% |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
|
08:30 |
Retail sales ex-autos mm |
Jun |
% |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
|
08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Jul |
-- |
4.00 |
2.29 |
7.39 |
|
10:00 |
Business inventories mm |
May |
% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
+0.3 |
|
Tue, Jul 17 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
|
08:30 |
Core CPI mm, sa |
Jun |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
+0.2 |
|
09:00 |
TIC Foreign buying, bonds |
May |
bl |
-- |
37.3 |
45.9 |
|
09:00 |
TIC (Long Term ex Swaps) |
May |
bl |
-- |
8.4 |
55.0 |
|
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Jun |
% |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
+0.4 |
|
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Jun |
% |
79.1 |
79.0 |
78.9 |
|
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Jul |
-- |
29 |
29 |
35 |
|
Wed, Jul 18 |
||||||
|
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
192.6 |
192.4 |
|
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
4369.3 |
5314.4 |
|
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Jun |
ml |
0.740 |
0.708 |
.760 |
|
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Jun |
ml |
0.755 |
0.784 |
.755 |
|
Thu, Jul 19 |
||||||
|
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
365 |
350 |
386 |
|
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Jun |
ml |
4.60 |
4.55 |
4.37 |
|
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Jun |
% |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
|
10:00 |
Philly Fed Index |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
1.05 |
-12.9 |
|
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" | CPI/PPI: "Consumer/Producer Price Index" * TIC: "Treasury International Capital" report |
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