Limited economic data is the theme of the whole week and if not for the Treasury auction cycle, bond markets would scarcely have a reason to show up. This was made evident by the fact that Treasuries and MBS especially, didn't much move yesterday, even after a significantly stronger-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing report. The time between now and the FOMC Minutes later this month stands out as having a unique sort of inertia where the bond markets will need to be acted-upon by a large enough force to move them from their sideways slides. Without such a force, the consolidative patterns ahead of the FOMC Minutes (and the jobs report 2 weeks later) are already evident in Treasuries and MBS:
There's plenty of other data that could have an effect, but most of it won't show up until next week. Today will have to make due with International Trade (trade deficit reading) as the key piece of economic data, flanked by 3rd tier offerings that don't move markets. Chicago Fed's Evans speaks at 9:30am and the 3yr Treasury auction may cause a modest reaction in 10's and MBS, but it's not reversed by the close, it isn't likely to be much (at least not much that's caused solely by the auction).
Week Of Mon, Aug 5 2013 - Fri, Aug 9 2013 |
|||||
Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Mon, Aug 5 |
|||||
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
Jul |
-- |
53.0 |
52.2 |
Tue, Aug 6 |
|||||
08:30 |
International Trade |
Jun |
Bln |
-43.5 |
45.03 |
13:00 |
3yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Wed, Aug 7 |
|||||
07:00 |
Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
494.4 |
13:00 |
10yr Note Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Thu, Aug 8 |
|||||
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
336 |
326 |
13:00 |
30yr Bond Auction |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Fri, Aug 9 |
|||||
10:00 |
Wholesale Trade |
Jun |
% |
.03 |
-0.5 |
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report * Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release * (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted * PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index" |