Markets are not shy about the fact that the week begins in earnest today. Both at home and abroad, we see the highest concentration of economic data of any day this week. There is so much data on tap in Europe overnight that it literally doesn't make sense for us to provide you with a full list in the interest of time. More importantly, whatever happens in the overnight session is whatever happens in the overnight session.
We will say that it will be interesting to line up any of the notable volume spikes overnight with the various economic reports simply to assess the extent to which markets are even paying attention to such things at the moment or if we're all simply waiting for the FOMC Announcement and the ECB Announcement the following day. But the Fed merely begins their 2-day meeting today with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday.
In the meantime, we'll get several moderately important pieces of data, well-spaced throughout the morning. In the 8:30am lead-off time slot, it's Personal Incomes and Outlays. Income is seen rising from +0.2 previously to +0.4 while outlays (personal consumption) is seen moving up to +0.1 after being unchanged for May. Keep in mind that this data is for June, so it's impact is somewhat lessened.
Most of the rest of the data is from July with the exception of the Case Shiller Home Price data at 9am which covers the month of May. 9:45am gets you Chicago PMI, the most closely-watched of the regional purchasing managers indexes. As has been the case with both the national and regional reports, we'd expect markets to continue to pay extra attention to the employment components (especially on NFP week). Rounding out the morning data it's July Consumer Confidence, expected to have fallen slightly from 62.0 to 61.3.
Week Of Mon, Jul 30 2012 - Fri, Aug 3 2012 |
||||||
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Actual |
Mon, Jul 30 |
||||||
08:30 |
Midwest manufacturing |
Jun |
-- |
-- |
93.4 |
-- |
Tue, Jul 31 |
||||||
08:30 |
Core PCE price index mm |
Jun |
% |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
08:30 |
Personal income mm |
Jun |
% |
0.4 |
0.2 |
-- |
08:30 |
Consumption, adjusted mm |
Jun |
% |
0.1 |
0.0 |
-- |
09:00 |
CaseShiller 20 mm nsa |
May |
% |
1.4 |
1.3 |
-- |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI Employment |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
60.4 |
-- |
09:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Jul |
-- |
52.5 |
52.9 |
-- |
10:00 |
Consumer confidence |
Jul |
-- |
61.3 |
62.0 |
-- |
Wed, Aug 1 |
||||||
07:00 |
MBA Purchase Index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
186.2 |
-- |
07:00 |
Mortgage refinance index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
5411.6 |
-- |
08:15 |
ADP National Employment |
Jul |
k |
120 |
176 |
-- |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Jul |
-- |
50.2 |
49.7 |
-- |
10:00 |
Construction spending |
Jun |
% |
0.4 |
0.9 |
-- |
14:15 |
FOMC rate decision |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Thu, Aug 2 |
||||||
07:30 |
Challenger layoffs |
Jul |
k |
-- |
37.6 |
-- |
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
-- |
-- |
-- |
09:45 |
ISM-New York index |
Jul |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Fri, Aug 3 |
||||||
08:30 |
Non-farm payrolls |
Jul |
k |
100 |
80 |
-- |
08:30 |
Private Payrolls |
Jul |
k |
110 |
84 |
-- |
08:30 |
Unemployment rate mm |
Jul |
% |
8.2 |
8.2 |
-- |
10:00 |
ISM N-Mfg PMI |
Jul |
-- |
52.0 |
52.1 |
-- |
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |