Monday stood a chance to be eventful, if for no other reason than it was the first day back after Friday's mega NFP sell-off.  It turned out to be extra calm, but still managed to offer clues about what might be going on.  Such clues could continue to be offered today as there continues to be not much on the calendar.  Despite their lower-than-average volume, such days give us some insight as to what markets might perceive the boundaries of the "playing field" to be, even if said boundaries aren't being pushed.

To that end, take a look at March in the charts below (and to a lesser extent, last week) as an example of such boundary testing.  At least with respect to these longer term trends stretching back to mid 2012, March of 2013 saw the most significant sustained breakout.  Note that in both cases the second batch of selling pulled the red line (21 day moving average) away from the orange line (40 day), and further delayed a cross.  Such a cross isn't always significant and can't be relied upon as anything more than a current commentary on where we are.  In other words, it's not intended to be predictive, but it can help define the playing field.  

The short version of this long story is that Friday forced an exit of any bullish trends, and in order for that to change, we'd need a similar move to the mid-March spike that could pull the red line away from it's trajectory toward the orange line.  Otherwise, we've simply ended the bull-run, but have yet to confirm that a new bearish trend is in the cards.  The only problem with this--at least for fans of low rates--is that it's all happening inside these longer term bearish trends.  

(upper chart - 10yr yields, lower chart- - Fannie 3.0 MBS)

Keep in mind that the MBS chart will be distorted on Thursday evening due to the roll.  By that time, we'll have made it through the week's Treasury auctions with the 3yr kicking the cycle off today.  3yr Auctions tend not to matter, and this has been pervasively the case for several years.  We won't really be able to entertain that it's no longer the case until markets react noticeably to one.  After the Auction, March Consumer Credit is expected to sho $16 bln in new credit vs $18.14 bln previously.  There's no other data on the schedule though market participants will be able to digest a few big picture strategic considerations via JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and April's Treasury Auction investor class allotments (not the kind of things that would move markets today, but can make for fine-tuning adjustments in long term forecasts)