Bond markets tried very hard on Tuesday to convince us that "something" is happening.  We've been more defensive than usual for over a week now and noted the break above 1.60 in 10yr yields as the first indication that "something" was up.   At that time, the highest intermediate pivot point we noted was 1.74.  Incidentally this was the highest yield seen in yesterday's session. 

That sets the stage for the intentionally ambiguous reference to "something."  With yields just hitting the 1.74 target (as opposed to bouncing convincingly or breaking through), we find ourselves in the relatively common position of waiting for the next trading day before getting enough information about the market's treatment of that technical level to know which it is (bounce or break). 

It's hard not to hear the nagging voice in the back of our own minds about the fundamental landscape and ask ourselves "has anything really changed?"  As far as a long term Euro solution is concerned, no...  And the trading levels in Euros will be the first to admit that.  But what the markets may be doing (if they're doing anything other than trying to buck off less skilled riders) is pretending to consider that some small cog in the European fail machine has improved in some small way during an opportune time when European governance is on vacation.

Are we saying this could be as simple as a "dog's away, cats will play" type scenario?  Yes, yes we are.  Because if it's NOT that, then things could get uglier.

For now, as with each incremental ratcheting movement higher in yields, we're hoping for as much support as can be mustered in the thinner August trading conditions.  Seeing 10's make a stand at 1.74 would be awfully neat considering this was sort of what we'd envisioned as an aggressive-but-logical sell-off target when the thing was getting underway.  If 10's are breaking higher during today's session, then we'll dust off the next few pivot points on the way up, but 1.80 is the first biggie.

Today's data landscape is more sparse than yesterday's, despite a greater number of domestic reports.  The sparseness comes from a relative absence of European data and relatively less important domestic data.  Empire State Manufacturing is the only thing on the radar at 8:30am and it's hit or miss (yes, we realize CPI prints at the same time, but can't be bothered, neither should you).  Then Industrial Production at 9:15 is the only other meaty piece of data on the day though the supporting actors might have their voices heard if they speak loudly.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Aug 13 2012 - Fri, Aug 18 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Actual

Tue, Aug 14

08:30

Retail sales mm

Jul

%

0.3

-0.5

--

08:30

Producer prices, core mm

Jul

%

0.2

0.2

--

08:30

Producer prices mm

Jul

%

0.2

0.1

--

10:00

Business inventories mm

Jun

%

0.2

0.3

--

Wed, Aug 15

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

928.8

--

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

--

179.5

--

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

5349.6

--

08:30

NY Fed manufacturing

Aug

--

6.00

7.39

--

08:30

Core CPI mm, sa

Jul

%

0.2

0.2

--

08:30

Core CPI yy, nsa

Jul

%

2.2

2.2

--

08:30

CPI mm, sa

Jul

%

0.2

0.0

--

09:00

Foreign buying, T-bonds

Jun

bl

20.0

45.9

--

09:00

Net L-T flows,exswaps

Jun

bl

20.0

55.0

--

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

Jul

%

79.2

78.9

--

09:15

Industrial output mm

Jul

%

0.4

0.4

--

10:00

NAHB housing market indx

Aug

--

35

35

--

Thu, Aug 16

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

365

361

--

08:30

Housing starts number mm

Jul

ml

0.756

0.760

--

08:30

House starts mm: change

Jul

%

--

6.9

--

08:30

Building permits: number

Jul

ml

0.766

0.760

--

08:30

Build permits: change mm

Jul

%

--

-3.1

--

Fri, Aug 17

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Aug

--

72.7

72.3

--

09:55

U Mich conditions

Aug

--

83.0

82.7

--

09:55

U.Mich expectation

Aug

--

65.5

65.6

--

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"