To be clear, today's 30yr Bond Auction isn't officially the "last of the Treasury auctions," but it will be the last one this week.  On those occasions, we sometimes see bond markets react more in terms of price/yield movement than the auction performance might seem to suggest.  This can happen due to the relatively simple notion that the week's supply needs are out of the way and no more heavy lifting will be required until after next week's FOMC events.  The auction is at 1pm, but there's a ton of data before that, most of it at 8:30am.

The most significant item on the morning calendar is likely May Retail Sales, seen coming in at +0.4 after last month's +0.1.  Dips below  0 are rare in the past few years, so if wehappened to see one, it would help our cause.  on the upside, a break above 0.4 has been rare since late 2012, but the one example was a big one.  

Even on a big beat or miss, we're likely dealing with course corrections to pre-existing trading strategies heading into next week's events.  A revisit to 2.07 between now and then is just as possible as 2.31, but at the risk of stating the obvious, this trend continues to be bearish.  If it hopes to NOT be bearish, we'd like to see a break of 2.17.

Apart from Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Import/Export prices also occupy the 8:30 slot.  Prices are a relative non-event, and Claims are hit and miss, generally not doing much when they fall inside the late 2012 / early 2013 trend seen below.  They're expected to come in at 345k vs 346k previously.  Business Inventories is the morning's last report at 10am, but not a major market mover.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Jun 9 2013 - Fri, Jun 13 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Jun 10

10:00

Employment Trends

May

--

Em

111.7

Tue, Jun 11

10:00

Wholesale sales mm

Apr

%

0.0

-1.3

10:00

Wholesale inventories mm

Apr

%

0.2

0.4

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

32.0

--

Wed, Jun 12

07:00

MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

638.7

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

--

4.07

13:00

10yr Treasury Auction

--

bl

21.0

--

14:00

Federal budget, $

May

bl

-110.0

112.9

Thu, Jun 13

08:30

Import prices mm

May

%

0.0

-0.5

08:30

Export prices mm

May

%

0.0

-0.7

08:30

Retail sales mm

May

%

0.3

0.1

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

345

346

10:00

Business inventories mm

Apr

%

0.3

0.0

13:00

30-Yr Treasury auction

--

bl

13.0

--

Fri, Jun 14

08:30

Current account (Trade Gap)

Q1

bl

-109.0

-110.4

08:30

Producer prices, core yy

May

%

1.7

1.7

08:30

Producer prices, core mm

May

%

0.1

0.1

09:15

Industrial output mm

May

%

0.2

-0.5

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

May

%

77.9

77.8

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Jun

--

84.5

84.5

* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report

* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release

* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted

* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"